GFS Op 0z -  Storm Darragh moving across N Britain to reach Dover ((%mb Sun 7th, filling but bringing brief N-lies in its wake. By Mon 9th Hp from the Atlantic has moved in as a W-E ridge centred Scotland 1045mb, and E-lies along the Channel from the remains of Darragh by then near Sardinia. Pressure remains high over  or near Britain all the way to Sun 22nd but with variations; LP Portugal Fri 13th switches winds to the SE; a rebuilt HP cell lying N-S Tue 17th has S-lies for the W and N-lies for the E.

ECM similar at first but sharply different after Fri 13th as the HP withdraws SW-wards and by Mon 16th LP 965mb Orkney is flooding the N Atlantic with Arctic air getting to Scotland and likely to continue further south.

GEM - like GFS rather than ECM

GEFS - in the S, cooling but recovering to norm more quickly than yesterday (by about Wed 11th), thereafter agreement of ens members poorer with mean near norm in the middle of a wide spread of temps. Rain this weened, then dry, then increasing chances of rain from around Mon 16th but not in every run. In the N, recovering even more quickly and above norm for several days either side of Wed 11th; rain profile similar, snow only likely this weekend.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ecmhrai.aspx 

I'll have plugged into the menus later today. 

Bar the usual charts reading does look like milder conditions eventually prevailing. Usual SSW will be banded around to save winter now! 

Potential for some sliding lows still there but not for long lasting cold at the moment. Usual places for NWlys I think will do well.

Another Xmas written off and tossed in the 'sh*te' bucket - and I don't have that many left.

Oh, for a repeat of 2009 or 2010.

Agreed it's starting to look bleak now. Almost at the stage of writing off December at least now and then pretty much all the seasonal forecasts were that January and February would be the milder months!

Yes the ensembles never really showed anything decent,  and now are trending milder. Could be a very mild December now. 

Weird, I was just looking at the charts thinking it was looking fairly chilly for the foreseeable future. After tonight the GEFS ensemble mean 850mb temp  for London barely rises above zero for the next two weeks, and there are more runs below average than above, with a few mild outliers (include the op run) dragging the mean up.

I certainly can't see much sign of a "very mild" December. I'd put my money on a rather average one (which these days likely still means just above the long term CET average).

And the CFS 9-monther has a corking easterly arriving in a month's time.... 🙂

I get yout point, but it's been very mild start to the month even when the 850s haven't been particularly mild. Wouldn't surprise me if the cet is still above 6c by the 15th.

Daytime temps around 5-7c and night time mins of 0-2c are better than a blanket 12c with rain and wind, but zero chance of snow away from the highest peaks.

Would agree. The up coming cooler spell will probably do nothing more than pull the monthly mean down to near average again. GEFS, the 06z run at least, does show things trending milder again in its further reaches. 

The Atlantic low is slightly further south

The angle of 'UK' high is more aligned to advect warmer air from the south

The high over the North Pole looks a little stronger and ridges south a little more

Oh, FFS - back on the roller coaster!

😁

Based on recent runs, I wouldn't be confident predicting the outlook after the start of next week. That said, there doesn't look like any realistic prospect of pressure rising to our Northeast.

Near normal to cool/coldish temperatures over the next 7 days, depending how far North you are, looks to be as much as you can draw from the current MO.

GFS Op 0z  - storm Darragh dropping S-wards to Italy, filling but generating a cold pool over W Europe while HP from the SW extends a ridge across Scotland by Tue 10th. HP remains around the north and LP over Europe, E-lies for the south coast until  Sun 15th barring a short break Fri 13th followed by a re-load. The HP then departs S-wards and zonal W-lies set in, unsettled in the N, dry in the S but deeper troughs in the general flow make it more windy and less settled everywhere notably Sun 22nd which might even generate a small Channel low.

ECM - like GFS but HP never recovers from the breakdown of HP on Fri 13th and strong W-lies soon set in, no reload. The last chart (Tue 17th) has N-lies making an appearance around Iceland, too.

GEFS - in the S, after Darragh clears, cool for about a week, temps slowly recovering to norm in most runs chances of rain increase noticeably after Tue 17th. In Scotland temps rebound after Darragh and definitely mild around Tue 10th before dropping back. Chances or rain increase later as for England, but most marked in the W.

ECM Op

ECM AIFS

I expect cold weather and snow in March and April nowadays.