https://x.com/peacockreports 

GFS Op - current LP moving to Scandinavia by Tue 11th but with N-lies lingering behind. HP for one day only, Wed 12th,A before trough moves in from the Atlantic, deepens and covers Britain 995mb by Sat 15th and, while filling a little, persists to Sat 22nd. It then moves off NE-wards, and the final chart is almost the same as that for the 11th.

ECM - As GFS; from Sat 15th the LP while still covering Britain has a larger extension across the N Sea

GEM - the least pessimistic of the big three with Britain under a col from Sat 15th, the trough splitting into two centres, one near Rockall and the other over France

GFS - cool for a week and no better than norm thereafter, and agreed by most ens members. Rain in moderate amounts in most places at any time, indications of a drier period for N & W for a couple of days around the 12th.

Met Office seeing the glimmer of settled weather in its outlook also.🤞

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk&ved=2ahUKEwj5qvmrgs6GAxVlR0EAHbeBDNAQFnoECAYQAQ&usg=AOvVaw1nJu08txjdxEn5YWxs-0T2 

Having said that it is currently beautiful with clear blue skies but I suspect the usual pattern of the last few days of cloud building as soon as the sun gets higher in the sky will continue, as there is an awful lot of moisture around still. 

2013 was the first decent summer in many parts of the UK since 2006, after six poor/very poor ones on the bounce. Mind you, it would have been very hard to have had one that was worse than 2012. That really is the worst summer I can clearly remember in the 44-and-a-half years of my life thus far.

Going back further, I seem to recall that summer 1990 started with a rather disappointing June and early July wasn't great either. However, things changed notably in mid July with a much better second half of the month, and the then hottest day on record in the UK was recorded in the early days of August. I don't think the remainder of August was too bad either for the most part, although not quite as warm.

Even that 2013 summer essentially ended around the last week of July.

(But we had a great spell in the July)

2014 was a similar pattern.

Every day for at least the past week has hit at least 19C down here with most into the low 20's so i wouldn't call it well below let alone 'extraordinary'. Could be a few notable chillier days in the coming week mind. 

Indeed, if these recent CET maxima are "extraordinary", what on earth would you call the maxima we had in early May, which went without much comment in the media at large? Britain isn't in the Med, etc, etc.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/graphs/2024/daily_maxtemp_cet_2024.png 

(I do appreciate for summer fans it'll be disappointing, but they've really been spoilt of late. Try being a winter fan - we set several warm CET daily records last winter. Chances of us setting even a single cold record in the summer? Zero, I'd say.

Also, remember the Euro monsoon, which traditionally affects the UK in early June. Looks to have been the case up north, but it's missed us down here so far... the models show cooler and wetter weather even here next week, but I don't have much faith!)

There hasn't been that much rain or many showers where I live, Darren. I suspect that NW corner has had most of what showers there have been.

It has certainly been cooler than average here as it has been virtually everywhere since last Sunday, but most of what rain has fallen has been in the form of showers rather than persistent rain. I have seen June start much worse than this in my time, and in the recent past too.

In the meantime, we have a classic "if only it were winter" synoptic scenario coming up in the next few days as the models continue to bring us absolutely no sign of anything even remotely resembling "summer" on the horizon, at least in the shorter term.🤢

Where are those northerlies in the winter though, when we're actually looking for them to deliver some cold weather here?😡

Thr UK has had no luck recently that's for sure.  I'm really depressed about this summer think it will be an absolute stinker 2007 esque . June looks a complete write off already i think July will go the same way as the HLB and omega block just aren't shifting.  My prediction is we won't hit 28c until August maybe not at all. One of the worst summer's of all time on the way.

Copious flooding as well.

The absolute lack of any actual or remotely sustained heat beyond a day or so far is utterly noteworthy. 

It certainly doesn’t look great if your definition of summer is long periods of very warm or hot, sunny weather. The point here, I think, is how expectations have gradually shifted as a result of climate change. It’s perhaps noteworthy for this reason: I’m pretty sure we’re still around what was average in the 1961-1990 base period.

https://news.sky.com/story/uk-had-its-warmest-may-and-spring-on-record-met-office-figures-show-

6https://www.rte.ie/news/weather/2024/0605/1453123-may-weather/  

Say what you like but we've we've has the  warmest May on record both sides of the Irish Sea. Pretty remarkable given that it's been miserable for alot of the time.

Helen Willetts on Countryfile would agree with you. Last night she attributed the high average temp for Spring to the mild nights that we've had, and in particular pointed out that large parts of the country had had no frost during this time.

GFS Op - consistent with the output from the last few days. Current LP moving to Scandinavia trailing N-lies behind it, HP one day only on Wed, then trough from the NW reaching Ireland 990mb Sun 16th and staying to Wed 19th. Some rather indeterminate weather follows, eventually resolving to show Britain in a col Sun 23rd between LPs on the Atlantic and over Denmark. This persists but with HP approaching S England.

ECM - as for GFS until Tue 18th when the LP suddenly moves E-wards to Luxembourg 1000mb Thu 20th with some quite warm air from E Europe circulating around it this reaching Britain.

GEM - closer to ECM; the trough arrives on the 16th but spreads out across Britain before drifting slowly SE Thu 20th

GEFS - cool now, back to norm around Sun 16th (earlier in N , later in S), staying there with good ens agreement though a few members are warmer esp in N after Sun 23rd. Rain in most runs in modest amounts; no real pattern but indication of drier later. 

Yes the constant moaning on social media about how cold it is, people thinking single figures overnight are some kind of extreme etc etc - it all shows how much the UK climate has changed.

I do think though that all the talk about "nothing decent until August/September" is rather premature on June 10. 

If you want a bit of straw-clutching optimism look at the CFS 9-month run, plenty of heat there for early July. 😀

As I've said, since about the year 2000 there has been an assumption online than the UK has a much warmer climate than it really does - it was around then that the forecasts on the Beeb started getting all emotional, too, with presenters saying 8C in January would feel "bitterly cold", for example, rather than reporting it as a mild day but feeling cold in the wind, as would have been the case before.

Fast forward 24 years and I genuinely think people assume we have a Med climate! Even down here the mid-June mean min (91-20) is 10.8, but it's been damned hard to get into single figures at all in recent years - it's nice to have a reminder of what UK weather used to be like.

And you're spot on about writing off the summer on June 10th... writing off winter on December 10th would be just as silly, albeit in recent decades a winter writeoff is much more likely to happen than a cold summer. The gradual but relentless shifting right of the temperature bell-curve is a dreadful thing if you want to see snow.

It won't be long before the 850s get back to normal, but until then I'm going to enjoy the novelty of a spell that's average or even - perhaps - a bit below.

https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=&y=&run=0&ville=Londres&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&runpara=0&type=6&ext=1 

In my neck of the woods, May was the only month of the spring that produced any notable daytime warmth as far as I recall. March started not badly for weather with some reasonably springlike days but then went downhill from the second week onwards, with fairly typical temperatures for that time of year. The first fortnight of April was awful here and from what I recall reading on this forum at the time, it was little if any better elsewhere in the UK. Added to that, temperatures here on most days during that period seemed to be average at best or below, rather than above. April did warm up a bit after the weather improved during mid-month, but there was no notable warmth here unlike what we have had at times in numerous recent Aprils.

I agree with Helen Willetts that aside from the high temperatures of last month, it was must have been mainly the lack of cold nights and frost throughout the spring that was mostly behind the overall warmth of the season.

Models had been useless and very poor as I stand and a lot worst performance than before and never allow us any seasonal weather so I partly blame at them for this.   Very sad as we are nearing the longest day and all those potential useable long daylight had been vastly wasted.  Could had be a record highest June temps for UK at least 37-38C as other countries already getting their record broken.

Mark my word they will claim June 2024 the warmest on record 🙄 despite latest ensembles I saw now is well below average to just tad below to average no single day above. Rain spikes record daily no dry days on the graph.