So near and yet so far - the summary charts ths morning show proper warmth hanging fire just the other side of the Channel, a step back from yesterday, and continuing into week 2. Pleasant enough temps for S Britain and better than the rather cool pool persisting over C & E Europe. Rain mostly in the N (Atlantic - Scotland -Baltic) in week 1, moving S in week 2 (England - Alps -Ukraine).
Jet - developing strongly across N Ireland - S Scotland for next few days, breaking up into loops then fragments of loops around N of Scotland by Sun 15th and persisting to Thu 19th after which it goes quiet.
GFS Op - Current HP moving SE and allowing LP to take over (990mb Hebrides Fri 13th) with winds going round from SW to NW before HP re-establishes Sun 15th intensifying 1030mb Tue 17th and moving N-wards. LP develops in Biscay as a response, running N-wards and at its deepest 990mb Mon 23rd off SW Ireland. Only intermittently is there warm air from the S, certainly not the plume suggested yesterday.
FAX shows quite a complex of fronts across the Highlands this week, and brings the LP further S and sooner; 991mb N Wales Wed 11th (BBC was saying this morning to watch this as a possibility)
GEFS - in the S a degree or two above norm at first, cooler around Sat 14th, warmer then until end of forecast but not record-breaking as models suggested a couple of days back. Very little rain, and that mostly later on. In the N, a similar temp profile, to a greater degree above norm later but from a lower base. Rain in quantity this week on the W coast, and not absent elsewhere; drier for a time but more rain towards end of forecast
ECM - similar to GEFS but positions the HP around Tue 17th just that bit further E and S thus encouraging a more coherent airflow from Spain