The Weather Outlook

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The Beast from the East
10 October 2024 00:21:44
Flooding is going to be the issue, rather than wind, same with Helene actually.  In fact in addition to the shear which has shredded this storm, Helene may have also dropped the SSTs in the area

Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

Gandalf The White
10 October 2024 00:22:41

The eye of hurricane Charley was about 40 miles south of the eye of Milton and that struck as a top end Cat 4 with sustained 150mph winds!

I think the point others are making here is that its far from exceptional for this part of Florida despite the hyperbole that the media are making. Sure it's a hurricane so naturally it's going to do a lot of damage and bring with it plenty of danger.

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 

That’s not true: it is exceptional for a major hurricane to move east across the Gulf of Mexico to hit the west coast of Florida ‘square on’: that increases the storm surge.

Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



Gandalf The White
10 October 2024 00:24:26

Flooding is going to be the issue, rather than wind, same with Helene actually.  In fact in addition to the shear which has shredded this storm, Helene may have also dropped the SSTs in the area

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

Helene did not drop the SSTs by much, largely because there’s record breaking ocean heat, ie it’s not just at the surface that it’s abnormally warm.

Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



The Beast from the East
10 October 2024 00:24:49

Sky News still peddling the ridiculous “Unsurvivable Hurricane” nonsense headline. 

I know Biden is almost as awful as Starmer, and it shows in his commentary as well

Safety first - absolutely - but let’s take a bit of perspective   

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

Putting aside your well documented political views, yes the media will go into their usual hyperbole and politicians will try and use it to gain votes, we saw that with Superstorm Sandy in the 2012 election, which may have helped Obama

But as we saw with Katrina, it can take a few days before we see the full impacts. In fact, the flooding from Helene only really hit later. 

Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

picturesareme
10 October 2024 00:49:24

That’s not true: it is exceptional for a major hurricane to move east across the Gulf of Mexico to hit the west coast of Florida ‘square on’: that increases the storm surge.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

It's trajectory might be unusual but the location it landed isn't. 

Matty H
10 October 2024 02:32:55

The eye of hurricane Charley was about 40 miles south of the eye of Milton and that struck as a top end Cat 4 with sustained 150mph winds!

I think the point others are making here is that its far from exceptional for this part of Florida despite the hyperbole that the media are making. Sure it's a hurricane so naturally it's going to do a lot of damage and bring with it plenty of danger.

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 

The phrase is something like “don’t feed them”

You’re quite correct, of course. 

Yate, Nr Bristol

TBFTEIARBSC

Matty H
10 October 2024 02:38:25
One point of note for me, and I don’t know if it’s exceptional or normal, is the sheer number of tornados ahead of the hurricane landfall. There have been dozens across southern Florida in particular that have caused quite a bit of damage. 
Yate, Nr Bristol

TBFTEIARBSC

+1
Gandalf The White
10 October 2024 06:08:19

It's trajectory might be unusual but the location it landed isn't. 

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 

The trajectory has been extremely unusual, the location is not the issue, except for the low-lying land that is typical of the area.

Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



Gandalf The White
10 October 2024 06:10:27

The phrase is something like “don’t feed them”

You’re quite correct, of course. 

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

I think you’ll find the expression is something about not making ignorant comments.

Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



Gandalf The White
10 October 2024 06:11:32

One point of note for me, and I don’t know if it’s exceptional or normal, is the sheer number of tornados ahead of the hurricane landfall. There have been dozens across southern Florida in particular that have caused quite a bit of damage. 

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

That’s odd, since you were saying last night that the storm was being over hyped and nothing unusual.

Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



Windy Willow
10 October 2024 06:11:48
According to the BBC weather forecast I should be seeing winds of 585mph here all day today and most of tomorrow and states Hurricane force winds!!! I believe someone has made a booboo somewhere as it's far too calm here, at least I hope so. If you don't hear from me later, we've been blown away!
South Holland, Lincs 5m/16ft ASL

When I saw corruption, I was forced to find truth on my own. I couldn't swallow the hypocrisy.

Barry White

It’s the end of the world as we know it (and I feel fine) - R.E.M.

+2
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
10 October 2024 06:36:41

According to the BBC weather forecast I should be seeing winds of 585mph here all day today and most of tomorrow and states Hurricane force winds!!! I believe someone has made a booboo somewhere as it's far too calm here, at least I hope so. If you don't hear from me later, we've been blown away!

Originally Posted by: Windy Willow 

There were 300+ mph winds in Oxford Circus apparently! An apology and promise to fix on Radio 4.

Meanwhile I see that Marjorie Taylor Greene, senator for Georgia, is accusing the US Government of fixing the weather so that storms only strike Republican areas.🤣🤣🤣

Back to the serious stuff. 2 million without power being quoted; does anyone have an actual figure for the storm surge? This is an up-to-date ESTIMATE issued 0200 EDT by NHC (0600 BST, I think) with maxima 5-7 feet; the southward shift of the track spared Tampa Bay the worst, where funnelling could have magnified the effect.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/031926.shtml?peakSurge#contents 

War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

+1
Retron
10 October 2024 06:52:43

According to the BBC weather forecast I should be seeing winds of 585mph here all day today and most of tomorrow and states Hurricane force winds!!! I believe someone has made a booboo somewhere as it's far too calm here, at least I hope so. If you don't hear from me later, we've been blown away!

Originally Posted by: Windy Willow 

It'll be higher than that, the Beeb has 14598mph winds here, but it's clipped off so looks like 459(and half an 😎.

Makes me wonder why they don't have some code which just leaves the display blank if it's over a certain (impossible) amount!

https://ukwct.org.uk/weather/bbc.jpg 

UserPostedImage

EDIT: The Beeb has an article on it now. Seems temperatures have been affected in some places too, 404C!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c0kjrp2rngzo 

Leysdown, north Kent
+1
Russwirral
10 October 2024 07:36:35
So starting to review the aftermath, and from what i can tell, from footage, news highlights etc (and I may be corrected if news comes in) that this really has been nothing more than a sub par hurricane.  It was already breaking apart way before landfall in fact, it seems the most dangerous part of the storm was the storms in front of the hurricane, maybe the outer bands (what was left of them) bringing lots of tornadoes. 

Im saying this with a comparison of what that area of the world is used to in terms of hurricanes. Rainfall amounts were expected to be 10cm-15cm widely with some areas seeing up to 30cm... by hurricane standards, thats not that much.  It would be interesting to see what volumes actually fell as the Radar looked mostly dry for the south of florida

The area is used to tropical thunderstorms that quite happily drop large volumes in short periods.  By comparison, the typhoon that hit Asia the other week was expected to drop almost a metre of rain to some parts.

I can see a sport stadium roof has been lost, but apart from typical windy destruction (luckily) i think florida has probably escaped a catastrophe, and that reality was, the media and governments were responding to how Milton revved up way out at sea, rather than the forecast that was for a weakened if not dying storm event.. the latter is what played out.

Weather station:

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 

Matty H
10 October 2024 07:37:02

I think you’ll find the expression is something about not making ignorant comments.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

But here we are, and your posts remain littered with them. Ah well

Lots of reports coming in from people that refused to leave home and have somehow survived this unsurvivable storm

Yate, Nr Bristol

TBFTEIARBSC

NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
10 October 2024 07:39:36
Well at least the temp isn't 451F.

UserPostedImage

Vale of the Great Dairies

South Dorset

Elevation 60m 197ft

+2
Roger Parsons
10 October 2024 07:44:33

Well at least the temp isn't 451F.

Originally Posted by: NMA 

😁 Not everyone will get that, Nick! Tho' on this forum, more than the average should.

RogerP

West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire

Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.

William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830

+3
Devonian
10 October 2024 07:54:40
Checking a few weather forums I see it turns out this hurricane is quite high on the 'Wise after the event' scale.

'.

+1
Russwirral
10 October 2024 08:07:57
yeh,i agree...

TBF, how it grew so rapidly surprised alot of meterologists... always best to err on the side of caution with a storm that changes its mind so quickly.

I think theyve dodged a bullet, and some idiots wont really appreciate how bad things could have gone, i just hope this doesnt setup an ignorant situation in the future.. the season is only just getting started, and the gulf is primed with higher SSTs...

Weather station:

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 

+1
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
10 October 2024 08:13:15
An 11-foot storm surge killed ca 300 people around the N Sea in 1953  ... only a dozen miles difference in track could have produced the same in Tampa Bay
War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

The Beast from the East
10 October 2024 08:30:41

Meanwhile I see that Marjorie Taylor Greene, senator for Georgia, is accusing the US Government of fixing the weather so that storms only strike Republican areas.🤣🤣🤣

Originally Posted by: DEW 

Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

Saint Snow
10 October 2024 09:52:49
The hurricanes are spreading!

Most major areas in the UK are forecast hurricane force winds imminently, with Edinburgh suffering the worst with gusts up to 17,246mph, followed by Cornwall at 16,309mph and Liverpool 15,227mph. London, by comparison, gets away with mere13,508mph breeze.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c0kjrp2rngzo 

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

scillydave
10 October 2024 10:12:16

So starting to review the aftermath, and from what i can tell, from footage, news highlights etc (and I may be corrected if news comes in) that this really has been nothing more than a sub par hurricane.  It was already breaking apart way before landfall in fact, it seems the most dangerous part of the storm was the storms in front of the hurricane, maybe the outer bands (what was left of them) bringing lots of tornadoes. 

Im saying this with a comparison of what that area of the world is used to in terms of hurricanes. Rainfall amounts were expected to be 10cm-15cm widely with some areas seeing up to 30cm... by hurricane standards, thats not that much.  It would be interesting to see what volumes actually fell as the Radar looked mostly dry for the south of florida

The area is used to tropical thunderstorms that quite happily drop large volumes in short periods.  By comparison, the typhoon that hit Asia the other week was expected to drop almost a metre of rain to some parts.

I can see a sport stadium roof has been lost, but apart from typical windy destruction (luckily) i think florida has probably escaped a catastrophe, and that reality was, the media and governments were responding to how Milton revved up way out at sea, rather than the forecast that was for a weakened if not dying storm event.. the latter is what played out.

Originally Posted by: Russwirral 

On the rainfall front some areas had over 18 inches with a return period of a 1000 years. I saw one station recorded 9 inches in the space of an hour - that's bonkers!

Currently living at roughly 65m asl North of Cowbridge in the Vale of Glamorgan.

Formerly of, Birdlip, highest village in the Cotswolds and snow heaven in winter; Hawkinge in Kent - roof of the South downs and Isles of Scilly, paradise in the UK.

Steve
10 October 2024 10:32:03

The hurricanes are spreading!

Most major areas in the UK are forecast hurricane force winds imminently, with Edinburgh suffering the worst with gusts up to 17,246mph, followed by Cornwall at 16,309mph and Liverpool 15,227mph. London, by comparison, gets away with mere13,508mph breeze.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c0kjrp2rngzo 

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

That would blow the cobwebs away ! (and the spiders that made them....and the house that the spiders lived in !)

fairweather
10 October 2024 10:43:18

And I'd imagine the BBC are banging on the global warming being responsible drum as they usually do.

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 

Everything I've heard about being global warming related has been perfectly sensible - more energy available so more intensity possible but not particularly more frequent.

S.Essex, 42m ASL
+1

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