So near and yet so far - the summary charts ths morning show proper warmth hanging fire just the other side of the Channel, a step back from yesterday, and continuing into week 2. Pleasant enough temps for S Britain and better than the rather cool pool persisting over C & E Europe. Rain mostly in the N (Atlantic - Scotland -Baltic) in week 1, moving S in week 2 (England - Alps -Ukraine).
Jet - developing strongly across N Ireland - S Scotland for next few days, breaking up into loops then fragments of loops around N of Scotland by Sun 15th and persisting to Thu 19th after which it goes quiet.
GFS Op - Current HP moving SE and allowing LP to take over (990mb Hebrides Fri 13th) with winds going round from SW to NW before HP re-establishes Sun 15th intensifying 1030mb Tue 17th and moving N-wards. LP develops in Biscay as a response, running N-wards and at its deepest 990mb Mon 23rd off SW Ireland. Only intermittently is there warm air from the S, certainly not the plume suggested yesterday.
FAX shows quite a complex of fronts across the Highlands this week, and brings the LP further S and sooner; 991mb N Wales Wed 11th (BBC was saying this morning to watch this as a possibility)
GEFS - in the S a degree or two above norm at first, cooler around Sat 14th, warmer then until end of forecast but not record-breaking as models suggested a couple of days back. Very little rain, and that mostly later on. In the N, a similar temp profile, to a greater degree above norm later but from a lower base. Rain in quantity this week on the W coast, and not absent elsewhere; drier for a time but more rain towards end of forecast
ECM - similar to GEFS but positions the HP around Tue 17th just that bit further E and S thus encouraging a more coherent airflow from Spain
"Ground covered with snow this morning, having a great deal of snow in the night. This morning was fair but the air very cold" and "Very cold and very damp. Water overflows the ditches all round us ... Land springs about us were scarcely ever known to be so full as at present." Parson Woodforde's Diary, 13th and 17th March 1795, Norfolk
Chichester 12m asl