www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU00_228_1.png
Snapshot of the op but next Saturday could be lively!

 

ECM ramps up the low as well - not a nice day for walking and the first proper leaf fall!

The difference a a couple of hundred miles makes.  Most of our leaves have fallen around here.  Only a few oak trees remain around here.

Has been orange floors for about 2 weeks in lovely dry weather.  Stunning actually.

 

 

The difference a a couple of hundred miles makes.  Most of our leaves have fallen around here.  Only a few oak trees remain around here.

 

Has been orange floors for about 2 weeks in lovely dry weather.  Stunning actually.

I've never seen the leaves on my Norway Maple so vivid - they almost glow. About two-thirds now lying on my lawn and in need of clearing up, though (). The birches, elder and smaller Japanese maple are similarly down to about a third left. The whitebeam is virtually leafless, as is the larger Japanese Maple. The 'corkscrew' hazel, on the other hand, has all its leaves and half of those are fully green still. 

A set of 'back to the 70s' charts. We lived in Manchester around that time and you could absolutely count on the Snake Pass being blocked by snow in the last week of November

I think those living along the East Coast may need to be concerned about Spring tidal surges if the latest round of outputs are to go by on. Here's hoping that it ends up being less of a worry come the moment.

I think they may be lucky in that  around the 27th is just after the neap tides, not the highest of springs.

Looks like a cold spell of some sort is increasingly likely but as others have said it is all a bit flabby and mid-Atlantic based rather than being convincing northern blocking as was hinted at in some of the GFS's wilder moments recently. GEM for instance definitely has the air of a toppler about it.

Looks like a cold spell of some sort is increasingly likely but as others have said it is all a bit flabby and mid-Atlantic based rather than being convincing northern blocking as was hinted at in some of the GFS's wilder moments recently. GEM for instance definitely has the air of a toppler about it.

Yep - a cool down then cold but still a week away. Trend is good on the ensembles though

The longer term pattern looks very well signalled with an anomalous NNW'ly flow. A spell of weather varying between cool WNW'lies and cold NNE'lies. The position of the mid Atlantic block will be the main player in determining how the specifics play out. If its too far west then we bring milder SW'lies into the mix, if its too far east it will be largely settled with night frosts and generally pleasant conditions. Based on the current output (and yes it is still a little way off) you would have to be confident of a wintry spell of weather particularly for the NE and Scotland with transitory wintriness further south at times too.

Interesting times ahead !  

Its quite an impressive cold spell for November. Not a patch on 2010 of course, but probably cold enough for some rare Autumn snow for some parts of England at times.

A set of 'back to the 70s' charts. We lived in Manchester around that time and you could absolutely count on the Snake Pass being blocked by snow in the last week of November

It's perhaps no coincidence that Arctic Ice area ecovery this year has been faster than recent years?

A set of 'back to the 70s' charts. We lived in Manchester around that time and you could absolutely count on the Snake Pass being blocked by snow in the last week of November

Was the RAC rally held in late November? I seem to recall there was often snow during it in the 1980s.

 

Was the RAC rally held in late November? I seem to recall there was often snow during it in the 1980s.

Yeh I remember a few segments through north wales, was always a couple of runs through snowy patches...

ICON first out the blocks and at 144 the Atlantic high is much further North, setting up a decent Northerly to follow from this point instead of a deep low dropping across the UK as per the 06Z offering.

You can tell something's in the air when I start to comment on each run before it's complete. Must avoid it really

You can tell something's in the air when I start to comment on each run before it's complete. Must avoid it really

I remember the days when there'd be about half a dozen people simultaneously posting as the runs came out. Ahhhh.... nostalgia 

 

 

 

I remember the days when there'd be about half a dozen people simultaneously posting as the runs came out. Ahhhh.... nostalgia 

Yeah now nobody gives a flying ****! The old days were fun. 😂😂

We are a bunch of cynical old trouts. 

I’ve kept quiet about the upcoming spell - I don’t see anything to be massively excited about quite yet, especially since the block looks to become a bit flabbier than first modelled, although plenty of time for change.

Make no bones about it though - the outlook is generally cold. 

Aware this is the 06z.

 

 

 

I remember the days when there'd be about half a dozen people simultaneously posting as the runs came out. Ahhhh.... nostalgia 

Indeed

The UKMO again looks very clean with the main Northerly next week, whilst GFS again complicates things with jinxy shortwaves developing in the 'corridor of uncertainty' and pushing down from the NW. I wouldn't bet against GFS as it's pretty good in these situations - to a certain point.

Snow over the Scottish hills?

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ukmetuk.aspx?run=12&charthour=168&chartname=precip_type&chartregion=uk-region&charttag=Precip%20type