WX temps show the cold freezing air over Russia escaping in 2 directions, one to Scandinavia, one to the Balkans, with relatively mild air reaching in to the S Baltic. This is accentuated in week 2 with (typical for the modern winter) Greece colder than Britain. Wet for Atlantic coasts incl Britain in week 1, just damp over Europe; in week 2 the wet area retreating to the extreme west and a large dry area setting up from France all the way east to Russia.
GFS Op 0z - Storm Bert moving rapidly to Scandinavia and filling, just a small legacy LP 995mb Wed 27th off E Anglia. Then pressure rises over Germany / Poland typically 1035mb through to Sat 7th with S/SW-lies for Britain ep strong Thu 5th, troughs close to the far west. The HP centre then shifts to Shetland 1050mb Mon 9th with colder air beginning to penetrate N Europe and hints of a ridge to Greenland developing.
ECM - similar to GFS, but throw in a couple of cold pools trapped in the HP circulation Mon 2nd affecting Britain, and by Wed 4th a rise in pressure over Spain adds to that in Germany with more of a SW-ly cast for Britain
GEFS - temps back to norm for a few days, a milder period around Sun 1st, then wide divergence of ens members up to 10C either side of the mean which stays near norm. In most areas, after more heavy pulses of rain in the S in the next 2 to 3 days, not much until some runs show a wet period for the first week of Dec, though rain never really goes away for the far west.
War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce
Chichester 12m asl