The last 3 months have reinforced my view that in the modern era winter is usually the most boring season in the UK. This has been one of the all time classics for all the wrong reasons. The interest has been to observe how recent climatology has overridden background signals and strat modulations which may be considered favourable for cold weather. 

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The background signals/indicators were definitely made by BMW this winter.
 

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And to back this up, I've been along the coast to the other end of Sussex today, and it's been heavy drizzle all the way there and back, totally gloomy, with the cloud base down to 500ft on the Downs (the Brighton bypass was in thick fog at its highest points)

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15c earlier in Exeter around 14:00 this afternoon. Exceptionally mild and 14c earlier this evening at 18:00.

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It's been a poor winter here in Oldham. One dusting of snow and another of around 2 inches. That's it. My enthusiasm next winter to chase cold will be very difficult to ignite, in fact it has been for a while hence my lack of posts and absence. Last proper fall of snow here (at least 6 inches) was in 2018 which seems a while ago now. A sign of the times. 

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The last 3 months have reinforced my view that in the modern era winter is usually the most boring season in the UK. This has been one of the all time classics for all the wrong reasons. The interest has been to observe how recent climatology has overridden background signals and strat modulations which may be considered favourable for cold weather. 

Exactly Brian - Although the consistent theme of warmer than average/above months which has been apparent for a while now and that exceptionally warm September like in Sept 2022 confirms my suspicions.

I do however feel a bit lost ATM as to why our weather has just become like this in the sense that we can't seem to get any cold weather in winter these days - despite all background signals beit QBO, MJO, El Nino or Stratosphere - whatever - the weather will never give us a prolonged cold spell. After a frost free December, a few frosts in January and no frosts so far in February, it appears like we will go through the whole month of February without a single ground frost despite many models including MET O which went for a cold and blocked month and it has been anything but cold and blocked. Is EVERY month going to be above average from now on?? Just ridiculous. This has turned out to be the most disappointing winter of all times and there was me thinking 2019/20 was disappointing...This winter 23/24 we have not even seen one episode of transient snow at the very least.

The thing is that there IS cold air around and it can get cold with many parts of Scandinavia seeing record lows for months on end.

Does anyone have idea why the troposphere isn't responding to the SSW's we have had and another one we are due in a few days?

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This winter has felt like it had a lot of promise at times, but every potential cold spell fizzled to nothingness very quickly.

 

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While we still have two weeks left of winter, as far as nature is concerned spring arrived last week.

It's also why I laugh whenever anyone says that it's winter until the equinox... in a month's time, most of these flowers and blossoms will have long gone! Spring arrives in the south in February these days, and it becomes almost impossible to get snow on the ground after late Feb - the only time it's happened here in the last 40 years is if there's snow already on the ground in late Feb (2005/2018 being the two most recent events). The meteorological definition of winter is far more accurate IMO...

Pictures of all the stuff that's out here:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/Posts/m1566911-The-Gardening-Thread 

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The mugginess of the last couple of days is just unnatural for the time of year. More moisture than oxygen in the air. 

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The mugginess of the last couple of days is just unnatural for the time of year. More moisture than oxygen in the air. 

It bodes well for another exceptionally humid summer. I remember the 18 to 20C dewpoints from last year with considerable dismay...

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It bodes well for another exceptionally humid summer. I remember the 18 to 20C dewpoints from last year with considerable dismay...

As far as I know (and I could be wrong on that front), there has been some recent model output though which has indicated that we might flip from El Nino back into La Nina as we progress further on through the year and if that was to happen fairly quickly as we got into the summer months, that might not bode very well for those of us who are looking for a decent summer this year.

Having said that though, it will probably still be humid and not all that cool anyway, even if we do end up getting a poor summer this year.
 

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It bodes well for another exceptionally humid summer. I remember the 18 to 20C dewpoints from last year with considerable dismay...

Those high night time temps are nice but shame at day time we should be looking at 18 to 20C maximum like other countries does if get down to 11-13C at nights but due to rain and dampness day time temps the same and not far off from last year poor summer temps.

A poor spell here. I reached 14°C here yesterday, which did indeed feel very mild, but it was ruined with frequent showers. It's been another poor week overall, to be honest.

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Yesterday was like early June, today's more like early May... still stupidly warm for the time of year.

An effortless 14, and as we're past the 14th the sun has a kick to it now (I was doing some weeding and pruning earlier, no need for a coat). Only another 2 weeks and sunburn is possible!

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All I can say is that I'm glad I escaped the depressing UK winters 😁
It isn't just the UK that has had an extremely mild winter - virtually the whole of Europe has (with the exception of Scandinavia) and in particular, the Alps have really suffered. I'm sure I read a few months ago that one of the highest resorts in Germany decided to close their downhill skiing and had their lifts dismantled after the 2023 season. The Alps have had bad years before of course but it seems to be more the rule rather than the exception nowadays. In fact, an article in the Norwegian Aftenposten today actually writes about how Norwegian ski resorts are benefitting and how they are now among the snowiest and most reliable in the world. Of course, Norway doesn't have the highest or most numerous runs (or nightlife) but I can vouch how the skiing in Norway is second to none if you are looking for powder snow and the whole 'winter ambience' in that the snow is also at village level with a true ski-in and ski-out experience.

As is the norm in Bjorli, we have had much snow and we still have at least 2 months of rising depths. If you need cheering up, I have hundreds of photos of this winter so far in Bjorli and they can be viewed in the portfolio pages: Bjorli Weather 

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At least it's only 14 days now to Spring - meteorologically speaking. 

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Yesterday was like early June, today's more like early May... still stupidly warm for the time of year.

An effortless 14, and as we're past the 14th the sun has a kick to it now (I was doing some weeding and pruning earlier, no need for a coat). Only another 2 weeks and sunburn is possible!

had my winter clothes on but I was drenched in sweat laying kerbs like a summers day yesterday 16 degrees with humidity crazy for February 

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The hell just goes on and on, intensifying with each disgusting month that passes.

Absolutely rotten February. Putrid, soul destroying and horrific beyond belief even when viewed on it's own, never mind in the context of what's been endured for the past 17 months.

So far 2024 just an intensification of the abject filth that wrote off 2023. Rainfall even worse, weekend curse even worse against any reasonable expectation.

How the hell can this garbage be happening month after month? Endless rock bottom worthless demoralising crap. Today is the fourth consecutive sunless weekend day. The only weekend sun we've seen all repulsive month was 2.2 hours on Saturday 3rd 🤢

After a completely frost-free horror February last year, this month has only brought three frosts. At the same time only one double digit max. As usual the extremes are squeezed at both ends as we end up with utterly rancid easterlies all the time delivering horrific mild nights, average day temperatures and pitiful diurnal ranges and needless to say endless grey skies and drizzly rain. VILE 😡

A wet winter used to also mean a snowy winter as rotten wet easterlies alternated with cold snowy northerlies. Now we just end up with the easterlies and as a result only a woeful 9 days of lying snow. The depths have been greater than would normally be the case with such a low total but it's nowhere near good enough to begin to make this remotely tolerable.

The 12-month rolling rainfall total just keeps on rising and rising and has now hit 1177mm - more than 400mm above average. February has been the 5th consecutive month to reach the full monthly average by the mid-point and it means there hasn't been a properly dry month (<90% of average) for a full year. Lowest monthly total in that time 43.6mm in May against an average of 46.9mm since 2006.

A year without a dry month. Nearly three years since the last time there were two consecutive dry months. When will this purgatory end?

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Looks like we're on track for a snowless winter here.  Pretty standard El Níño winter.  Some positives in low heating requirements, definitely no drought this year and this week has been really pleasant being out in, albeit the fields I walk over really get the heart pumping trying to wade through the mud and standing water.

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Looks like we're on track for a snowless winter here.  Pretty standard El Níño winter.  Some positives in low heating requirements, definitely no drought this year and this week has been really pleasant being out in, albeit the fields I walk over really get the heart pumping trying to wade through the mud and standing water.

I never believe on teleconnections, Nina or Nino had no effect on the UK as it give same results as usual.  I am expecting silly drought thread put up after no rain for a week for sure again in summer as they never learn UK is not Namibian arid country type or any other african dry places and will never will happened on our life times, if we get dry spell for few weeks it a big welcome to give some ground break from the all year round dampness.  Some parts had not dried up since Sept heatwave week.

The Nino only effect other places which gave Death Valley very wet winter with lot of rain lately.  Toronto had a very mild winter with temps nearly as here and only fleeting cold brief shots of subzero temps.  Not nice now to live there if this continue with brief cold shots and prolonged mild weather instead of other way around that you get brief mild shots.