Just minor changes on the 12z GFS run, then...

The GFS, and all NWP at the moment for that matter, is more erratic than Boris's hair style.

And -2/-3 uppers will do the job nicely in a continental feed with sub zero dewpoints. But it's another OP run too early IMO. If this pattern persists until 120hrs or so then we can start talking detail.

Now watch the ECM go the other way. 🤣🤣🤣

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_192_1.png 

i did say the 06z GFS OP run was a mild outlier - we can now see it changing again to something more in line with ECM/GEM etc!! Enjoying this roller coaster everyone!?

Let's just hope the ECM doesn't flip to mild now and that this OP run doesn't become a mild outlier.

“Temperatures will generally be near to below normal, perhaps rather cold in the south, feeling chilly where any fog persists”

Indeed, but there's a lot of rain behind that snow. It'll either be historic, wet, or miss altogether.

Now that's a vague prediction I know, but sliders are nail-biters 6 hours out, let alone more than 100. It's definitely got my attention though!

Perfect timing!

(just about 50 miles further north, please!)

The chart for noon on Christmas Day has got me fantasising about a rerun of Christmas 1927. 

I think GFS is giving me the those come to bed eyes.

If you were asked to draw your perfect set-up for Christmas night you could not get any better than that 228hrs chart. Bitterly cold winds packing in snow showers into the east as early prolonged snow fades from the south.
A fantasy - you better believe it lol.

If this 12z GFS Op run comes about we could be looking at the coldest Christmas since 2010 and the first proper white Christmas since 2010 or 2004 for some.

12pm the temps are at or below freezing for many northern parts and at or just only slightly above freezing for many southern parts:

12z Gfs:

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_228_1.png 

ECM:

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU00_240_1.png 

i doubt it would happen but one to save if that’s your sort of thing. The small changes about T96 make a difference and it sort of agrees with ECM. I hold out hope as I stand to win a nice amount of money

Nine days out from Christmas, and we've got yellow over Greenland at T120 on both UKMO and GFS.

It doesn't really get much more exciting from a model-watching point of view.

Oh, if only just for once the op GFS could be right this far out!

This year will be 51 years since the last widespread snow and settling event in the south on Christmas Day.

One can dream, anyway!

Good news! Let's hope the ECM 12z doesn't downgrade and that this 12z Operational isn't a cold outlier! Fingers crossed.

Definitely the best chance for a proper white Christmas for many in a very long time.

There is always:

MJO not playing ball into Phase 8

Solar activity is picking up

To role out.

But what a stunning chart for Xmas Day with -10hpa 850's and strong easterly winds.  222 hours away unfortunately. 

Absolutely, I'll treat this with as much caution as we have treated its milder wobbles. Definitely going in the right direction so far for coldies today. Hopefully the ECM can complete the set.

I'll await that, and the GEFS with interest!