Thanks - I meant at the top of the stratosphere* NOT atmosphere!

Happy New Year everyone - here's to a year of good health, prosperity and much wealth! 😊

Here's the ECM one https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-zonal-mean-zonal-wind?area=nh&base_time=202212290000 

Happy New Year. 

It goes out to 35 days. 

ok fair enough was being picky will apologise for that

After the extraordinary summer temperatures of 2022, I wonder what the weather has in store for this year? 

slightly off topic but with a predicted switch to El Niño conditions, expect near record breaking global temperatures and another warm year for the U.K. must be favoured.

GFS continues to show signs of warming at 10hPa but early days. Down in the troposphere there are also continuing signals for a transition to cold zonality a week or so on.

As for the GFS - I agree - that the colder signal has been consistently modelled in terms of the last few runs, but the jet pattern modelled (albeit in FI) is much more conducive to cold weather and possible Greenland block development. Certainly more interesting than the current see-saw zonal spell.

GFS Op - generally W-ly to start with but later on LPs from the Atlantic increasingly come further S and into the N Sea with bursts of N/NW-lies behind (Fri 6th 995mb S Norway weakly, Mon 9th 980mb E Scotland-Faeroes more generally, Mon 16th 975mb S Norway with long-fetch winds from the Arctic). 

ECM - similar with some differences in timing (Sun 8th not Mon 9th)

GEFS - cool to start with, then  a bit above norm temps to around the 8th in the S but only briefly in the N, a bit below the norm afterwards, rain from time to time, heaviest in NW.

A Happy New Year to all, even if the charts can't produce much in the way of excitement.

ECM op on top warm end again today, some habits don’t change!

Martin

Happy New Year to everyone on TWO. 🙂

For me, what is being shown in FI in some op runs at the moment for around mid-January looks rather reminisent of the same time back in 2018, when a cold westerly/north-westerly pattern airflow which lasted a few days delivered a fair bit of snow to my neck of the woods. Little did we realise at that time what was to come about six weeks later.

Whether or not what is being shown actually comes off, we will have to wait and see. However the trend at the moment is IMO reasonably encouraging for those of the cold persuasion.

Jet in fits and starts mostly near S of Britain in week 1, moving to the N in week 2, fading as it goes further E. A more coherent and stronger stream over N Africa.

GFS Op - W/SW-lies for this week and next, with LPs moving NE-wards, closer to Britain Mon 9th (975mb Scotland) and Sun 15th (980mb Wales) but making no progress against a continental block which is 1060mb near Urals for much of w/b Fri 11th. Later on (Wed 18th) this block moves to Finland 1055mb with gentle E-lies making some progress into W Europe

FAX agrees about W-lies in week 1 but has a greater pressure gradient so windy in the S and fronts crossing the country frequently

ECM similar to GFS; the LP Mon 9th makes more connection with the Arctic and brings down some N-lies.

GEFS cool for a day or two, briefly mild in N but for several days in S, then a long period from ca Fri 7th with mean temp a little below norm and increasing disagreement between ens members. Rain around in most places at some time or other, quite large amounts in W.

Another thing I hope will get downgraded in time, same goes for the rest of the run. I've noticed the GFS 06z runs always seem to show the most lows and tight pressure gradients.

lets hope so, it didnt happen last week but perhaps our luck may run out this time

The outlook generally is horrific. 

FI takes us to mid-month and in terms of potential it still looks like of the 'weak polar maritime' type meaning much of any wintriness tends to be restricted to the favoured 'northern hills', not withstanding any sharper feature that could bring something more transient to a wider area of course.

Still not seeing much in the way of Scandinavian high pressure though. What has been modelled seems too weak to provide any meaningful cold to the UK with heights sinking south and east into eastern Europe as the jet remains strong and based over or to the south of the UK.

Taking that into account, the outlook remains unsettled with the mildest (and I suppose driest) weather the further south and east you are and the colder and wetter (and occasionally wintry) weather further north and west. Standard UK winter weather fare?

A SSW could shake things up in the longer term but again I'm not seeing anything of significance there yet. In any case such impacts would take some time to affect us - beneficially or otherwise - and we'd likely be at the end of January or even into February by then.

After a mild peak in a few days time, it does look somewhat stormy for a while.  After this we seem to be looking at a period of temps fluctuating between mild and maybe a little below average, still unsettled  (typical January really).  Then we have a little more interest after about 11 days as the 0000hrs GFES 850mb showed.  There is a much more of a definite spread and by the end, around half of the suite is below -5.  Looking at the postage stamps around that period, maybe a tendency then for a little more amplification with one option for this demonstrated by the 0600hrs OP.  Have to stress the  ECM en's are not so keen on this.  I think cautious hopefulness is my best sentiment from a cold perspective.

https://max.nwstatic.co.uk/ensimages/ens.20230102/00/t850Somerset.png 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_336_1.png 

Interestingly today's 120hr Met Fax charts show HP developing to the NE, although may come to nothing!

That'll be the same one modelled on the ECM 12z for example. Our deep weekend low racing in on the strong jet helps quash it away from Scandinavia and further south and east into eastern Europe by day 7. It's a sinker, unfortunately.

Also to Brian I agree with the tweet you link to (I assume it was yourself who posted it) 😊 I mentioned earlier that I couldn't see anything significant with regards to SSWs, though I note their potential for wintry pattern changes. I guess that's where the interest comes from for people! I definitely intend to read up more on them though.