WX summary temps: still rather cold across N Europe incl Scotland for week 1 and W Europe in general below norm for time of year though not quite as marked as previously. In week 2 some proper warmth moving into Spain from SW and Ukraine from SE but although the really cold area shrinks a lot, only modest improvements for the rest of Europe. Pptn from UK and France across to W Russia week 1, fragmenting into smaller patches (notably Greece) in week 2 and dry areas in SW and SE as above.
Jet in the Med at first, then irregularly with loops breaking up the general flow near S England from Fri 8th and then more definitely near N Scotland from Tue 19th
GFS op has HP near Sw Britain fading rapidly with LP from N over Scotland 985 mb tomorrow, deepening as it moves E-wards but leaving N-lies in place for Sat 9th. Atlantic LP then stats to move in but degrades into a N-S trough; this near W Britain Mon 11th S/SE-lies then moves E-wards to Germany by Thu 14th with N/NE-lies. Britain as a whole under HP from Sun 17th but troughs quite close to NW Scotland at first and to SW England later.
GEFS for the S shows cold either side of Sat 9th, mild either side of Wed 13th, mean then back to norm with considerable difference between ens members, rain in small amounts at almost any time with ens members differing as to when. Further N the mild spell is suppressed and is absent in Scotland with temps achieving no better than norm. Also in the N and especially the NW pptn more concentrated in near future and to a lesser extent around Wed 13th, and heavier generally in NW with snow row figures for the Highlands in the 30s for next 5 days.
ECM (mostly 12z on account of needing to post earlier today) differs from GFS later this week with that LP not clearing E-wards quickly, leaving trough over the SW Fri 8th The Atlantic LP then comes in as above but moves to NW of Britain with SW/W-lies in a zonal pattern from Tue 12th, HP centred over Biscay.
FAX clearly shows the development of the LP over Scotland tomorrow from a disturbance in the fronts lying E_W across Scotland today; and interestingly, a Channel Low popping up on Friday embedded in the general N-ly flow
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell
Chichester 12m asl