NHC were talking about it 😂 

"Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

200 PM EDT Tue Oct 1 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 

Storm Kirk, located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean.

1. Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:

A broad trough of low pressure is producing a large area of 

disorganized showers and thunderstorms from the southwestern 

Caribbean Sea into the southern Gulf of Mexico. Environmental 

conditions could support some gradual development of this system, 

and a tropical depression could form towards the end of this week or 

this weekend as the broader disturbance moves fully into the Gulf of 

Mexico. Interests along the U.S. Gulf Coast should continue to 

monitor the progress of this system.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. 

* Formation chance through 7 days...

medium...40 percent."

This was from last Sunday....

PM EDT Sun Sep 29 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical

Storm Isaac, located several hundred miles northwest of the Azores,

on Tropical Storm Joyce, located over the central Atlantic Ocean,

and on newly formed Tropical Depression Twelve, located over the

eastern Atlantic Ocean.

1. Western Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure located over the western Caribbean Sea

is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental

conditions appear to be conducive for gradual development, and a

tropical depression could form around the middle part of this week

while the disturbance moves slowly west-northwestward. This system

is then expected to move northwestward into the Gulf of Mexico

during the latter portion of this week. Interests in the

northwestern Caribbean Sea and along the U.S. Gulf Coast should

monitor the progress of this system.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.

* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

They rarely mention potential intensity of a potential storm until a storm actually develops. Tally was saying this popped up out of nowhere when actually the NHC had been talking about it for almost a week. 

The track will be very important, especially to the millions living between Tampa and Naples.

Hurricane Milton Tropical Cyclone Update

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024

1055 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024

...MILTON RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate

that Milton has strengthened to a category 5 hurricane. The

maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 160 mph (250 km/h) with

higher gusts. Data from the aircraft also indicate that the

minimum pressure has fallen to 925 mb (27.31 inches).

https://modeles12.meteociel.fr/modeles/icon/archives/2024100712/icon-0-108.png?12 

A subtropical cyclone near portugal?

A storm surge of greater than 5ft on much of the west coast of the Florida peninsula could be problematic, especially given the 8 to 12 feet surge in the Tampa Bay Area.

Not sure what it will be when it makes  landfall but...gosh! 🫨😧

It’s intense but it is nowhere near the record of 190 mph, in fact it wouldn’t be in the top 20.

Winds are now 175mph!!!

Despite packing 175mph it's still rather small 

Hurricane Patricia back in 2015 had the highest sustained winds ever recorded in a tropical cyclone - a staggering 215mph (gusts would've been higher) at their peak.

So Milton has a long way to go  although that being said the rapid intensification is the 2nd or 3rd fastest on record.

Tampa would not be on my list of places to be visiting mid week!

The mere existence of Patricia begs the question; can we get a slightly stronger one in the west pacific?

I think we can - Typhoon's Tip and Haiyan were both close to sustained speeds of 200mph and the frequency of super typhoons is increasing. 

I'd guess it's just a matter of time before the perfect conditions occur snd the warner the world gets the more likely that is.

Perhaps more amazing as I think I read Hurricane Helene cooled at least some parts of the exceptionally warm GoM a little.

NHC at 4PM CDT - show current max sustained gusts of 180mph!? Also, in in 12hrs time Hurricane Milton is expected to strengthen to 185mph if you read the discussion - wow! never can I remember a hurricane that strong and intensify that quickly - must have caught meteorologist off guard surely? Yet there is no such thing as a CAT 6 right!?

Strongest Atlantic hurricane had 190mph sustained winds, and numerous others have had 180/85mph winds.

I think Milton isgoing to at least rival hurricane Allen's 190mph, and potentially exceed it setting a new record.

Yeah - well only a few days ago it was forecast to strengthen to a mere cat 3 or maybe 4 and look where we are at now?! Max sustained wind  of 180mph and there is more strengthening on it's way.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/072058.shtml? 

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/weather/live-blog/hurricane-milton-live-updates-rcna174253 

Not sure I’ve ever seen a forecaster almost in tears; he’s stunned by the rate at which Milton is intensifying. Note that he doesn’t shy away from referring to global warming as the reason for the record ocean heat which has been fuelling these rapid developments.

The storm surge looks pretty dangerous again.