best thing is to keep an eye on a reversal in the zonal winds 

Thanks - I meant at the top of the stratosphere* NOT atmosphere!

Happy New Year everyone - here's to a year of good health, prosperity and much wealth! 😊

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I’ve lost my link to data displaying the projected NH zonal wind forecast. Could anyone kindly oblige? 

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looks like the Daily Mirror has beaten you to it with their snowmageddon stratospheric warming headline… 

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I’ve lost my link to data displaying the projected NH zonal wind forecast. Could anyone kindly oblige? 

Here's the ECM one https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-zonal-mean-zonal-wind?area=nh&base_time=202212290000 

Happy New Year. 

Thanks - I meant at the top of the stratosphere* NOT atmosphere!

Happy New Year everyone - here's to a year of good health, prosperity and much wealth! 😊

And to you, and all on Two

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not being pedantic but GEFS doesn’t show beyond mid January

It goes out to 35 days. 

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It goes out to 35 days. 

ok fair enough was being picky will apologise for that

Happy New Year to all on TWO.  

After the extraordinary summer temperatures of 2022, I wonder what the weather has in store for this year? 

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Good morning and Happy New Year.

slightly off topic but with a predicted switch to El Niño conditions, expect near record breaking global temperatures and another warm year for the U.K. must be favoured.

GFS continues to show signs of warming at 10hPa but early days. Down in the troposphere there are also continuing signals for a transition to cold zonality a week or so on.

 

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Good morning and Happy New Year.

slightly off topic but with a predicted switch to El Niño conditions, expect near record breaking global temperatures and another warm year for the U.K. must be favoured.

GFS continues to show signs of warming at 10hPa but early days. Down in the troposphere there are also continuing signals for a transition to cold zonality a week or so on.

 

I guess the degree of El Niño will be crucial: A light to moderate one might have a very different effect to the strong El Ninos of the late 90s / early naughties - as the latter might lead to quite dramatic and traumatic events. 
As for the GFS - I agree - that the colder signal has been consistently modelled in terms of the last few runs, but the jet pattern modelled (albeit in FI) is much more conducive to cold weather and possible Greenland block development. Certainly more interesting than the current see-saw zonal spell.

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WX temps remain cold across the north of Europe, though less so than shown late yesterday, moving slowly S & W to displace the current above-norm situation in W Europe, maybe taking longer to get across France and SE England. Britain in the centre of a lot of pptn from the Atlantic, extending in week 2 to France, Germany and Denmark (late yesterday it looked drier for Britain)

GFS Op - generally W-ly to start with but later on LPs from the Atlantic increasingly come further S and into the N Sea with bursts of N/NW-lies behind (Fri 6th 995mb S Norway weakly, Mon 9th 980mb E Scotland-Faeroes more generally, Mon 16th 975mb S Norway with long-fetch winds from the Arctic). 

ECM - similar with some differences in timing (Sun 8th not Mon 9th)

GEFS - cool to start with, then  a bit above norm temps to around the 8th in the S but only briefly in the N, a bit below the norm afterwards, rain from time to time, heaviest in NW.

A Happy New Year to all, even if the charts can't produce much in the way of excitement.

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Happy New Year. The GEFS are interesting this morning when studied individually, quite a lot have an easterly block out in FI. Trending in to the blocked direction, with plenty of easterlies in development. Time will tell.
ECM op on top warm end again today, some habits don’t change!
Martin

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Happy New Year to everyone on TWO. 🙂

For me, what is being shown in FI in some op runs at the moment for around mid-January looks rather reminisent of the same time back in 2018, when a cold westerly/north-westerly pattern airflow which lasted a few days delivered a fair bit of snow to my neck of the woods. Little did we realise at that time what was to come about six weeks later.

Whether or not what is being shown actually comes off, we will have to wait and see. However the trend at the moment is IMO reasonably encouraging for those of the cold persuasion.

 

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Still potential for a short lived easterly for more northern areas in 5 days with a close miss to a decent setup. More interest towards middle of January when we might see some decent synoptics cropping up 

short lived and close miss are not what we need to hear

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Despite the talk of SSWs and close misses I'm not seeing a lot in the ensembles if it's cold you are looking for. My guess at the moment is we're now looking towards the last third of January or February for another decent cold snap. On balance I suspect we will get another one this winter, although if the Troll from Trondheim turns out to be game, set and match it wouldn't surprise me either.

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WX temp charts showing a large patch of extremely cold Siberian air bulking up over Russia but not making significant progress W-wards with W & S Europe still above norm for week 1, and only a little cooler in week 2. Rain/pptn on the Atlantic across to the Baltic in week 1, retreating to far western coasts in week 2.

Jet in fits and starts mostly near S of Britain in week 1, moving to the N in week 2, fading as it goes further E. A more coherent and stronger stream over N Africa.

GFS Op - W/SW-lies for this week and next, with LPs moving NE-wards, closer to Britain Mon 9th (975mb Scotland) and Sun 15th (980mb Wales) but making no progress against a continental block which is 1060mb near Urals for much of w/b Fri 11th. Later on (Wed 18th) this block moves to Finland 1055mb with gentle E-lies making some progress into W Europe
 
FAX agrees about W-lies in week 1 but has a greater pressure gradient so windy in the S and fronts crossing the country frequently

ECM similar to GFS; the LP Mon 9th makes more connection with the Arctic and brings down some N-lies.

GEFS cool for a day or two, briefly mild in N but for several days in S, then a long period from ca Fri 7th with mean temp a little below norm and increasing disagreement between ens members. Rain around in most places at some time or other, quite large amounts in W.

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Nasty low pressure next weekend for the SE on GFS op run

Nasty low pressure next weekend for the SE on GFS op run

Another thing I hope will get downgraded in time, same goes for the rest of the run. I've noticed the GFS 06z runs always seem to show the most lows and tight pressure gradients.

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Another thing I hope will get downgraded in time, same goes for the rest of the run. I've noticed the GFS 06z runs always seem to show the most lows and tight pressure gradients.

lets hope so, it didnt happen last week but perhaps our luck may run out this time
The outlook generally is horrific. 
 

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