I wouldn't disagree with that, having had a quick skim through the 12z GEFS. The control has a deep low over the south of the UK, with easterlies, and as for this particular chart - pretty much perfect, I would suggest!

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/20/15738/gens_8_2_312ihi3.png 

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=312&code=8&mode=0&carte=0&ext=0 

(Widespread sleet or snow from a very unstable WNW'ly flow)

One glance at the ensembles for 12 days out shows that no one scenario is currently “very likely”.

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/43/7347/gfs_0_288ysb7.png 

The control of the GEFS has strong westerlies with complex low pressure to the north, with sleet or snow across much of Scotland. A ridge then builds in from the west as the low clears away ESE'wards.

The members of the GEFS continue to be mixed, with a westerly bias. Today's clusters include:

Anticyclonic SW'lies: 5

Ridge to west with cold NW'lies: 5

High or ridge close to SW, westerlies: 4

Cyclonic SW'lies: 3

Ridge or high over Scotland/NI, NE'lies elsewhere: 3

Ridge to west, cold northerlies: 3

Trough crossing UK: 2

Ridge from east: 2

Ridge from south: 2

Complex low to north, cold westerlies: 1

Of note is that every member shows snow already on the ground over parts of Scotland, many quite widely. Another trend that's appeared this morning is for several members to show the UK lying under a weak ridge, a link between a Scandinavian High and the Azores High.

The standout run this morning is number 20, which shows an unstable northerly flow over the UK with fairly widespread sleet or snow. There is already snow on the ground for around a third of the UK.

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/87/24131/gens_20_1_288spe7.png 

Spot on - it's why I include the ensembles in these daily run-downs, as they're great for ascertaining how likely the op is to come off. All you can really say at the moment is that it's probable that winds from a westerly quarter will cover the UK, but there's low confidence in whether they'll be cyclonic, anticyclonic, or even a cold (i.e. snowy) NW'ly. And even then, there are still plenty of other scenarios on offer - the appearance in several of a high to the NE piques my interest, for example, even if it's less exciting for those in the north and/or west.

I'm certainly not going to say it's going to be a green and miserable Christmas yet, not that I would even if the ensembles were throwing their weight behind that outcome! The reason is - it's still 12 days out. We wouldn't trust a day 10 chart and we certainly shouldn't trust a single day 12 op chart. They're a rough guide, nothing more, at this range.

By this time next week I suspect we'll have decent confidence in the outcome, but that's a heck of a long way off in model terms!

Likely an outlier and unsupported at this stage. 

Some reached to the Midlands, surely this boring nasty HP that brought lot of rain and clouds to go away before Xmas.  Any pattern that not have HP over us is much welcome.   Like what Darren posted above Cold NW now stand at 5 so hope it increase further as we do well with NW polar air that bring show showers here, more sunshine, colder nights combo.

Probably a week early to make that statement I agree........hope my enterpretation of this mornings 0z is wrong....this winter is beginning to feel deja vu to me again hope I am mistaken..

I think its a pretty safe bet, all of the models ensembles look shocking for cold and snow in the South. The zonal train looks to be cranking up as well. V poor but not surprising. 

A safe bet that it'll look like Christmas 1988? I'd say it's pretty unlikely TBH. The closest in the current ensembles is the anticyclonic SW'ly cluster, and that's very much in the minority. A more general SW'ly flow is reasonably likely, but even that's still far from nailed on at the moment. Something from SW to NW (i.e. a westerly quarter) being likely is all you can say at the moment.

Anything else strays into the realms of "it always sucks, so it will this year too" territory! 🙂

As a reminder, here's what Christmas Day 1988 looked like. It was a mostly dry day down here - just a trace of rain, with a max of 12 , min of 9.1 and a mean pressure of 1025hPa at the London Weather Centre. Winds would have been SSW'ly, something which isn't really shown in the current output.

https://modeles3.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/1988/archives-1988-12-25-12-0.png 

Yeah basically no chance at all of a proper cold spell until at least the beginning of January I would say, brief colder interludes at best.

I admire that you have any optimism at all atm, but when you have 50 ensembles that barely go below -5c 850s for the next 2 weeks you know it's an up hill struggle for anything interesting snow wise.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=50893&model=ecm&var=2&run=0&lid=ENS&bw=1 

As I write this it's 2.7 outside, well below the 5 that GFS has for right now, or even the 4 that MetO has. None of the 6z GEFS have anything near that cold either, they're mostly 5s with the odd 4. And that's just a couple of hours out, last-minute things can pop up.

Until we get within the 10 day range I'm not going to take what the models show too seriously. If in the next 7 days they gradually firm up on a mild SW'ly flow so be it, but I'd say it's still far from a foregone conclusion at this stage.

thank you for being a calm voice of studied reason.

I'll second that, Saint. I very much appreciate Darren setting out the various different possibilities. It may end up mild and boring but no point in giving up when a range of outcomes is still perfectly possible.

Too much negativity both here and on Netweather. Looking at the GEFS although there is plenty of mild options there is a cluster around -5 850hPa which suggests something vaguely festive. I appreciate people are looking for a proper wintery spell with deep cold but that's always unlikely and the current setup looks a lot better than some of the horror shows of previous years.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_294_1.png 

It probably goes without saying to expect something different on the next GFS op run (and most of the ensemble members), but I said it anyway.

Snow depths here: 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfs.aspx?run=12&charthour=276&chartname=uksnowdepth&chartregion=uk&charttag=Snow%20depth 

I'd take it, anyway. No snow here on Christmas Day IMBY, but it snows a couple of days beforehand - nice and festive. Snow at this time of year, with all the lights twinkling away, always seems more special.

Will it survive to the 0z runs? I doubt it, but the fun thing is you never can tell. I doubt anyone was expecting the swing on the 12z GFS today, put it that way. 🙂

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/17/12743/gens_0_0_288rmo1.png 

See the massive colder pool from the NW want to move here and seem more colder than from the east? East normally colder than NW cold.  Just if we get days of exact cold polar NW flow and fast enough to travel shortest sea crossing from Greenland to here minus 16 uppers would be here with deep snow cover due to days of snow showers pilling in.  My area also get decent snow showers as did in 2021 from the wash at NE flow.

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/51/12162/gfs_0_264lmm3.png 

The GEFS control has an elongated high from the Azores to the Alps, with a weak trough approaching Scotland. Winds are a mix of WSW'lies and SW'lies as a result.

The other members of the GEFS continue to paint a variety of pictures today. They include:

Anticyclonic SW'lies: 5

High to SW, westerlies: 3

High or ridge over England and Wales, SW'lies to north: 3

Weak ridge over UK, westerlies: 3

Ridge to west, NW'lies: 2

Ridge from east, NE'lies over England and Wales: 2

Ridge from south, light winds: 2

Low to north, westerlies: 2

Complex low pressure over and surrounding UK: 2

There are plenty of one-offs, including cyclonic SW'lies and a trough crossing the UK.

The overall picture remains one of winds from a westerly quarter being the most likely, with high pressure close to the UK. Several members position the high/ridge to bring colder conditions, and a few members continue to show a cold, wintry picture with low pressure nearby.

Today's standout member is 19, which has snow moving southwards across the UK during Christmas Day in association with complex low pressure.

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/31/24379/gens_19_1_264rqm6.png