I posted this a week ago today.

I'm really not convinced about this rainfall chart Jiries. Hence the reason why I posted it. I'll drink the water in my water butt. If we do receive 25mm this week !

 

End result = 49.2mm. The butt water tastes...errr lovely. 

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I posted this a week ago today.

I'm really not convinced about this rainfall chart Jiries. Hence the reason why I posted it. I'll drink the water in my water butt. If we do receive 25mm this week !

 

End result = 49.2mm. The butt water tastes...errr lovely. 

The models dealt with this quite well, although the 49mm for you would have been at the upper end of the wetter GFS runs. The 84mm we have had so far here was also well modelled. I‘m thankful for a bit if sunshine today and the coming week doesn’t look quite as wet here.

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WX temp charts continue yesterday's trend with modest warmth continuing in the far W including Britain (and still hot in the Med) but with cool weather moving steadily from the NE, reaching E France and the inland parts of the Balkans in week 2. The rainfall pattern keeps shifting about - widely distributed rain over Europe in week 1 as before, but in week 2 the very dry area has moved from France (as yesterday) to S Sweden, with areas of rain circling this, including some over Britain though the heaviest is further S over the Alps.

GFS Op - by Wed 14th Danielle is decaying near NW Spain though GFS is now copying ECM from yesterday and showing a trough briefly extending in the direction of Britain; and Earl is dying in mid-Atlantic. Then follows a N-S ridge of HP over Britain, affected at the edges by Scandinavian LP until Mon 19th so cool N-lies for E coast, and later, Wed 21st, by LP on the Atlantic, so S-lies in the W. The latter general area of LP winds up into a focused depression, first off NW Scotland, but moving to Clyde 990 mb Sun 25th and continuing SE-wards

ECM - similar to GFS but keeps the ridge of HP further W for a while so N-lies are more general, but finishes on Tue 20th with Hp also placed over Britain, covering the whole of the country

GEFS - warm for England esp the S at first, with spike of rain Wed 14th (Danielle. as above?) then cool  and dry for a while but back to norm with some rain possible from Sat 24th. Scotland similar but less accentuated and perhaps rather above norm temps later

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As yesterday WX temp charts continue  with modest warmth continuing in the far W including Britain (and still hot in the Med) but with cool weather moving steadily from the NE, reaching E France and the inland parts of the Balkans but the timing moves on - that now applies more to week 1, with warmth pushing back from the SW and cooler weather in the Balkans moving to affect Ukraine in week 2. Rainfall continues to shift around; significant rain in week 1 for most of continental Europe with Britain on the fringe, in week 2 on the Atlantic catching W Britain, the Adriatic being the really dry area, and small amounts of rain everywhere else.

GFS Op - Danielle and Earl dying off Spain and in mid-Atlantic respectively by Wed 14th while HP establishes off the W of Britain (further W than yesterday, more like ECM of that date) with steady N-lies for the end of the week. Pressure then rises over Britain, neatly enclosed in the 1025mb isobar Mon 19th - good weather for the funeral and BH - before being shunted out of the way by troughs from the Atlantic from Thu 22nd. The last chart i.e. Tue 27th shows a traditional equinoctial dartboard low 955mb mid Atlantic, with consequent threat to the NW but warmth being drawn up to the SE.

ECM is a close match for GFS - perhaps a little more N-ward extent of Danielle before final decay, just about affecting S England to Tue 13th

GEFS - in the S, warm on Tue 13th with a little rain following, then quite cool for a week before temps go back to norm. Very little rain in this period, just a hint of some at the end Sun 25th onwards. Scotland similar, but cool period shorter and rain starts earlier, around Fri 23rd.

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Surprised no mention of tomorrows potential record temperature in the south

 

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Looking like the first autumn chill of the season is coming later in the week. We have an overnight low of 9C being shown Friday, and day temperatures in the high teens.

I posted this a week ago today.

I'm really not convinced about this rainfall chart Jiries. Hence the reason why I posted it. I'll drink the water in my water butt. If we do receive 25mm this week !

 

End result = 49.2mm. The butt water tastes...errr lovely. 

Still nothing much here - just 15mm so far for September. Downpours all around in the last week but mostly missing us. 

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Surprised no mention of tomorrows potential record temperature in the south

 

25C in the south or 23C in Birmingham is not a record just standard Sept warm spell.  The record still at 35C so no chance to break it.

Summer continues towards the equinox, as is normal. Can we finally ditch the ‘meteorological’ summer nonsense - a convention even the Met Office accepts is merely a statistical convenience.

Autumn begins on 22 September.

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Now the recent showers/storms have cleared its back to the same old. Temperature above average and not much happing 

Hope this chart isn't a sign of the coming winter 

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=240&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0

No doubt once October rolls round and set ups like 

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=96&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0

this would be welcome, the Atlantic will awaken from its slumber. 

Summer continues towards the equinox, as is normal. Can we finally ditch the ‘meteorological’ summer nonsense - a convention even the Met Office accepts is merely a statistical convenience.

Autumn begins on 22 September.

As the Met Office say its statistical convenience. 

So your welcome to use the equinox statistics if you wish. 

 As the Met Office say its statistical convenience. 

So your welcome to use the equinox statistics if you wish. 

Exactly. Neither are wrong and both can be used in different contexts. According to the Met Office, autumn starts on September 23rd this year ....

When does autumn start? - Met Office 

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In terms of weather and temps, this breakdown is just a valid in my opinion. 

Jan/Feb/Mar = Winter

Apr/May/Jun = Spring

Jul/Aug/Sept = Summer

Oct/Nov/Dec = Autumn 

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In terms of weather and temps, this breakdown is just a valid in my opinion. 

Jan/Feb/Mar = Winter

Apr/May/Jun = Spring

Jul/Aug/Sept = Summer

Oct/Nov/Dec = Autumn 

March is spring here nowadays. Mostly the first proper warmth. There are odd exceptions (BFTE)

Even late Feb can feel spring-like now and often does 

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March is spring here nowadays. Mostly the first proper warmth. There are odd exceptions (BFTE)

Even late Feb can feel spring-like now and often does 

That's another thing it verrys alot from North to South in the UK.  That's why a 3 month segment starting the 1st of each month makes it much more simple for the UK overall. 

Why some care what start date is used for each season baffles me. 

In terms of weather and temps, this breakdown is just a valid in my opinion. 

Jan/Feb/Mar = Winter

Apr/May/Jun = Spring

Jul/Aug/Sept = Summer

Oct/Nov/Dec = Autumn 

Dec/Jan/ early Feb = winter 

Mid Feb/ March/ Apr/ early May = spring

Mid May/June/Jul/Aug/ First half SEP = summer

Late sep/Oct/Nov = autumn 

 

 

 

Temp summary: the battle between cooler air from the NE and warmer air on Atlantic coasts continues, though neither much below or above norm respectively. By comparison with yesterday, the cooler air succeeds in advancing to E France & the shores of the Med in week 2, S Britain and W France hanging on to the last of the warmth. Rain in a ring around Poland which is itself dry in week 1; the ring expands as does the drier area at its centre in week 2, the latter then centred on Channel coasts up to Denmark.

GFS Op: as before Danielle dying off NW Spain with trough to S Britain Tue 13th, and Earl dying mid-Atlantic. Then a period with HP to W of Ireland and LP centred in Baltic and N-lies for Britain, until Mom 19th when the HP moves E-wards but hangs on, situated in the northern  N Sea while a broad trough develops from Spain to Greenland by Sun 25th. LP then controls the N Atlantic but not a dartboard low as shown yesterday, just a trough extending S over UK Wed 28th.

GEFS : in the S, warm with a little rain at first, dropping to cool Fri 16th and steadily back to norm Wed 21st, very dry during this period, perhaps a little rain from Mon 26th. ENs members good agreement. The N misses out on the early warmth and rain, and with more disagreement in ens members from 26th but probably cooler and wetter at this time.

ECM: similar to GFS but HP situated more to south in N Sea Wed 21st so W-lies rather than S-lies at this time

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Dec/Jan/ early Feb = winter 

Mid Feb/ March/ Apr/ early May = spring

Mid May/June/Jul/Aug/ First half SEP = summer

Late sep/Oct/Nov = autumn 

 

 

 

Yes, I think that fits well for the southernmost part of Great Britain, including here in Kent.

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Yes, I think that fits well for the southernmost part of Great Britain, including here in Kent.

Agreed. The need to segment into 3 month blocks seems to occupy people too much 

Surprised no mention of tomorrows potential record temperature in the south

 

What record potential is there? The date record is over 30C and there's surely no danger of that being broken?

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