WX temp charts continue to favour a very cold north - week 1, a large area N of the Urals, week 2 spreading acrosss to N Scandinavia - but is uncertain as to how far south the cold will reach. In week 1 there is a steep temp gradient to a mild W Europe, but colder air in week 2 does not reach so far S as shown yesterday. The 0C isotherm does reach Poland and mountain areas further W, and W Europe is cool, but Ukraine and around the Black Sea not so much in the chiller as previously shown.
GFS Op has a W-ly theme to start, with the LP slowly shifting N-wards from generating the current heavy rain to a drier spell towards Thu 5th. Then the W-lies get broken up by LPs dipping from N of Scotland into the N Sea dragging N-lies behind them (990mb Denmark Fri 6th, and more extensively 985mb Thu 12th). The final frame Sun 15th has the very deep depression 950mb S of Iceland which was in that position yesterday but only affecting the Atlantic as higher pressure begins to link the Azores to Norway, each 1030mb with Britain under a col.
ECM resembles GFS to Fri 6th, but then the following LP instead of waiting to the N for a few days takes the direct route SE-wards 980mb Scotland Sun 8th with NW-lies for the rest of Britain
GEFS has no really strong signal; temps rise and fall for a while, especially in the S, and likely to become cooler later on away from the SW. Some rain in most ens members from time to time, heaviest in the W
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Chichester 12m asl