A couple of late-season Atlantic hurricanes have popped up. Lise menacing Belize and Yucatan; Martin just drifting N /NE from mid-Atlantic.
I dont want to sound critical in the wrong sense but I have been distinctly unimpressed by th NHC's forecast skill this season. Not because of their call for a much more active (North Atlantic) season this year... after a slow start there has been a good deal of activity recently.
It is more to do with their seeming lack of skill in predicting developments. There are examples throughout this season, but I'll concentrate on the last two, Lisa and Martin. Lisa was forecast to not develop at all, and then when it did the forecasters were adamant that the storm after landfall would not cross over in to the bay of Campech, dimissing the outliers in modelling that said it would. It IS now forecast to do just that, although they are now confident that even so it will not develop further. We will see. Martin was detected as an area of disturbance that was unlikely to develop. A day or so later it disappeared off the output, with no further potential. Only to reappear a day later with perhaps a gradual dvelopment that would be squashe in a few hours. Of course Martin is now a Hurricane.
As I say there have been other such dismissals during the season.
Now I know that forecasting is an art as well as a science, and development or not is an excercise in probalitys based on fluid dynamics and plume dispersal as well as phsings with jetstreams, and juggling barotropic with baroclinic forcings.
But they do seem to have been singularly lacking in skill this season, considering all the observations and the equipemnt to make those observations at their disposal.
I dont know what other peoples views are, and if I'm wrong I'm happy to be shown why.
Anyone else with comments?
Regards
Steve
Steve D. FRMetS
Burton Latimer, Kettering, Northants