The latest CET tracker suggests a very warm second half of July. Final CET mean coming out at 17.97C in the latest run.

My CET estimate is way below Hadley at the moment by over 0.5C. 

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Thanks for the update GW. That puts us on track for potentially a decent summer CET too.

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The latest CET tracker suggests a very warm second half of July. Final CET mean coming out at 17.97C in the latest run.

My CET estimate is way below Hadley at the moment by over 0.5C. 

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GOSH! 

On the cusp of an 18C CET July!!!!!!!!!!!!

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Met Office Hadley       17.5c.      Anomaly       1.6c provisional to 17th

Metcheck                    16.78c     Anomaly       -0.32c

Netweather                 17.21c     Anomaly       0.72c

Peasedown St John     16.72c     Anomaly     -0.13c. 

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Met Office Hadley       17.8c       Anomaly      1.9c provisional to 18th

Metcheck                    17.08c     Anomaly      0.62c

Netweather                 17.52c     Anomaly       1.03c

Peasedown St John     17.3c      Anomaly      0.45c..

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Met Office Hadley       17.8c       Anomaly      1.9c provisional to 18th

Metcheck                    17.08c     Anomaly      0.62c

Netweather                 17.52c     Anomaly       1.03c

Peasedown St John     17.3c      Anomaly      0.45c..

5 more days (at least) of rising mean I think, given both daytime and nocturnal forecast temperatures. 

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Could we push an 18-degree July out of this?

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Could we push an 18-degree July out of this?

With an AMBER HEAT WARNING for Thursday, anything could happen.

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Met Office Hadley        18.0c        Anomaly        2.1c provisional to 19th

Metcheck                     17.33c      Anomaly        0.27c

Netweather                  17.78c      Anomaly        1.29c

Peasedown St John     17.78c      Anomaly        0.93c.

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Met Office Hadley        18.2c        Anomaly        2.3c  provisional to 20th

Metcheck                     17.56c      Anomaly        1.10c

Netweather                  18.02c      Anomaly        1.52c

Peasedown St John     18.0c        Anomaly         1.15c.  

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Met Office Hadley     18.4c       Anomaly     2.8c. provisional to 21st

Metcheck                  16.9c       Anomaly     1.72c

Netweather               1.2c         Anomaly     1.71c

Peasedown St John   18.2c     anomaly    1.35c.   

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Met Office Hadley        18.6c        Anomaly         2.7c provisional to 22nd

Metcheck                     17.81c      Anomaly         1.35c

Netweather                  18.38c      Anomaly          1.88c

Peasedown st John    18.32c      Anomaly       1.47c.

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I think that pretty much guarantees a +18c finish, even if we only get average temps from now to month end and a small downgrade. 

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I think an +18C CET month is very unlikely?

Remember GW said we're probably doing to get a large downwards correction this month (0.5C) so in reality we're probably around 18.1 or 18.2.

I can't see the CET rising much more from here during the final week and may actually fall by a few tenths especially later next week

So I'm thinking mid to high 17's is most likely from here after downwards corrections?

Similar to August 2020 I think it'll be a case of close but no cigar haha! 

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I think an +18C CET month is very unlikely?

Remember GW said we're probably doing to get a large downwards correction this month (0.5C) so in reality we're probably around 18.1 or 18.2.

I can't see the CET rising much more from here during the final week and may actually fall by a few tenths especially later next week

So I'm thinking mid to high 17's is most likely from here after downwards corrections?

Similar to August 2020 I think it'll be a case of close but no cigar haha! 

Do you think so?  Yes, GW did indeed say Hadley was running high and I respect your opinion, so I’ll stand corrected!  Well, maybe I’ll sit on the fence for a few days!  

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Do you think so?  Yes, GW did indeed say Hadley was running high and I respect your opinion, so I’ll stand corrected!  Well, maybe I’ll sit on the fence for a few days!  

LOL! Well you might be right and I'm wrong.

At the end of the day we're all just speculating until we hear from our CET Guru aren't we? 

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LOL! Well you might be right and I'm wrong.

At the end of the day we're all just speculating until we hear from our CET Guru aren't we? 

  Yes!  GW is never far off!  

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Well, the estimated Hadley data is way off from my calculations this month. Currently a difference of 0.6C. I really don't know why Hadley bothers issuing estimated figures when they bear no resemblance to reality. Hadley is supposed to be revamping its CET series later this year and hopefully will start issuing more reliable and useful information during the month, rather than just at the month-end. 

By my calculations, the CET just reached over 18C today to 18.02C. It should hold steady for the next 4 days before falling away in the final 4 days of the month as temperatures go below average.

Currently, I am expecting the CET to finish at 17.68C. Warm but nothing special really. Could still be the joint 4th warmest July since 1995.

Could be the 5th warmest June / July combination since 1934. Well behind 1976, 2006, and 2018 and also slightly behind 2003. In good company though. 

Would need an August CET of 18.0C for this summer to be the 6th warmest in the past 50 years.

To get into the top 10 summer CETs of the last 50 years, August only needs a CET of 15.8C.

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Thanks GW 

17.7 could be the number then?  

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Well, the estimated Hadley data is way off from my calculations this month. Currently a difference of 0.6C. I really don't know why Hadley bothers issuing estimated figures when they bear no resemblance to reality. Hadley is supposed to be revamping its CET series later this year and hopefully will start issuing more reliable and useful information during the month, rather than just at the month-end. 

By my calculations, the CET just reached over 18C today to 18.02C. It should hold steady for the next 4 days before falling away in the final 4 days of the month as temperatures go below average.

Currently, I am expecting the CET to finish at 17.68C. Warm but nothing special really. Could still be the joint 4th warmest July since 1995.

Could be the 5th warmest June / July combination since 1934. Well behind 1976, 2006, and 2018 and also slightly behind 2003. In good company though. 

Would need an August CET of 18.0C for this summer to be the 6th warmest in the past 50 years.

To get into the top 10 summer CETs of the last 50 years, August only needs a CET of 15.8C.

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Thanks GW- brilliantly precise summary of what would be needed for a good overall summer temp wise; I type this as I watch bizarre and exciting cloud forms to the S - might add to summer rainfall!

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For us rain soaked, cloud infested southerners (last 8 days excepted) , I'm amazed that we are looking at a top 5 finish for June, July ! The recent heatwave has really affected western parts too which has massively boosted the CET. Even Stonyhurst got in on the act. Once again it reiterates that the far south is the big anomaly this summer.

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