Although there could be a snow event next Tuesday.

That's easy, it'll only serve to ramp up the north Atlantic jet stream and produce cyclogenesis = frequent wet & windy conditions to the UK. Happens every time. Nothing comes good of deep cold over North America - unless you like stormy weather. 

Depends which side. If the south/west go cold then that could benefit us.

It doesn’t necessarily have to evolve like that, it depends on what the jet stream is doing. If it’s dipping south and then driving north towards western Greenland then it can promote WAA. It has happened before, although clearly not a favoured outcome, so not to be dismissed.

The broad EC consensus associates this outbreak with increasing heights over the Canadian Maritimes. As others have said, how this may influence NW Europe down the line is up for grabs. 

Oh better still get to -15C because sometimes at -10C we get less cold temperatures and not subzero like before.   Boring out look for now but hope to see something better next month.

O 

Could be an outlier, but across GFS and other output this persistent attempt to build another high pressure and then retrogress to Greenland is an interesting signal. 

You have to say after the last two days, the next chase is ON.

There is support in GFS ensembles around 240hrs. GEM does appear to also show a rebuild of the GH, but probably a bit to west based for us. 

Yep another good GFS op , it is the best model for picking up pattern changes so hopefully it's the start of something. Long way out still though.

Wondering those extreme mild shots helping us chances to see cold and snow chances this early winter start. I see 14 and 15 tomorrow then drop fast to 6C by Wed as before was showing 10C.  Really hope any charts give me chance to see proper snow events out of blue so to see my wife Xmas lights she put in my garden with snow cover.  

I really want snow at Christmas. I’ve never seen a proper white Christmas and it’s such a dream. UK weather always finds a way to not make it happen lol

GFS Op 0z: Current developments for  storm Bert, see its own thread. It's out of the way to the NE Wed 27th but leaving a local hang-back 995mb Yorks. Then a brief rise in pressure before an elongated trough sets up down the west coast Sat 30th 995mb, drifting slowly SE, followed by a much stronger rise in pressure 1050mb W Scotland Wed 4th. This hangs around, albeit with some (cold-ish?) E lies for S England until Mon 9th when it departs for Greenland, opening the gates to N-lies under the control of LP 995mb Finland (not yet shown as cold as for recent cold snap).

ECM - like GFS but the 'hang-back' is 995mb English Channel. The trough Sat 30th is there, but is indicated to drift S-wards rather than SE-wards leaving Britain on the edge of continental HP.

GEM - The trough Sat 30th morphs into a zonal W-ly flow with LPs passing over or close to N Scotland and (although it's just past end of run) no indication of incoming HP w/b Mon 2nd

GEFS - briefly very mild, but temp back to norm by Tue 26th, rising again through to Tue 3rd, after which any ens agreement breaks down; mean still near norm but op and control going very cold for a couple of days (control recovers, op doesn't). Plenty of rain, esp in SW, if anything a drier spell around Fri 29th. 

https://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2024112300/UW144-21.GIF 

It wouldn’t surprise me to see a few more eyebrow-raising op runs in the coming days.

It need to be mild there as it the only way we can get cold here had New York hit 21c in early Feb 1991 we had -5C here.  Toronto on app looking quite mild same temps as here to less cold temps but no subzero.  Just a while ago they were much milder than here during the gloom spell.

We've already got the decorations and lights up earliest we've ever done it. 

Some possible support for colder early dec.  Even this coming week is been lower to -3C was above 0C other day.   Nicosia ensembes see a sharp drop tomorrow as the cold air what we got here had move to the east Med region so expect maxes above 10C inland.