I said that yesterday , flat as a pancake with outside chances of a paltry northerly puff, but was deleted.

It wasn't as though I wasn't commenting on the models?

Well I am clearly missing something unless your analysis is based on one operational run from one model. Looks interesting when all models taken into consideration. High pressure never far from the scene, and all depends on placement and orientation.

So looks more like a waffle than a pancake, as far more ridges than flat

Maybe it was deleted because it was patently not an observation based on the totality of the model output, but on your preference for a rather unsubtle form of trolling?  🤔🙄

You didn't reference any model output and made a sweeping one liner which wasn't an objective summary. So your comment at best was posted in the wrong thread / forum or shouldn't have been posted at all. Therefore, I'll try asking you politely: please stay on topic and if you've got nothing to contribute at a given moment, don't post. Now please move on 

Pressure falling over the Med, usually is a sign that things are either turning colder and settled around the UK, or perhaps HP beginning to setup for some blocking.

EDIT: GDPS looks pretty decent only just checked

Any chance you could elaborate?

What I'm seeing in FI is that high stretching between the Azores and Iberia/Western France being likely to deflect the big low exiting the US over the north of the UK, flattening that little bubble of high pressure that's ridged northwards from the AH.

I'd love to be educated here (genuinely 👍) how I'm wrong.

Edit: GEM does look much more promising at +240

Edit 2: GFS shows just how it easily a promising synoptic can turn to mush, with high pressure in an increasingly good place then being toppled (caveat being that GFS runs often show a toppling scenario, then showing a 'Carlsberg' the next run)

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ecmhr.aspx?run=12&charthour=246&chartname=gh_na&chartregion=uk-region&charttag=500hPa%20/%20MSLP 

I suspect another false dawn. This feels like the last few winters are repeating themselves. Early cold spell and everyone gets excited, that hope slowly fades away as the weeks pass. Eventually its spring. 

GFS 12z ensembles showed this well yesterday. Looked a bit of a mess on the 18z. But feels like the 0z has a bit more clustering around that time again.

It’s a potential signal at least for us to focus on. 

GFS Op 0z - Today's HP slipping E into C Europe allowing troughs to move E-wards across Britain, a weak one Mon 2nd and deeper on Thu 5th, the latter with gales for all, weak again on Sat/Sun 7th/8th. Then HP comes in from the SW 1045mb Ireland, retreating by Sun 15th as LP over Scandinavia brings in some potentially cold NW-lies. 

ECM - like GFS but the trough Thu 5th only really affects Scotland and then that for the 7th/8th compensates by being deeper and further S 990mb Irish Sea

GEM - closer to ECM but pressure generally higher, effectively zonal around Thu 5th

GEFS - mild and mostly dry until Mon 2nd, dipping cold for a couple of days and then becoming wetter as temps recover to above norm until Sun 7th. Then many ens members cluster well below norm (esp in S) until end of run, but with enough staying higher (notably poor agreement in the N) that the mean is only a little on the cool side.

HTTPS://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_219_1.png 

Lovely.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK06_102_53.png 

It also appears (I've not got evidence to back this assertion) the northerlies have been more potent than in most recent years.

Certainly not the case for the southern half of the UK. It's true that northerlies do deliver wintry weather to Scotland and perhaps high ground over the rest of the UK during the Winter month, but they really have lost their punch at this end as they have become much more diluted or watered down. I seriously cannot remember the last time a northerly airflow brought squally snow to Kent (I think it was 2005). 

I don’t think you can argue against the evidence that warming oceans must ameliorate the surface cold, nor that the Arctic is less cold than it used to be.  If potency reflects the increased moisture content and potential instability of higher SSTs then yes, perhaps.

The 06z ensemble suite shows an unusually strong signal for a northerly flow at the 850hPa level from Sunday 8th: it looks like a switch is thrown next weekend as we swing from westerlies to northerlies. This is also reflected in the 2m temperature trend, with the mean maxima for here setting around 5c.

Yes agreed, not just this year but the last couple of years actually it feels like the Northerlies have been colder and clearer than I would expect. Not sure why this is but there has been a lot of very cold weather in Iceland in recent Winters.

The late 60s were like that  (e.g. early Dec 67)  but sadly much less potent these days with the exception of 2010.

From chart watching, I'd say the northerlies last year were extremely potent - but were mostly limited to the other side of the North Sea, with a semi-permanent deep low somewhere in the Baltic continually feeding Arctic air into Norway and Sweden. Britain narrowly missed out, only an occasional storm from that direction.

There used to be an assumption, justified in most years, that a Scandinavian High was a normal winter feature, and Britain would eventually get a taste of this via easterlies. But not last year and although it's rather early to be detecting winter patterns, the same sort of  Scandinavian LP has been prominent this year.