Met Office Hadley        12.4c        Anomaly      1.4c provisional to 267h

Metcheck                     11.87c      Anomaly      1.36c

Netweather                  12.47c      Anomaly      2.08c

Peasedown St John     12.15c     Anomaly      1.7c.   

---

Any prospect of a downwards adjustment?

---

Any prospect of a downwards adjustment?

I hope - I'm miles out with 11.2C.

---

 

I hope - I'm miles out with 11.2C.

Last 3 days of the month the temp is down    a litttle.... 

---

Met Office Hadley       12.4c       Anomaly      1.5c provisional to 27th

Metcheck                    11.96c     Anomaly      1.45c

Netweather                 12.57c     Anomaly      2.18c

Peasedowm St John    12.37c    Anomaly       1.93c.   

---

Met Office Hadley       12.5c       Anomaly      1.7c provisional to 28th

Metcheck                    12.02c     Anomaly       1.51c

Netweather                 12.63c     Anomaly       2.24c      

Peasedown St John    12.32c     Anomaly      1.92c.

---

Any prospect of a downwards adjustment?

GW was estimating the CET was about 0.5C too high on 16th October so a biggish adjustment seems likely this month.

We'll probably finish around 11.8 to 12.0 I'd think?

---

No real change from my CET estimate last week. It looks like we may just sneak a 12C with my current estimate coming out at 12.01C.

Met Office Hadley         12.5c      Anomaly       1.8c provisional to29th

Metcheck                      11.96c    Anomaly        1.45c

Netweather                   12.63c     Anomaly       2.22c

Peasedown St John     12.28c     Anomaly       1.83c.         

---

Met Office Hadley        12.5c        Anomaly      1.8c provisional to 30th

Metcheck                     11.87c      Anomaly      1.36c

Netweather                  12.56c      Anomaly      2.17c 

Peasedown St John     2.27c       Anomaly     1.82c.

   

---

Final October estimate from me is exactly 12.00C

Chart 1

Chart 2

Woohoo! Fingers crossed that you're right GW; it's been absolutely ages since I got a month correct.
Mind you I think I need more than one lucky guess to redeem my performance this year - at least I'll no longer languish near the bottom of the table... until the end of November when it all goes wrong again 🤣

---

Confirmed as 12.1c



https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cetml1659on.dat 

So the milder model swing a couple of days into the month proved insightful after all.

Not that it told us anything new about the final third of the month, which longer range modelling was insistent on featuring a negative NAO setup. That went well, didn't  it?  So it might not have given the later entries that much of an advantage, after all, just a tenth or two.

 

Anyway, here's a fun fact: If you had used the 1991-2020 long-term average for each month of the year so far, you'd be sat in 23rd place out of the 33 still in the game (if the LTA is counted as a player). Plenty of variability around climatology this year!

Incidentally, if we had a 'Most Like Climatology' award, kendalian would be the leading contender as of now, just 0.01 away. Next closest is Caz, 0.08 away.

---

So it might not have given the later entries that much of an advantage, after all, just a tenth or two.

 

I think it was Sept late entries that were punished.

 

---

 

I think it was Sept late entries that were punished.

Correct - I was just contemplating whether there was a similar advantage this time around, having raised the subject earlier in the month. The model output shifted notably milder during 1st-2nd Oct. On the other hand, the colder signal remained longer-term.

How much the model shift for the nearer-term influenced estimates made on 1st or 2nd, is anyone's guess. When I made mine on 30th Sep, I never imagined there would be so many markedly above average estimates, but that was mainly due to the colder forecast model  signals for the final third (that proved far from the mark).

---

 

Correct - I was just contemplating whether there was a similar advantage this time around, having raised the subject earlier in the month. The model output shifted notably milder during 1st-2nd Oct. On the other hand, the colder signal remained longer-term.

How much the model shift for the nearer-term influenced estimates made on 1st or 2nd, is anyone's guess. When I made mine on 30th Sep, I never imagined there would be so many markedly above average estimates, but that was mainly due to the colder forecast model  signals for the final third (that proved far from the mark).

 

Well I wasn't late 

 

---

I might be wrong but I make it the 3rd warmest combined September-October in the CET series dating back to 1659. Equal with 1949 . Only 2005 and 2006 warmer. Pretty remarkable. 

---

Amazing that 2005 and 2006 both had such exceptional heat in the early autumn months.
I remember in 2005 there was talk of the warmest autumn record being broken, especially as November also started very mild, but then the final two weeks of November were very cold and totally scuppered it.
A year later of course 2006 made no such mistakes and we easily smashed our warmest autumn record with that amazing September then consistent mildness for the rest of the season .

Here are the charts for October. 

It was indeed the equal 3rd warmest September / October combination on record - 2005 and 2006 were warmer. Equal with 1949

Chart 1

Chart 2

Chart 3