And interest for warm weather fans on the other side of the pond! Those T850s are insane for the Newfoundland area.

Yes they are visible on the NH view.

Those warm anomolies are also heading for greenland, we'll get a big foehn if they blow eastward and end up with pool of very mild air between Greenland and Iceland.

Its a spectacular pattern. One for the picture frame.

The animations above won't refresh with new data, so it will be interesting to see how accurate this run turns out to be.

Toronto will get milder to from Xmas day onward so that might help us down the line here. 

I’m assuming some are preempting beyond the range? Which is fine and would make sense as the output in the range doesn’t suggest anything of note. Far from 

Not sure what you're seeing, Matty,  I haven't seen anyone suggesting holy grail anything for anybody or anything. A moderately cold weekend with the chance of snow showers for some then very mild over Christmas with the liklihood of a cool down thereafter to average or maybe below around New Year is what people are talking about, nothing more. Nobody's asking for polar bears on the TWO home page.

Admittedly, some posters have noted the extremely mild conditions in North America and suggested that this could have repercussions for us, including the possibility of a pattern change, possibly to cold. But that's quite tentative. I don't think anyone's losing the run of themselves. Let's face it, we're nearly all of us older at this stage and we know how a "nailed on" cold spell can dissappear even at +96 hours, particularly in our warmed world. I think that most of us have got some sense by now. Perhaps you're talking about people on Net Weather?

GFS Op 00z - N/NW gales for Sun 22nd as LP runs across Shetland to S Norway, affecting esp the east coast but not lasting. Then HP develops from the SW reaching 1040mb Germany by Boxing Day and the HP area covering Britain for the Christmas period - so dry and mild but MetO forecast is for cloud cover widely across Britain, just some breaks east of high ground in the north. LP develops S of Iceland Sun 29th with S/SW gales for Britain until Wed 1st when the LP advances to N Scotland with an active trough south to the Channel, and a reload of this pattern for Fri 3rd. HP is back from the SW Sun 5th - yesterday's forecast of cold NE-lies has gone away. 

ECM - similar to GFS but the HP persists past Sun 29th, and the LP is by then still winding up near Iceland.

GEM - like ECM

GEFS - briefly near norm, then a cool/cold couple of days before Christmas followed by a mild week, temps dropping back to norm Sun 29th. At that point ens members start to disagree substantially (mean still near norm) and the mainly dry period becomes mainly wet esp in W. 

Snow row figures only significant for the 2 or 3 days before Christmas but coupled to minimal amounts of pptn (matches forecast of wintry showers from the NW).

Meanwhile the met update now mentions exceptionally mild possible.

As for anything properly cold after New Year , still virtually no ensembles showing atm.

‘Temperatures could be exceptionally mild in places’ (text to 17th Jan).

As annoying as this is for cold weather people, it seems reasonable to me. 

GEFS 00Z

GEFS35

ECM 00Z

That's a +30 or +31 anomaly east of Hudson, easily the highest I've ever seen and damned near the +32 max that Wxcharts can handle. Note that their base is different to the others (a rather odd 79-10 period), but even so it's going to be in the mid 20s compared to 91-20.

From a coldie's perspective it's just a shame that the warmth looks likely to dissipate without forcing a cold plunge over us.

https://wxcharts.com/charts/gfs/nam/charts/850temp_anom_20241220_00_246.jpg? 

Greenland and Iceland seem to be under an almost constant cold (relatively speaking) this season so far, with that 'heat dome' over eastern Canada doing little to shift it. 

Afternoon. Mainly Quantum further up about high migrating to Greenland and potential beyond that. 

Don’t we need to wait for the missing data….? 😉

Absolutely. I'd bank the 12z GFS with that to mind. If we (or rather, I) can't have the proper cold and snow, at least let's go for the next best thing that is pleasantly mild, dry and benign and hope that eats up as much of this Winter as it can. I've had my fair share of wet and windy weather so far. 

Slowly-evolving weather expected through much of this period. Overall, there is a reduced chance compared with normal of wet and windy spells, with instead greater potential for colder episodes during the first half of January. While drier than average conditions are likely for many areas, some precipitation is still expected, which could lead to wintry hazards at times. Temperatures are likely to be close to or a little above normal overall, but this could be made up of a mix of milder and colder interludes.

I think this pretty much covers all bases! 

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=1&ech=192&mode=0&carte=0&ext=0