The Weather Outlook

Remove ads from site

The Beast from the East
23 November 2024 10:22:37
06z is bollox. lets hope the ENS are better and send the jet south
Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

Hippydave
23 November 2024 10:28:52
I think the theme in the short to mid term at the moment is HP trying to establish over the UK or just to the North but ultimately failing to take hold and slinking off to the south east. There's been a few op runs that hold the HP over the UK, as well as a few ens members, but broadly it looks more likely that HP is too high over the near continent, either caused by the Atlantic or acting in conjunction with. 

It wouldn't take a lot to change things back towards a cooler settled spell and it's not like the Atlantic is in full flow, so longer term there's windows for something more interesting as per the 00z GFS op and some of the ens. ECM T240 is interesting but again with high pressure to the SE of the UK it's entirely possible a promising chart ends up with us in a mildish limbo. 


Home: Tunbridge Wells

Work: Tonbridge

roadrunnerajn
23 November 2024 10:30:39
Just my thoughts but haven’t the models especially the GFS showed decent cold set ups in the past at this time of year, especially late year. Could it be that the models find it hard to interpret how the intensifying cold to the north will interact with the jet and as a result we get quite a few cold options showing which decreases as December starts and the models have a better idea.

Just my observations looking at the charts over the years.


Germoe, part of the breakaway Celtic Republic. 80m asl
Ally Pally Snowman
23 November 2024 10:39:06

Just my thoughts but haven’t the models especially the GFS showed decent cold set ups in the past at this time of year, especially late year. Could it be that the models find it hard to interpret how the intensifying cold to the north will interact with the jet and as a result we get quite a few cold options showing which decreases as December starts and the models have a better idea.

Just my observations looking at the charts over the years.

Originally Posted by: roadrunnerajn 

It's definitely something the models have done the last few years.  The difference this year is we have actually had a decent cold spell.

Will we get another one? The Atlantic train seems to be struggling this year so I think we have more hope than normal.  


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Retron
23 November 2024 10:42:33

Anyone have access to the UKMO 168 ? Would like to see if the ridge can hold

https://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2024112300/UW144-21.GIF 

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmoeu.php 

It doesn't - classic west-based negative NAO setup.


Leysdown, north Kent
fairweather
23 November 2024 11:19:54

That's your second "Winter is Over" post in 2 days, Beast 🤣. At least give it until winter actually starts before you write it off.

Originally Posted by: Lionel Hutz 

I'm going to set a reminder to be the first to post a "winter's started" one on December 1st. 😀


S.Essex, 42m ASL
fairweather
23 November 2024 11:24:46

Pretty serious cool down for North America forecast towards the end of the month. Will be interesting to see what knock on effect that may have on this side of the pond with time. 

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 

Not much correlation usually but tends to be mild here when they have a freeze. We want mild advection up their East coast on up to Greenland really.


S.Essex, 42m ASL
fairweather
23 November 2024 15:17:20
GFS and ECM ensembles fairly solid on mild and quite wet for the next two weeks. No obvious trends after that at the start of winter.
S.Essex, 42m ASL
ballamar
23 November 2024 15:45:22
Models and ENS are liable to flip and flop at this time of year. Milder is always a likely outcome but imagine a few eye candy scenarios will keep popping up, hopefully on the 12z
The Beast from the East
23 November 2024 17:33:53

Models and ENS are liable to flip and flop at this time of year. Milder is always a likely outcome but imagine a few eye candy scenarios will keep popping up, hopefully on the 12z

Originally Posted by: ballamar 

The lack of posts says it all. Looks like normal service resumed.  If it cant be cold then I'd prefer a euroslug and heat pump


Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

Retron
23 November 2024 18:10:14

The lack of posts says it all. Looks like normal service resumed.  If it cant be cold then I'd prefer a euroslug and heat pump

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

Yes, back to the normal stuff - the best opportunity was several days ago now, when it looked like an omega block SW of Iceland might follow on from our cold spell. That didn't last for long, though, with the 50/50 split in the models (between an omega and the block moving away west) ended up as 5/95 in favour of the west-based NAO option. And as we know that's all too often followed by a SW'ly blast in our neck of the woods!

It's just a shame that switching sides of the jet from cold to warm so often comes with strong winds, as we're seeing today.


Leysdown, north Kent
White Meadows
23 November 2024 22:35:24
Hairdryer has taken hold and looks to do so for the current foreseeable. 

Probably worth checking out of here for a couple of weeks and hope things change. 

Gandalf The White
23 November 2024 22:50:22

Hairdryer has taken hold and looks to do so for the current foreseeable. 

Probably worth checking out of here for a couple of weeks and hope things change. 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 

Really?  The charts show the plug gets pulled on the hairdryer on Monday and then it’s around normal in the reliable timeframe.


Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



dagspot
23 November 2024 23:14:15
no hair dryers please.  There is literally zero hair
Neilston 600ft ASL
Snowedin3
23 November 2024 23:57:17
The GEFS showing a definite split in solutions towards the ends of the suite, all is not lost yet 🙂
Dean Barnes

Finstock, Chipping Norton, Oxfordshire

160m ASL 525 Ft

Quantum
24 November 2024 07:36:35
P1 for example does show how cold weather could come about fairly soon.
25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
24 November 2024 08:03:28
WX temps show the cold freezing air over Russia escaping in 2 directions, one to Scandinavia, one to the Balkans, with relatively mild air reaching in to the S Baltic. This is accentuated in week 2 with (typical for the modern winter) Greece colder than Britain. Wet for Atlantic coasts incl Britain in week 1, just damp over Europe; in week 2 the wet area retreating to the extreme west and a large dry area setting up from France all the way east to Russia.

GFS Op 0z - Storm Bert moving rapidly to Scandinavia and filling, just a small legacy LP 995mb Wed 27th off E Anglia. Then pressure rises over Germany / Poland typically 1035mb through to Sat 7th with S/SW-lies for Britain ep strong Thu 5th, troughs close to the far west. The HP centre then shifts to Shetland 1050mb Mon 9th with colder air beginning to penetrate N Europe and hints of a ridge to Greenland developing.

ECM - similar to GFS, but throw in a couple of cold pools trapped  in the HP circulation Mon 2nd affecting Britain, and by Wed 4th a rise in pressure over Spain adds to that in Germany with more of a SW-ly cast for Britain

GEFS - temps back to norm for a few days, a milder period around Sun 1st, then wide divergence of ens members up to 10C either side of the mean which stays near norm. In most areas, after more heavy pulses of rain in the S in the next 2 to 3 days, not much until some runs show a wet period for the first week of Dec, though rain never really goes away for the far west.


War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

Ally Pally Snowman
24 November 2024 08:13:00
Back to slim pickings again this morning. Ensembles look poor for cold just the odd ensemble.  Not particularly wet though so not all bad.
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
ballamar
24 November 2024 08:23:57

Back to slim pickings again this morning. Ensembles look poor for cold just the odd ensemble.  Not particularly wet though so not all bad.

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

3 sub -10 runs though ENS best watched OP runs for fun!

Quantum
24 November 2024 10:03:49
Is there something about the ICON6z?
25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

doctormog
24 November 2024 10:11:00

Is there something about the ICON6z?

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

In what context? It seems generally in keeping with the trend in the other output


ballamar
24 November 2024 16:31:25
Could be a fog fest on GFS op 
CField
24 November 2024 18:02:02
Desperately looking at the potential correlations for cold weather as we head into December, but it does appear to be becoming hard work again as per usual......hope it changes!
Favourite snowstorm

Famous channel low

Dec 31st 1978

Hastings East Sussex

Foot of level snow severe drifting

Next day max temp -4 degrees Celsius

Jiries
24 November 2024 21:17:20
Direct snow, back edge snow or cold rain on Wed here as the Nuneaton ensembles show spike with -3C 850's uppers normaly spike shoot up when it mild side but this time no.  App had been lowering the  temps to all sub 10C and 5c on Wed, was 6C yesterday and before that 10C.
ballamar
24 November 2024 21:27:56
Good old fashioned pub run to keep spirits up with a couple of -15 thrown in. Realistically mild for a couple of weeks at least with intense cold over Greenland

Remove ads from site