The organisers will probably cancel it if the forecast is very windy for the safety of the elves. 'Elf and safety, and all that.

(Sorry, it just had to be done.)

And before I get my coat, I'm interested to see on the GFS00z medium term a period of dry weather with an easterly wind for here. Although it might be chilly. it should at least dry out the ground.

Does look rather seasonal (and dry) down here though next week – which is welcome. 

Whilst that will be a welcome relief for some from the wind and rain, I just hope that this doesn't end up being a cloudy high like what we had at the beginning of November.

We are now approaching the winter solstice and at this time of the year, dull and overcast days can sometimes never actually get properly light all day here due to the very low Sun angle in the sky even at midday.

This means that if we do end up with a cloudy high rather than a clear high (which would at least increase the risks of frost and fog), we could be in for a very dark period ahead due to the resulting anticyclonic gloom here which for a lot of people, is likely to be very depressing indeed.

In the space of 63 hours the pressure on the GFS run in southern Scotland rises 68 millibars, from 978mb to 1046mb!

A low that deepens by 24 millibars in 24 hours is colloquially a bomb - wonder what the reverse is called? An explosive high, maybe!

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/learn-about/weather/types-of-weather/storms/weather-bomb 

A flatulent High

Logically an implosion

Logically, shouldn't the swift reduction in pressure be termed the implosion?

Sounds when you let rip a particularly noxious fart in bed and put your head under the covers till you go light-headed?

Er, so a friend told me.

🤣

The 6z GFS starts some potentially promising evolutions but quickly has the next low bustling throw to bring more crap.

But the 6z ensemble mean stays below the average until the end of the run, so all is not lost. Although it may be just cold rain.

ECM looks decent setup at 168 as well could be a NE setting up

I think what happens beyond the HP positioning itself over the UK early next week is still very much up in the air at the moment in terms of where it goes afterwards. To coin a much used phrase in this thread, more runs are needed.

ECM ensemble for London

https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/ecmwfens_display.php?x=0&y=0&run=12&ville=Londres&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&type=0&runpara=0&mode=1 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gfs/18_81_mslp850.png 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gefs.aspx 

Yes, a case of "at least it won't be mild".

I missed out on the November snow, and am hopeful to see some this winter....particularly in the light of The weak La Niña. Especially if a video I was sent was true that predicted Just 5 years to reach the 2 degree of warming tipping point of self perpetuating runaway green-house warming from methane release in oceans and Tundra melt and the wet bulb impacts of this on the tropics, making them unlivable.

🙂

Towards the end of the run the 18z GFS control builds quite a solid block from Scandinavia westwards which retrogresses towards Iceland, with a cold easterly across much of the country.

Certainly a displacement of the PV over the N. Pole.

You can see this in the strength of zonal winds @ 60 deg N. Last week they were forecast to remain strongly positive throughout December and now look below: - No reversal but definitely a weaker than average zonal flow...- maybe they have picked up on this stratospheric warming!?

One look at the graph shows why people aren’t talking about it. Bar the noise normal expected at the extended there is no suggestion of an SSW. The mean windspeed is marginally below the long term average but I doubt it would be of any statistical significance.

That could all change of course, and perhaps one of the outliers may from to fruition.