Remove ads from site

Global Warming
Saturday, January 1, 2022 11:40:48 AM
western100
Saturday, January 1, 2022 1:56:26 PM
What was the 2021 Cet?
Worcestershire / Warwickshire Border
100m ASL
Twitter…..@Weather4u2
Global Warming
Saturday, January 1, 2022 2:01:52 PM

What was the 2021 Cet?

Originally Posted by: western100 


Hadley has 10.26C  https://hadleyserver.metoffice.gov.uk/hadcet/cetml1659on.dat


I think that means I win the annual CET competition as I predicted 10.32C!


You were second with 10.10C.


Here is a reminder of the predictions


UserPostedImage


Chart 1


 

western100
Saturday, January 1, 2022 2:13:59 PM


 


Hadley has 10.26C  https://hadleyserver.metoffice.gov.uk/hadcet/cetml1659on.dat


I think that means I win the annual CET competition as I predicted 10.32C!


You were second with 10.10C.


Here is a reminder of the predictions


UserPostedImage


Chart 1


 


Originally Posted by: Global Warming 


Congratulations on your annual prediction 👍🏼
I was looking good after Day 10 in December then it all went a bit mild 😂


Coldest year since 2013 thanks to a cold spring. 


Worcestershire / Warwickshire Border
100m ASL
Twitter…..@Weather4u2
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
Saturday, January 1, 2022 2:46:29 PM


Final December CET was 6.36C


https://hadleyserver.metoffice.gov.uk/hadcet/cet_mean_2021


Originally Posted by: Global Warming 

 Wow!


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
Saturday, January 1, 2022 2:47:29 PM


 


Hadley has 10.26C  https://hadleyserver.metoffice.gov.uk/hadcet/cetml1659on.dat


I think that means I win the annual CET competition as I predicted 10.32C!


You were second with 10.10C.


Here is a reminder of the predictions


UserPostedImage


Chart 1


 


Originally Posted by: Global Warming 

Congratulations GW!  


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Global Warming
Saturday, January 1, 2022 2:52:30 PM

Here are the charts for December


The minimum CET was over 2C above average although only the 16th warmest on record.


UserPostedImage


Chart 1


UserPostedImage


Chart 2


UserPostedImage


Chart 3

Global Warming
Saturday, January 1, 2022 2:57:50 PM

Here are the annual charts


UserPostedImage


Chart 1


UserPostedImage


Chart 2

Global Warming
Saturday, January 1, 2022 3:21:54 PM

Annual CET competition - year-end update


Firstly congratulations to marting for winning the December competition with an error of just 0.04C.


In the annual table there is no change at the top this month. In the end Spring Sun Winter Dread is a comfortable winner by just over 1C. Saint Snow finishes second and Bolty third.


Grandad props up the table this year with an error of 20.02C.


UserPostedImage


Link to full size table


This table shows all the monthly prediction errors and positions of everyone in the final table. Yellow highlight indicates a prediction error of <0.5C and orange highlight indicates a missed prediction.


UserPostedImage


Table 2

lanky
Saturday, January 1, 2022 3:22:43 PM


Here are the charts for December


As expected 31 Dec saw the highest Hadley CET mean on record for any December date since 1659. Mean CET was 13.2C. Previous highest was 13.1C on 19 Dec 2015.


The minimum CET was over 2C above average although only the 16th warmest on record.


UserPostedImage


Chart 1


UserPostedImage


Chart 2


UserPostedImage


Chart 3


Originally Posted by: Global Warming 


Is that right ?


I thought I saw 12.9 when I went into the MetO database


Martin
Richmond, Surrey
Global Warming
Saturday, January 1, 2022 3:25:37 PM


Is that right ?


I thought I saw 12.9 when I went into the MetO database


Originally Posted by: lanky 


Sorry yes I was looking at the wrong figure - it is indeed 12.9C so just short of the record. Still the equal second highest on record I think.

Frank H
Saturday, January 1, 2022 3:42:01 PM

 


Congratulations to SSWD


A well deserved winner.


Wrightington, Wigan
Spring Sun Winter Dread
Saturday, January 1, 2022 4:32:37 PM
Many thanks .
I was trying to explain this to a friend while sozzled last night when we were discussing 2021 achievements and the best way I could think of to put it was
"I've won fantasy weather on the internet" (riffing on fantasy football which is essentially the same as this but for the Premier League...)
Many thanks to GW for the always on point analysis and charts and here's to another year of weather watching in the competition that makes weather exciting even when it's "boring"! (Much like Fantasy Football in many ways come to think of it...)
Whether Idle
Saturday, January 1, 2022 4:35:56 PM

Well done SSWD and GW, its a tough competition and to win is a worthy accomplishment. 


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
Saturday, January 1, 2022 4:57:55 PM

Many thanks .
I was trying to explain this to a friend while sozzled last night when we were discussing 2021 achievements and the best way I could think of to put it was
"I've won fantasy weather on the internet" (riffing on fantasy football which is essentially the same as this but for the Premier League...)
Many thanks to GW for the always on point analysis and charts and here's to another year of weather watching in the competition that makes weather exciting even when it's "boring"! (Much like Fantasy Football in many ways come to think of it...)

Originally Posted by: Spring Sun Winter Dread 

  Well said and congratulations!  


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Ally Pally Snowman
Saturday, January 1, 2022 4:58:37 PM

Congratulations SSWD.  


I probably had the best year I've ever had at this game apart from November and December. 


Great effort as always GW.


 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
Saturday, January 1, 2022 6:12:44 PM


Congratulations SSWD.  


I probably had the best year I've ever had at this game apart from November and December. 


Great effort as always GW.


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Congratulations to SSWD for his win and Global for the annual prediction win!


By far my worst year ever, at least in terms of position. Onwards and upwards for 2022. 


Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
Sussex snow magnet
Saturday, January 1, 2022 6:13:17 PM
Well done sswd and thanks for the excellently run comp GW, have you got the cummulative table over all the previous years that you have posted before.
Snowshoe
Saturday, January 1, 2022 8:01:01 PM

Congratulations to SSWD, and many thanks to GW for running this competition.


 


Surprised I moved up a few places in the end despite being more than a degree out for December. 

Darren S
Saturday, January 1, 2022 9:49:49 PM

I was the only person in the competition to fail to come within 0.5C of the actual CET every single month! Some achievement. 


Darren
Crowthorne, Berks (87m asl)
South Berks Winter Snow Depth Totals:
2023/24 0 cm; 2022/23 7 cm; 2021/22 1 cm; 2020/21 13 cm; 2019/20 0 cm; 2018/19 14 cm; 2017/18 23 cm; 2016/17 0 cm; 2015/16 0.5 cm; 2014/15 3.5 cm; 2013/14 0 cm; 2012/13 22 cm; 2011/12 7 cm; 2010/11 6 cm; 2009/10 51 cm
redmoons
Sunday, January 2, 2022 3:48:04 PM
Well done SSWD 🙂
Andrew,
Watford
ASL 35m
http://weather.andrewlalchan.co.uk 





Saint Snow
Sunday, January 2, 2022 7:36:24 PM

Cheers, GW


And formal congrats to SSWD


At one point around mid-December it looked like the stars were going to align and the weather gods play ball to bring us that most fabled weather event of Yuletide cold and snow, but twasn't to be and a distinctly unfestive dollop of mild gruel was delivered instead. 



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
Monday, January 3, 2022 6:53:43 AM


Cheers, GW


And formal congrats to SSWD


At one point around mid-December it looked like the stars were going to align and the weather gods play ball to bring us that most fabled weather event of Yuletide cold and snow, but twasn't to be and a distinctly unfestive dollop of mild gruel was delivered instead. 


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

  Commiserations Saint!  You had it snatched away right at the end but you gave us a good competition!  Keep it up!  


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Col
  • Col
  • Advanced Member
Monday, January 3, 2022 9:05:22 AM


  Commiserations Saint!  You had it snatched away right at the end but you gave us a good competition!  Keep it up!  


Originally Posted by: Caz 


The CET comp can be cruel.


2 years ago I had been leading for much of the year but when it came to December I was suckered in by models predicting a cold spell. It never happened, my rivals for the title predicted much milder and somehow I managed to only finish 4th.


It was a real 'Devon Loch' moment!


Col
Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg
Frank H
Monday, January 3, 2022 10:47:49 AM


 


The CET comp can be cruel.


2 years ago I had been leading for much of the year but when it came to December I was suckered in by models predicting a cold spell. It never happened, my rivals for the title predicted much milder and somehow I managed to only finish 4th.


It was a real 'Devon Loch' moment!


Originally Posted by: Col 


Saint could have won the overall with a 5.55 or higher prediction in December instead of going low with 4.50.


Bolty and myself could also have won with a high enough prediction but we all went below average.


Nevertheless its a 12 month contest and SSWD was the most consistent player throughout the year. 


Wrightington, Wigan

Remove ads from site

Ads