The Weather Outlook

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Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
08 February 2024 06:57:43
Light rain has just started here but the Met Office phone app and radar show it’s due to turn to snow.  Any we do get isn’t likely to settle on wet ground unless it’s very heavy.  I’m still not convinced. 
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

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Lionel Hutz
08 February 2024 07:27:01
Judging from Meteireann, there does seem to be snow across Northern parts of RoI and presumably up into NI too. 

https://www.met.ie/latest-reports/observations 

So not a complete fail in terms of a forecast for snow on this side at least.


Lionel Hutz

Nr.Waterford , S E Ireland

68m ASL



speckledjim
08 February 2024 07:43:55

Light rain has just started here but the Met Office phone app and radar show it’s due to turn to snow.  Any we do get isn’t likely to settle on wet ground unless it’s very heavy.  I’m still not convinced. 

Originally Posted by: Caz 

According to the Met we have heavy snow forecast from 8am until 5pm, I am equally not convinced


Thorner, West Yorkshire



Journalism is organised gossip

Col
  • Col
  • Advanced Member
08 February 2024 16:31:33

By the same token then so is any given model run at any time, because that’s what they are created from

And we all know model runs aren’t forecasts 

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

I've heard that said, however I would consider anything that predicts the weather to be a forecast and the models most certainly do that. Or do you only count human interpretation of model output to be a 'forecast'?


Col

Bolton, Lancashire

160m asl

Snow videos:

http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

Tim A
08 February 2024 19:59:51
Had a few more bursts of snow and now 8cm. Drizzling now but not thawing at 0.1c. 

Wonder if the next big batch will be snow or icy rain . 


Tim

NW Leeds

187m asl

 My PWS 

dagspot
08 February 2024 20:08:12
most pathetic covering… had so much potential. Initial grey inbound clouds like the good old days, but rather than whispy light snow was more of a snizzle and damp covering. Guess that it for this ‘spell’
Neilston 600ft ASL
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
08 February 2024 20:08:23

According to the Met we have heavy snow forecast from 8am until 5pm, I am equally not convinced

Originally Posted by: speckledjim 

I was wrong not to be convinced.  The forecast was right and the rain turned to heavy snow that settled readily. We got a good depth in a short space of time.  Roads really bad and traffic at a standstill in places. It’s back to rain now, just as forecast but the snow’s clearing very slowly. 
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

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DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
09 February 2024 08:21:56
https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/snow-risk 

Some heavy snow for Scotland esp the NE through today and tomorrow. Some more hill snow for the west, as far south as the Lakes, on Mon 12th, then only in the Highlands and only occasionally until end of forecast Sat 24th.


War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

doctormog
09 February 2024 08:33:18
I suspect the snow up here will be confined to higher ground away from coastal areas.
Tim A
28 February 2024 10:56:36
Looks like the possibility of a bit of snow in places Friday /Saturday.

​​​​​​Messy picture with the low sat over us but definitely an opportunity Friday morning as a band of rain, sleet and snow pushes north east with higher ground North Wales and Northern England at risk. 

 


Tim

NW Leeds

187m asl

 My PWS 

Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
28 February 2024 15:10:02

Looks like the possibility of a bit of snow in places Friday /Saturday.

​​​​​​Messy picture with the low sat over us but definitely an opportunity Friday morning as a band of rain, sleet and snow pushes north east with higher ground North Wales and Northern England at risk. 

 

Originally Posted by: Tim A 

Airmass isn't that cold so this is an evap cooling event.

Key factors:

Wind strength: Stronger = less snow since evap cooling potential reduced

Wind direction: Advection from land is colder, coastal regions may get rain if wind is coming off the sea

Precip intensity: Higher intensity = more evap cooling = greater propensity for snow

Frontal coherence: More coherent front = stronger precip (see above)

Orographic blocking: Mountain chains tend to break fronts up so the directio of 'attack' is important

 


25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

johncs2016
28 February 2024 16:30:27

Looks like the possibility of a bit of snow in places Friday /Saturday.

​​​​​​Messy picture with the low sat over us but definitely an opportunity Friday morning as a band of rain, sleet and snow pushes north east with higher ground North Wales and Northern England at risk. 

 

Originally Posted by: Tim A 

Even if there was the chance of snow here in Edinburgh from that, this would be happening a bit too late in my books as we will then be into March which means that I would much rather just be getting on with spring by then.😡

Sadly though, that's not how our weather works.


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

buachaille
28 February 2024 17:05:18
Looks like it may sweep rapidly across Scotland from a south-easterly direction, giving everything from low hills upwards a freshening-up.

Will be welcome at Glencoe Ski, I'd imagine, where they've had a few cracking days recently. Worth checking some of the photos on their website.

Saint Snow
28 February 2024 17:24:37

Looks like it may sweep rapidly across Scotland from a south-easterly direction, giving everything from low hills upwards a freshening-up.

Will be welcome at Glencoe Ski, I'd imagine, where they've had a few cracking days recently. Worth checking some of the photos on their website.

Originally Posted by: buachaille 

As a total aside, I travelled through Glencoe in summer 2022 and was awestruck. It instantly got a place in my top 10 favourite places on earth I've visited.

 


Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

Tim A
29 February 2024 09:20:56
Looks like the band might be a bit delayed which means Peak District/Buxton might be best placed, in this completely marginal situation arriving further North later in the morning will mean less chance of snow as it will have warmed up a bit .
Tim

NW Leeds

187m asl

 My PWS 

Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
29 February 2024 09:43:44
Risk of thundersnow on the south coast Friday night as CAPE gets unusually high under cold air.

 


25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
29 February 2024 09:45:22

Looks like the band might be a bit delayed which means Peak District/Buxton might be best placed, in this completely marginal situation arriving further North later in the morning will mean less chance of snow as it will have warmed up a bit .

Originally Posted by: Tim A 

Equally though the air behind is not any warmer in this situ, in fact potentially the opposite so there could be heavy showers following; this could actually be the real story; not the dying occluded front.


25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

Saint Snow
29 February 2024 10:21:20
We need a Quantum map!

 


Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
29 February 2024 11:16:18

We need a Quantum map!

 

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

Will do one after the 12zs. Its a very unusual snow patteren I think. Parts of the far south and SW could get some surprises on Friday afternoon!


25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

Tim A
29 February 2024 11:35:29

Equally though the air behind is not any warmer in this situ, in fact potentially the opposite so there could be heavy showers following; this could actually be the real story; not the dying occluded front.

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

Slow moving bands Friday night into Saturday on some models like NMM.  GFS 6z looks fairly intense precipitation from initial front too. 


Tim

NW Leeds

187m asl

 My PWS 

Whiteout
29 February 2024 14:57:52

Will do one after the 12zs. It's esa very unusual snow patteren I think. Parts of the far south and SW could get some surprises on Friday afternoon!

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

Yes, am thinking 300m+ up on the Moor could do nicely out of this, maybe a snowy walk this weekend which would be nice.


Home/Work - Dartmoor

240m/785 ft asl

Chunky Pea
29 February 2024 15:10:16

Equally though the air behind is not any warmer in this situ, in fact potentially the opposite so there could be heavy showers following; this could actually be the real story; not the dying occluded front.

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

I think any snow that falls will be little more than white water at lower levels. 


Patrick,

East Galway, Ireland.

Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
29 February 2024 22:58:48
My rough estimate at the snow risk tommorow to lower levels. Most of the snow will be from the heavy showers behind the front, not the front itself. Devon and the South west are at high risk in particular which makes this an odd map to draw.

https://snipboard.io/4L3M8z.jpg 

UserPostedImage


25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

Chunky Pea
01 March 2024 09:03:16
No snow all winter, but starts falling on the first day of spring. 
Patrick,

East Galway, Ireland.

westv
01 March 2024 09:12:38

No snow all winter, but starts falling on the first day of spring. 

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 

But it is still winter if you don't think of the metrological timelines for the seasons.


Big heat in May

Summer will be spray.

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