WX summary charts show the weather for Europe being dragged kicking and screaming towards a breakdown. For week 1 the high temperatures continue south of a line from N England to the Baltic but in week 2 the heat has retreated 300/400 miles S, with the new line from S France to S Poland, and an ominous advance of something quite cold from the E across Finland. There's patchy rain in various places incl C England and Wales week 1, but in week 2 there's an enormous wodge (new technical term) of heavy rain centred over the British Isles, with some minor extensions to E & W.
FAX shows a shallow LP moving from Brittany early Sunday to Wales mid-Monday with (thundery?) troughs circulating around it
GFS Op has the same evolution; and then as this LP moves off E-wards, it's replaced by a larger and deepening Atlantic LP, to the NW on Fri 19th but by Mon 22nd 985mb Irish Sea. Then a day or two of W-lies before another LP, this time from the SW running up the W coast of Britain 995mb NI Fri 26th, then moving further N but stlll extending a broad trough S to the Channel.
GEFS - in the S, mean temps decrease from a peak ca 7C above norm Sun 14th to norm Wed 17th and then stay there with good ens agreement. Much more rain than previously forecast, esp around Wed 17th (more but not exclusively SE) and Mon 22nd (more SW). In N England and in Scotland, mean temp even a little below norm, and the further N you go, the more spread out is the rain over time.
ECM differs from GFS about the Atlantic LP which is shown running well N of Scotland from Fri 19th and by Mon 22nd is 995mb S Norway, so light W-lies at that period and less disturbed weather
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