I know there's an element of hyperbole, but I continue to think this is turning into one of the most disappointing winters of all time. Background signals and the disruption to the stratosphere led a number of people to think this was going to be the biggie. In reality we had a few crisp days in January (nothing of note to people of my age) and February is looking increasingly iffy. I know that in parts (definitely not all) of the north there has been some snow, but for the majority of the UK winter 2023-24 remains green. Is recent climatology now overriding the background signals so decisively?
To be honest, I never even had any hope for this winter in the first place, especially given the exceptionally hot September which we had last year (that was actually the hottest part of last year here as we didn't really get a very good summer), along with El Nino and the positive Indian Ocean Dipole. All of that is despite the fact that this has been an easterly QBO winter (normally, an easterly QBO would be a factor in favour of us getting a cold winter).
Once again though, that easterly QBO has been of very little help to us on this occasion as was the case in the winter of 2021/22 whereas last winter was actually the coldest of the last three winters despite us being in a westerly QBO then (which is something which would normally favour a milder winter and thus act against us getting a cold winter).
As you have said, it's been a very disappointing winter overall but because I wasn't even expecting a cold winter in the first place, we have actually had more cold weather during this winter than what I was expecting (I was expecting it to be a bit like 2013/14, 2015/16 or even 2019/20 although from the relatively large number of officially named storms which we have had during the course of this season, you could say it has actually been a bit like those winters to a certain extent).
EDITI almost forgot to add as well that since you are the only YouTuber to have actually forecast a milder than average winter overall, I'm sure that you will at least be pleased with that aspect of it.
Edited by user
05 February 2024 11:29:15
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Reason: Not specified
The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.