I would like to see some clear nights next week. It's a good week for astrophotography with a new moon. I won't hold my breath though - a lot of cloud could be around in the S.E.

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I would like to see some clear nights next week. It's a good week for astrophotography with a new moon. I won't hold my breath though - a lot of cloud could be around in the S.E.

I hope so. Hadn't done any astrophotography since around 20 July, when I captured Jupiter & Saturn. Hope to get Uranus & Neptune this Autumn.

Wx summaries sow a bit of warmth in the SW week 1, in the SE week 2, but still underwhelming. Dry everywhere week 1, some rain in N Scotland week 2.

GFS op : large HP centred over NW Scotland to Sat 4th, some E or NE winds off the N Sea for S and SE England; then the centre moves S-wards to N France for a few days to Wed 8th and allowing trough to move in 1005mb Western Isles Fri 10th before showing signs of revival from the SW Sun 12th

GEFS ; temps close to norm with good agreement between runs to Sun 5th (op is a cold outlier) after which marginally warmer on average but wide range (op & control then amongst the warmest at least for the S). very dry in the S; perhaps a little rain week 2 in N

ECM ; a  collapse of HP a week earlier, Fri 3rd with broad an shallow trough over all UK; HP reviving from the SE Mon 6th

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The general theme of the last few days has been the return to a 'more typical' situation of higher pressure to the south of the UK. This of course would encourage a westerly flow and there are also hints of continental air pushing northwards in early September as high pressure nudges into the south of the UK.

So some chance of a brief Indian summer (depending on how you define that!), but always a risk that low pressure areas to the north of the UK sink far enough south to disrupt the whole of the UK.

Perhaps Tim S will get a few grapes harvested after all!?

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The season of mists and mellow fruitfulness 'tis nearly upon us..

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Doesn't look like September will be giving us a late season heatwave, so straight into Autumn it will be...

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Doesn't look like September will be giving us a late season heatwave, so straight into Autumn it will be...

12z ensembles suggest a warm and dry first week

 

12z ensembles suggest a warm and dry first week

Had a feeling that September might be the month to see the first ever wall to wall sunshine since mid June here only 1 day in 92 of summer day had been wall to wall sunshine so far. 

Warm and dry first half of September but how much cloud? It's been the bane of the whole summer.

 

 

 

 

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Warm and dry first half of September but how much cloud? It's been the bane of the whole summer.

 

A London-centric view? The WX summaries keep it cool for the north though today's view is for dry everywhere. However, I agree, it's time the SE got some better weather.

GEFS - see above but note that Scotland temp declines towards the norm and below in week 2, and has more though still small amounts if rain then

GFS - HP continues centred over NW Scotland to Fri 3rd with NE-lies for the E Coast of UK. IT then moves SE an settles over the Low Countries 1030mb Tue 7th before moving N again and allowing trough of LP to approach from the S Fri 10th. This trough comes to nothing and HP moves in from the SW to become centred over the Channel Mon 13th with SW-lies for NI & Scotland

ECM - differs from GFS after Fri 3rd with first a shallow LP over the SW and then a major trough approaching NW Scotland 995mb Rockall Tue 7th with pressure low across most of UK (the BBC WFTWA last night had a similar downgrade for later next weekend)

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The continuing dryness of the outlook is particularly notable.

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A London-centric view? The WX summaries keep it cool for the north though today's view is for dry everywhere. However, I agree, it's time the SE got some better weather.

GEFS - see above but note that Scotland temp declines towards the norm and below in week 2, and has more though still small amounts if rain then

GFS - HP continues centred over NW Scotland to Fri 3rd with NE-lies for the E Coast of UK. IT then moves SE an settles over the Low Countries 1030mb Tue 7th before moving N again and allowing trough of LP to approach from the S Fri 10th. This trough comes to nothing and HP moves in from the SW to become centred over the Channel Mon 13th with SW-lies for NI & Scotland

ECM - differs from GFS after Fri 3rd with first a shallow LP over the SW and then a major trough approaching NW Scotland 995mb Rockall Tue 7th with pressure low across most of UK (the BBC WFTWA last night had a similar downgrade for later next weekend)

The SE deserves some warmth .

 

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The SE deserves some warmth .

 

I suspect in absolute terms it has been a warmer summer in the SE than in most of the U.K. (not in terms of deviation from climate mmeans).

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I suspect in absolute terms it has been a warmer summer in the SE than in most of the U.K. (not in terms of deviation from climate mmeans).

True, just about, but this summer has gone  a long way towards evening up a typical difference between the Scottish lowlands (avg 11-12C for summer months) and the London area (avg 13-14C) with the MetO saying that the 'north' (however they define that) has been 1.5C above avg while the SE has been normal

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True, just about, but this summer has gone  a long way towards evening up a typical difference between the Scottish lowlands (avg 11-12C for summer months) and the London area (avg 13-14C) with the MetO saying that the 'north' (however they define that) has been 1.5C above avg while the SE has been normal

Yes, that’s true. “The North” has also had drier weather for some of the time which probably adds to the perception of a better summer (t)here.

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Well the Govt. keeps talking about "levelling up the North". I'm not sure they were talking about temps though!

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Wx back to where it was 2 days ago "Wx summaries sow a bit of warmth in the SW week 1, in the SE week 2, but still underwhelming. Dry everywhere week 1, some rain in N Scotland week 2." though the rain.little as it is, may be a bit more widespread

Jet is up around Iceland at the moment but eventually approaches the UK Thu 9th and a strong W-E flow over Britain developing from Sat 11th

GFS op : HP in position over N Scotland until Fri 3rd when weakening and moving SE and replaced by shallow trough over UK Mon 6th. HP then steadily re-builds from the SW reaching max extent across all UK Fri 10th before retreating back to SW with zonal flow for that weekend. Deep depression 975mb Rockall Tue 14th with NW-lies for all.

GEFS : temps a little above seasonal norm with good agreement to Sun 5th. With increasing uncertainty (and anything could happen after Wed 9th) mean of runs continues a little above norm at first but with suggestion of cooling from Sun 12th. Mainly dry, small amounts of rain in some runs after Sun 5th (one or two runs have big rainfall spikes in S at the end of sequence). 

ECM : general agreement with GFS, though the trough on Mon 6th is deeper and better defined

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The predicted tropical storm heading to the Azores could cause issues for the models

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There currently seem to be increasing signs of a fairly prolonged warm and settled spell at least for the southern half of the UK. The Op is relatively low in the 6z GFS spread and there are some very hot outcomes, with surface temperatures over N France approaching 40C in a couple of options. There are also some chilly outputs keeping mean temps more reasonable but still in the 20-23 range for much of the time.

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Next 7-10 days are looking as boring and mediocre as it has been for the last month or so.

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