Recent GFS runs have given me a final CET estimate somewhere within the high 2s to mid-3s.
That means we have a nail-biting run to the line for Ally Pally Snowman and JMM2005.
By my calculations, a final CET of 3.4°C or higher gives APS the win, otherwise JMM2005 has it.
In fact, there's even a chance that JMM2005 ends up in 3rd place, as Spring Sun Winter Dread sneaks into 2nd, should the final CET come in at 3.5°C or higher.
In fact, the competition is really close all the way down to 6th place. That's the position I'll finish in if the final CET is 3.3°C or higher, while 3.2°C would but me in 5th, 3.1°C in 4th, and 3.0°C or lower in 3rd!
The other two involved in this seriously cramped jostling for position are Frank H (3.3°C to 3.5°C for 5th, 3.2°C for 4th, 3.1°C for 3rd, 3.0°C or lower for 2nd) and Col (3.2°C or lower for 6th, 3.3°C to 3.5°C for 4th, 3.6°C to 4.3°C for 3rd).
Most exciting finalé to the competition that I can recall!
Edited by user
22 December 2022 09:55:42
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Reason: Not specified
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