With the ongoing La Nina event, it's always been likely that a cooler trend would manifest sometime between final third October and mid-November. I banked on it being by the final week of the month but alas, it looks to be in the first week of November instead.
This is the trouble we face with making CET estimates 4.5 weeks in advance: There is such high sensitivity to the exact timing of pattern changes.
So, we have a chillier look to early November but then what? I have a feeling it will be an especially challenging month to anticipate, as there are some conflicting signals from the major driving forces. December will probably have similar difficulties - no easy ride to the finish line I'm afraid!
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https://twitter.com/peacockreports 2021's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.4°C 21st Jul | T-Min: -6.8°C New Years Day! | Wettest Day: 34.1mm 2nd Oct | Ice Days: 2 (27th Jan & 8th Feb)
Keep Calm and Forecast On