Donate to browse the TWO website without adverts until 31st December 2024. You'll also get access to extra features and supporting our ongoing development.
For full details please see Advert free access on our website.
Wed next week should see some proper showers in the south, and then cooler, will feel autumnal compared to what we have now.
Raw output looking at something like 22c at six day range. Hardly autumnal and in any case a million miles away in terms of forecasting. I actually want the rain. But I’ll believe it when I see it.
Significant high pressure at the end of the ECM tonight. And hot again
Need to see if its an outlier but second op in a row that doesnt have much rain
It is, however, not looking quite as wet as it was this time yesterday.
Yes, looks ok, but expect it'll be an outlier this time.It is, however, not looking quite as wet as it was this time yesterday.
Yes, looks ok, but expect it'll be an outlier this time.
The long ranger has high pressure final week of August so it could be on to something.
That is what the Met Office says but it won't last long before turning unsettled again.
Here in Fulham it is currently breezy with a strong Easterly breeze and currently 25 degrees…it certainly does not feel hot or humid as at 8.30pm on 11th August
I think the 4 day heatwave modelled by The Met Office in our part of the country may not measure up to the projected highs they are currently forecasting until Sunday of course time will tell ….
Here in Fulham it is currently breezy with a strong Easterly breeze and currently 25 degrees…it certainly does not feel hot or humid as at 8.30pm on 11th August I think the 4 day heatwave modelled by The Met Office in our part of the country may not measure up to the projected highs they are currently forecasting until Sunday of course time will tell ….
Looks like we got to ~33C today. Not sure what the Met were saying, but that looks to be slap bang inline with what the models suggested? 35C to 37C tops this weekend looks reasonable still I think.
MOGREPS looks quite dry too.
I can't embed the rain data table directly, but the London link is
https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/premium/mogreps-tables.aspx?run=12&fv=lsrratesfc&loc=london&lat=51&lon=0&p=&cty=
MOGREPS-G rain forecasts for the London area. Doesn't look like a lot of rain, but there is a lot of uncertainty https://t.co/HVrErP2k08 pic.twitter.com/DyE9AoqWcM— TheWeatherOutlook (@TWOweather) August 11, 2022
MOGREPS-G rain forecasts for the London area. Doesn't look like a lot of rain, but there is a lot of uncertainty https://t.co/HVrErP2k08 pic.twitter.com/DyE9AoqWcM
As expected, it is a fairly big outlier at the end.
As SJV says ECM definitely has pressure on the way up later on. Reasons to be optimistic tonight.
https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/ecmwfens_display.php?x=315&y=144&run=12&type=11&runpara=0
The max was 34.2 AFAIK and several stations broke 33. I think GFS had a 34 grid point today so more or lees bang on. The maxima have been dialled back a degree or two for Sunday, with Saturday now looking like the hottest day with 36 or possibly 37.
I noticed that after I'd posted.
The blueness of the sky the last few days has been amazing, which does indicate very low humidity in the middle and upper atmosphere.
This feels a much different heat to earlier in the summer. Much dryer and less humid.
The July heatwave actually had extremely low humidity. Just shows what deep blue sky does for the feel of the weather.
Looks like a few blowtorch runs appearing in the last third of August.