Indeed so, Darren.

I turned 42 a couple of weeks ago and there have been only four years in my lifetime when I can clearly recall snow lying on the ground on Christmas Day where I live (that is what I personally classify as a 'White Xmas). Those years were 1995, 2000, 2009 and 2010.

Will 2021 join that list? We shall soon find out.

Its rare to see cold build up, and arrive only on the big day... Fantastic charts

could all still go Pete Tong this far out though... so at this stage, titilation only

Merseyside/Manchester/SW Lancs to miss out!

Not that it'll turn out just like that 

GEM too progressive this time, but the details will keep changing

Could do with ECM staying on track this evening.

Dedication!

So many similarities with the "winter of discontent" are falling into place this year! But a different party in power this time

PLEASE don't post any pics of polar bears.

🤣🤣🤣

Eye watering GFS ! 

Lets see how we go with the GEM now, fingers crossed it maintains its broad pattern. 

GEM as the low running across the southern UK, putting the snow line further north.

Got to say that for anyone north of the line from around Norwich to Shrewsbury, it's an absolute belter of an evolution. For the south, much less so.

just as likely - Midlands north would have a great festive time!

You said it was all over after the 6z😀

I'd much prefer an evolution that manages to get pretty much all areas white!

Oh believe me it is. The models are just giving us an extra couple of days of teases. 

There have been quite a few occasions in the history of this forum when one or more members has said they thought it was all over for a cold spell in the winter, only for the models to do a volte-face. Andy Woodock's WIO post back in February '05 when it seemed the models were backtracking from a previously suggested cold spell and then brought it back still sticks out in my memory.

I've seen worse GEFS mean charts for Christmas Day...

In reality, digging through the members, that has to be one of the snowiest runs in general for Christmas Day that I've ever seen. And I've seen a few!

This stage of looking for cold is my favourite part - the whole will it, won't it part. We all know that the UK is inevitably skewed to the "won't" option, but the possibility that it might just happen is mildly intoxicating. Either that, or it's the after-effects of that jab I had yesterday kicking in!

(Incidentally the overall upper pattern of a high /ridge near Iceland is interesting to see, for there lies the holy grail of a reinforcing cold spell rather than a blink-and-you-miss it option. Will the models keep it up? I wouldn't be surprised if they did, this time. We'll see soon enough!)

(A genuine question, by the way!)

It's symptomatic of a split jet, a blocking pattern, and is typically the sort of thing that causes lows to barrel along to the south of us, or over the south of us. That's a key ingredient of a channel low (which is something several of the 12z GEFS members show, rain to the south and heavy snow to the north). It's also a driver behind that holy grail pattern of high pressure migrating from Scandinavia to Greenland (and, if you're lucky, back again, after a fresh plunge of deep cold air into Scandinavia).

If you look at all the major cold spells you'll see ridging in that area in the vast majority of them. It's something which is pretty much essential if you want prolonged cold, rather than just a short blast.

Ta.

Ha! Nice.

Even if that's taking i9nto account today's GFS 12Z run (which I doubt), those odds are ridiculously short.