Not sure about mild now but app this morning again lowering the day maxes to 5 to 8 was 9 to 12 before. More like average to slightly below average.  

GFS Op 0z - Bert out of the way and filled to the NE but leaving small LP 1005mb Dogger Wed 27th. Pressure then rises over Britain but soon slips E-wards to Germany leaving Britain in S-lies with Atlantic troughs close to western coasts until Tue 3rd. A small cold pool in this circulation then combines with the Atlantic to promote a broad trough over Britain becoming centred 970mb S Ireland Thu 5th. This fills as it runs into N France, only to be followed by LP 965mb S Ireland Sat 7th, this time running NE-wards to Scotland and then yet another 980mb C Ireland Tue 10th, this one filling and becoming part of general LP across N Atlantic. 

ECM - agrees with GFS to Mon 2nd but the HP over Germany then collapses, allowing first a weak trough to move across Britain followed by a strong rise in pressure from the SW attaining 1035mb Cornwall to N Spain Thu 5th - no sign of the trough promoted by GFS on this date.

GEM - better match with ECM than GFS but with Atlantic troughs more active and closer to western coasts

GEFS - cool with some rain in the next few days, then a mild and dry period to Tue 3rd (though MetO is threatening fog). After this ens agreement is poor but the general tendency is for cooler (mean is below norm at end of runs Wed 11th) and increasing probability of rain esp in the S & SW, even an outside chance of snow by 11th 

Looks like there are two distinct clusters within the GEFS this morning for that period - one which keeps cold surface air over the SE, as the result of a ridge, and the other which is more progressive with much higher temperatures. This morning's op and control are in the former cluster.

I'd take a quiet "faux cold" spell any day over what we've just had!

Looking very standard fare.

Back on topic: 12z ICON looking very  interesting at the end. 

In the brief moments I have to look at the general output it seems there is so much inconsistency in the next evolution that it might be worth waiting and watching before jumping to any conclusions.

Looking to forecast beyond 144hrs is pointless at the moment, although I know what is the most likely outcome.

Yes indeed, I have always rated the ICON model. 🤣

To be fair and more serious though the UKMO 12z is much closer to the ICON output than it is to the GFS at that time point.

There’s not much sign of any sustained cold or blocking at a glance across the current output but it’s early days in terms of looking for wintry weather anyway.

The recent cold spell felt very hollow. 'Faux cold' certainly can deliver more intense frosts under the right conditions. 

The EC post ten day period hints high pressure pulling away westwards again, though not bring in much of an Arctic flow as of yet at least. But the broader pattern has been interesting this autumn so far, in that northerlies are followed by southerlies which in turn revert back the northerlies. Cool to warm and back again. No real 'average' weather going on. 

Yep looks like a very typical zonal spell of weather coming up and I understand that the polar vortex is forecast to remain strong with absolutely no sign of a stratospheric warming over the next few weeks, which whilst disappointing it's not that unusual for December. Therefore for those looking for a cold spell it might be sensible to come back in mid-January.

I’m not sure about this. In the reliable timeframe there is no zonality at all.  Even if there was I don’t see how you can write off half of winter?  Care to elaborate?

Agree with this. If anything the medium range output looks rather settled, chilly at times perhaps with ridging and/ or toppler potential. 

Nowhere near the classic zonal picture alluded to above. 

GFS Op - LP running up the Channel tomorrow (Wed) followed by a ridge of HP which however as it expands also moves east to Poland so by Fri 29th W Britain has close approaches from Atlantic troughs. By Tue 3rd the HP collapses and LPs assert themselves in the west 990mb Brittany and 990mb Rockall. These coalesce into a weak trough over Britain before on Thu 5th a deep LP near Iceland takes charge and projects troughs passing E-wards across Britain Fri 6th, Sun 8th and Tue 10th. The Azores HP then extends a ridge to Britain.

ECM - similar to GFS; the trough on Fri 6th is actually a well-defined LP 960mb off NW Ireland.

GEM - differs from GFS after Tue 3rd when the Atlantic trough is much weaker  and HP revives strongly 1040mb N Sea, then Germany and dominates British weather through to end of run Thu 5th.

GEFS - rain tonight in the S then a dry and mild period to Sun 1st after which ens agreement breaks down; mean temp stays near norm or a little cooler in the N but with a wide spread of forecasts; some rain in most runs at some time.

Day 10 mean very bleak for cold weather fans. Very deju vu feeling about this winter again. Recent years have also given an early cold snap and lots of optimism which gradually fades away as the Euroslug  takes hold for the rest of the season.  Good news for those struggling with heating costs though

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2024112600/EDM1-240.GIF?26-12 

I'm not sure it tells the full story if you look through the 50 runs. That said, I would never bet against the scenario you're describing.

Met O has quite deep troughing bringing a fairly cold plunge. ECM likewise but briefer and then goes flat. GEM has the cold plunge and then goes more HP dominated for the UK. GFS keeps it pretty flat throughout.

Yes GEFS shows barely a single member dropping below -5c 850 temps up to mid-December which suggests a very strong zonal pattern becoming established, therefore it would be difficult to see a cold spell pre-xmas occurring.

Possibly my imagination, but that cold plunge modeled seems to have come out of nowhere? Don't recall seeing it in previous runs, but I may not have been paying full attention. 

Again, it's not zonal - the lack of sinewaves on the GEFS should tell you that.

Also, it's a less bleak picture further northwards.

Manchester, for instance, has a multitude (and increasing in number the further into the run) of perts falling below -5c both over the next couple of days then from 3rd Dec through to the end. Indeed, the mean drops below 0c in early Dec, and again around the 7th/8th until the end of the run. Glasgow & Edinburgh are a degree or two lower.

I'm not trying to portray the output as anything great, but it's pointless and frustrating to others to create a false narrative about what the MO actually shows right now.