It's got it nailed I reckon🤣

Agreed completely, it's dank it's grey it's boring unseasonable and uninspiring. Having said that I would still take boring dry weather over boring and wet weather.

If the GFS 12z has it right then Xmas Day delivers a lot of sunshine for the heart of the country.

MetO, ever the pessimist, has a 'nasty' HP (copyright Jiries) with solid overcast, even if mild.

Birmingham https://weather.metoffice.gov.uk/forecast/gcqdt4b2x#?date=2024-12-25

Cambridge https://weather.metoffice.gov.uk/forecast/u1214b469#?date=2024-12-25

Sheffield https://weather.metoffice.gov.uk/forecast/gcqzwtdw7#?date=2024-12-25

NE England or SE Scotland may well be the place for Christmas sunshine

Newcastle https://weather.metoffice.gov.uk/forecast/gcybg0rne#?date=2024-12-25

Durham https://weather.metoffice.gov.uk/forecast/gcwzefp2c#?date=2024-12-25

St Andrews https://weather.metoffice.gov.uk/forecast/gfn082k8z#?date=2024-12-25

Whist it shows the zonal winds slowing, the mean is only back to normal for early January and only a handful of ensemble members show a reversal.  It could of course all change, but as it stands it looks like ‘business as normal’.

I’m not sure that marginally below average zonal winds (10 hPa) is that interesting to be honest.

Interesting as in a few days ago the zonal winds at 10hpa over the North Pole were very positive for most of December into January but now they are average or just below which makes a change. Now they are very positive and are forecast to go record breakingly positive over Xmas period! 

GFS Op 00z - strong W-lies going round N-ly for the next few days. Then HP arises from the SW 1035mb Germany Christmas Day also covering most of Britain (but MetO forecasting a cloudy high, best chance of breaks in the NE). From Sun 29th the HP declines and LP Scandinavia brings cooler air southwards. For the following week Britain is sandwiched between LP W of Scotland which draws on the colder Scandinavian air for the north of Britain and HP over the Alps bringing in mild air to the south. A sharp N-S temp division and gales generally; eventually the cold air wins and LP is 990mb N England Mon 6th with NE-lies.

ECM - like GFS until after Sun 29th when a weaker HP just about hangs on, the cold air from Scandinavia only reaching the Shetlands.

GEFS - cold to Tue 24th, mild to Sun 29th, after which ens agreement breaks down. The mean is then near norm, op run is wildly warm at least in the S, plenty of cold outcomes to balance that. Some quite heavy rain from Mon 30th esp in W, mostly dry before that (small peaks in the next couple of days during the cold spell suggest wintry showers and snow cover for hills). The freezing weather over Scotland shown by WX looks more like a 50% chance on GEFS.

I think that is still yesterday's update. It'll be interesting to see where they go with it in the coming days. TBH, the ECM ENS don't look particularly encouraging for cold weather fans, at least not in the south of the UK.

The GFS 06z op run has the recurring theme of colder air pushing south and the jet stream ends up split.

Yes. Same here. 'Page not found' on some of the charts. 

Yes, there main site seems to be having issues, but this one seems okay (perhaps a different server). I don’t think it has all the up to date charts but does have the 06z GFS data: 

https://www.wzkarten3.de/en/topkarten.php?model=gfs&lid=OP 

Here is a random one: 😛

https://www.wzkarten3.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_366_1.png 

Been having problems for weeks now. Seems more prevalent during the model release times.

In recent runs there’s something of a theme developing with cold Arctic air trying to push south but milder air pushing north, creating a classic battleground around the British Isles; the classic ‘forecaster’s nightmare’.  In global modelling terms the shifts of a few hundred miles from run to run are not significant, but obviously highly significant for a given location.  As you say, the interplay of the two air masses has the potential to produce cyclogenesis and maybe some more storms.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=20&model=gfs&var=25&run=0&time=285&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=20&model=gfs&var=53&run=0&time=14&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=1#mapref 

There are no definitive signs, or rather no persistent signs of any nothing notably cold or wintry in the extended. 

That is true, however there are recurring suggestions around or beyond the New Year period and have been for a few days now. It may come to nothing, but it has been modelled a few times especially on the GFS. I tend to keep an eye on the medium to long term ensemble range for trends, for example the t850hPA mean  value dipping below -5°C here ( which is why I’m watching that time period).

Meanwhile, in the more “realistic” and predictable time period we have storm Enol (courtesy of Meteo France but not in our naming cluster) bringing very windy conditions (and wintry showers to high ground in more western parts) today, then an exceptionally mild Christmas period.