The Weather Outlook

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DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
Thursday, June 13, 2024 4:12:44 PM
Off to a slow start - only two years in the last 50 have made it to June 17th without a N Hemisphere named storm. But a couple of current disturbances may just get going by then.

1 - invest 90L is currently a large area of intense thunderstorms over Florida (solving their drought problem BTW) and might just develop off E Florida later. Sea temps favourable but wind shear against.
2- on the same front lying across the Gulf of Mexico NOAA gives a 30% chance of a TD in the Gulf of Campeche in the next 7 days. Some existing spin may help. If either of these gets named, it will be Alberto.

Also an outside chance of development on the Pacific side of Mexico connected to the above.

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2024/06/the-atlantic-is-starting-to-bubble/ 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Roger Parsons
Thursday, June 13, 2024 4:19:28 PM
Read this AP piece today on Yahoo:
"The strong El Nino weather condition that added a bit of extra heat to already record warm global temperatures is gone. It's cool flip side, La Nina, is likely to breeze in just in time for peak Atlantic hurricane season, federal meteorologists said.
The National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration Thursday pronounced dead the El Nino that warms parts of the central Pacific. The El Nino, while not quite a record breaker in strength, formed a year ago has been blamed, along with human-caused climate change and overall ocean warmth, for a wild 12 months of heat waves and extreme weather." Etc.

Cooler hurricane-helping La Nina to replace the phenomenon that adds heat to Earth
https://www.yahoo.com/news/bye-bye-el-nino-cooler-130317957.html 




 
RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
lanky
Thursday, June 13, 2024 4:45:17 PM

Read this AP piece today on Yahoo:
"The strong El Nino weather condition that added a bit of extra heat to already record warm global temperatures is gone. It's cool flip side, La Nina, is likely to breeze in just in time for peak Atlantic hurricane season, federal meteorologists said.
The National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration Thursday pronounced dead the El Nino that warms parts of the central Pacific. The El Nino, while not quite a record breaker in strength, formed a year ago has been blamed, along with human-caused climate change and overall ocean warmth, for a wild 12 months of heat waves and extreme weather." Etc.

Cooler hurricane-helping La Nina to replace the phenomenon that adds heat to Earth
https://www.yahoo.com/news/bye-bye-el-nino-cooler-130317957.html 




 

Originally Posted by: Roger Parsons 


Quite so. But the El Nino of 2015-6 was stronger than the 2023-4 one and yet the SST's are noticeably higher this time round by about 0.2-0.3C (which is vast in SST terns) showing just how rapidly AGW is making its mark
Martin
Richmond, Surrey
+1
DEW
  • DEW
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Monday, June 17, 2024 4:26:14 PM
The storm in the Bay of Campeche referred to above has been given a sudden upgrade; 70% chance of cyclone formation in next 48 hours. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?atlc 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
picturesareme
Tuesday, June 18, 2024 12:03:54 AM
Depression one has been made official 
DEW
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Thursday, June 20, 2024 9:25:35 PM
It became TS Alberto, with big storm surges
https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2024/06/flash-floods-hit-mexico-coastal-flooding-reaches-texas-as-alberto-makes-landfall/ 

Two other disturbances to watch, one in the Gulf following Alberto, one moving to Carolina from the Bahamas, 40% probability of development but neither likely to be more than a passing TD.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
DEW
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Thursday, June 27, 2024 5:51:39 AM
Instead of flabby low pressure in the Caribbean (which still caused serious flooding if not stormy weather), there's now a promising disturbance crossing the Atlantic from Africa in the traditional way for hurricane formation , with conditions 'unusually conducive' for development. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?atlc 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+1
DEW
  • DEW
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Saturday, June 29, 2024 6:33:03 AM
The above is now TS Beryl and expected to arrive in the Windward Islands as a hurricane Sun into Mon continuing across Jamaica on Wed. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/024303.shtml?cone#contents

The current disturbance in the Caribbean may survive a crossing of the Yucatan peninsula and if so is likely to revive as a TD/TS in the Bay of Campeche.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+1
DEW
  • DEW
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Sunday, June 30, 2024 8:09:10 AM
TS Beryl upgraded to hurricane category 1, and intensifying rapidly - expected to be major hurricane category 4 when it reaches Barbados later today.
Ominously, this is the furthest east any hurricane has formed in June since 1933; and that year is the most active hurricane season on record.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
DEW
  • DEW
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Monday, July 1, 2024 7:22:18 AM
[ul]
Hurricane Beryl breaking every date record in sight[/ul]
[ul]
https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2024/06/category-4-beryl-on-collision-course-with-windward-islands/ [/ul]

[ul]
Earliest hurricane so far east in the Atlantic (June 29, longitude 49.3°W; old record 1933 Trinidad Hurricane, June 27, longitude 58.9°W)[/ul]
[ul]
Earliest Category 3 hurricane so far east in the Atlantic (June 30, longitude 53.9°W; old record Bertha, July 7, 54.1°W)[/ul]
[ul]
Earliest Category 4 hurricane in the Atlantic (old record Dennis, July 8, 2005; next earliest was the Great Bahamas Hurricane, July 26, 1926)[/ul]
[ul]
First storm on record to undergo rapid intensification (strengthen by at least 35 mph in 24 hours) in the tropical Atlantic east of the Lesser Antilles during the month of June[/ul]
[ul]
Earliest storm on record to undergo rapid intensification of at least 55 knots (63 mph) in 24 hours (for the 24 hours ending 18Z Jun. 30)[/ul]


Meanwhile TS Chris is giving E Mexico a soaking, but soon moving inland and fading out; another disturbance following in Beryl's tracks may be disadvantaged by cool water stirred up from the depths by Beryl.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
picturesareme
Monday, July 1, 2024 3:55:30 PM
Sustained winds in Beryl now 150mph!! 
Bow Echo
Monday, July 1, 2024 7:31:02 PM
16:00z METAR from Grenada Maurice Bishop International Airport. TGPY 011600Z 25080G140KT 500 -SHRA BKN010CB BKN014 OVC032 BKN 26/26 Q1003 TEMPO SHRA RMK VCSH-ALQDS CB-ALQDS  Gusting 140KT...wow. Calmed down a fair bit now but that will have been horrible.
Steve D. FRMetS
Burton Latimer, Kettering, Northants


doctormog
Monday, July 1, 2024 7:40:59 PM

16:00z METAR from Grenada Maurice Bishop International Airport. TGPY 011600Z 25080G140KT 500 -SHRA BKN010CB BKN014 OVC032 BKN 26/26 Q1003 TEMPO SHRA RMK VCSH-ALQDS CB-ALQDS  Gusting 140KT...wow. Calmed down a fair bit now but that will have been horrible.

Originally Posted by: Bow Echo 


Ouch!
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
picturesareme
Tuesday, July 2, 2024 12:44:06 AM
Now at 155mph sustained!! Very close to a Cat 5 😲
picturesareme
Tuesday, July 2, 2024 1:50:48 AM
161mph winds have been observed in the NE eye wall just now making it a Cat 5 
Jiries
Tuesday, July 2, 2024 2:18:43 AM
Wonder if this will help to shake up and start pushing stupid HP that always love to stick around GL to mid Atlantic to get a shove correctly eastward?
picturesareme
Tuesday, July 2, 2024 9:21:06 AM
Sustained winds now 165mph!!! What a beast 
Hungry Tiger
Tuesday, July 2, 2024 10:02:17 PM

Sustained winds now 165mph!!! What a beast 

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 


Incredible that is. Jamaica is going to get a hammering 🔨.    😞 
Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


The Beast from the East
Wednesday, July 3, 2024 12:04:53 AM
Been a long time since Jamaica was hit by a significant hurricane. Surprised it’s got so little coverage considering the tens of thousands  of brits with Jamaican heritage over here 
Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President
GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
Wednesday, July 3, 2024 8:07:50 AM

Been a long time since Jamaica was hit by a significant hurricane. Surprised it’s got so little coverage considering the tens of thousands  of brits with Jamaican heritage over here 

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Exactly. The media only seem to take real interest in hurricanes if they are going to hit the USA. Then they are all over them. As if their lives matter more!?
Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
+1
picturesareme
Friday, July 5, 2024 1:34:44 AM
Whilst the BBC have been banging on about global warming with regards to Beryl the East Pacific hurricane season has had its slowest start to the season in at least 60 years and since reliabile records began!! But i doubt that'll feed into the GW agenda on the BBC
DEW
  • DEW
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Friday, July 5, 2024 6:23:18 AM

Whilst the BBC have been banging on about global warming with regards to Beryl the East Pacific hurricane season has had its slowest start to the season in at least 60 years and since reliabile records began!! But i doubt that'll feed into the GW agenda on the BBC

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 


The balance between Atlantic and Pacific is interesting - last year there was a much larger number in the Pacific than the Atlantic but they didn't make news because they generally curve away from the Mexican coast. The BBC may have a point though, given the record SSTs in the central Atlantic this year, all set up to fuel hurricanes.

But we're not even into the official hurricane season yet so I'll reserve judgement on the pattern for this year.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
picturesareme
Friday, July 5, 2024 12:36:07 PM

The balance between Atlantic and Pacific is interesting - last year there was a much larger number in the Pacific than the Atlantic but they didn't make news because they generally curve away from the Mexican coast. The BBC may have a point though, given the record SSTs in the central Atlantic this year, all set up to fuel hurricanes.

But we're not even into the official hurricane season yet so I'll reserve judgement on the pattern for this year.

Originally Posted by: DEW 


But we are in the official hurricane season. It runs from June until November.
Gandalf The White
Friday, July 5, 2024 12:55:27 PM

Whilst the BBC have been banging on about global warming with regards to Beryl the East Pacific hurricane season has had its slowest start to the season in at least 60 years and since reliabile records began!! But i doubt that'll feed into the GW agenda on the BBC

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 


Has it?  As the season has barely started I find that remark questionable.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


picturesareme
Friday, July 5, 2024 1:13:19 PM

Has it?  As the season has barely started I find that remark questionable.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


Feel free to take it with the met office who posted about it. I'm sure you know more than them 😉 

https://x.com/metofficestorms/status/1808966043584360895 

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