Quantum
30 June 2021 12:19:07

My view is that this is probably something like a once in a 1000 year event. It will be, probably, the most extreme weather event any of us have ever observed anywhere on the planet during our entire lifetimes. I cannot think of any weather event anywhere that comes close to this on its rarity.


Climate change will have helped by shifting the entire distribtution along a couple of degrees, but even without a background global warming the record would not have been in doubt and it would still be extreme beyond belief.


Think about this. A place in Canada, which did not hold the record before, just broke the record for the entire country, for the entire year, three times in a row. the 49.6C Lynton record is so extreme that Canada has just jumped from being rank 50 to rank 25 in terms of countries ranked by highest recoreded temperature. And that occured in June, not July or August. It is very unusual for a country to have its highest ever recorded temperature in June. Here's a challenge, find some examples that didn't occur during this heatwave. The event was so extreme that I can pretty much guarantee about 90% of all northern hemisphere June temp records happened during this heatwave.


It is simply the most extreme weather event we have or will ever see. More unlikely than Hurricane Patricia in 2015


 


 


 


Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Bolty
30 June 2021 12:27:53

Originally Posted by: Quantum 


My view is that this is probably something like a once in a 1000 year event. It will be, probably, the most extreme weather event any of us have ever observed anywhere on the planet during our entire lifetimes. I cannot think of any weather event anywhere that comes close to this on its rarity.


Climate change will have helped by shifting the entire distribtution along a couple of degrees, but even without a background global warming the record would not have been in doubt and it would still be extreme beyond belief.


Think about this. A place in Canada, which did not hold the record before, just broke the record for the entire country, for the entire year, three times in a row. the 49.6C Lynton record is so extreme that Canada has just jumped from being rank 50 to rank 25 in terms of countries ranked by highest recoreded temperature. And that occured in June, not July or August. It is very unusual for a country to have its highest ever recorded temperature in June. Here's a challenge, find some examples that didn't occur during this heatwave. The event was so extreme that I can pretty much guarantee about 90% of all northern hemisphere June temp records happened during this heatwave.


It is simply the most extreme weather event we have or will ever see. More unlikely than Hurricane Patricia in 2015


 


 


 



I agree with this viewpoint. The pattern that has occurred across western North America would have still produced an exceptional heat wave even before the industrial era, but it has been excerbated by climate change. Without any background warming, we may still have seen the Canadian record go, but it may have been a high of 45/46°C, instead of the 49.6°C we have seen.


Scott
Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.
My weather station 
Quantum
30 June 2021 12:35:38

Originally Posted by: Bolty 


 


I agree with this viewpoint. The pattern that has occurred across western North America would have still produced an exceptional heat wave even before the industrial era, but it has been excerbated by climate change. Without any background warming, we may still have seen the Canadian record go, but it may have been a high of 45/46°C, instead of the 49.6°C we have seen.



Indeed. Looks like you could blame maybe 2C of it on climate change. But look how unremarkable the area is for the local effect of Global warming. If this kind of thing was going to happen anywhere you would think Russia or somewhere in the arctic.


The difficulty, I suppose, is acessing the impact of global warming on the likelyhood of this synoptic situation happening. I mean we can't rule out these synoptics actually being less likely due to climate change rather than more likely.


Making Sense of 'Climate Sensitivity' – Climate Change: Vital Signs of the  Planet


Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
picturesareme
30 June 2021 12:41:10

Originally Posted by: Quantum 


My view is that this is probably something like a once in a 1000 year event. It will be, probably, the most extreme weather event any of us have ever observed anywhere on the planet during our entire lifetimes. 


 


 


 



Well considering it was less than 100 years ago when 45C was being recorded in Canada, i don't think this is a once in 1000 year event. Canada is a large country with vast emptiness, and i don't doubt for one minute that similar temperatures have occurred there but simply being missed due to the vastness. 

Quantum
30 June 2021 12:43:44

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 


 


Well considering it was less than 100 years ago when 45C was being recorded in Canada, i don't think this is a once in 1000 year event. Canada is a large country with vast emptiness, and i don't doubt for one minute that similar temperatures have occurred there but simply being missed due to the vastness. 



But the 45C was set during a more appropiate time of year, during more sensible (though unusual) synoptics and was hard fought. The 45C record was unremarkable amongst records if that makes sense. This one is a record of records in many respects.


It would be like getting a bunch of lottery winners together and then finding the lottery winner that won the lottery again.


 


Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Quantum
30 June 2021 12:44:51

The UK record, for example, set during 2019 was impressive. But again not that unusual when compared to the pool of record winners. The mild wet winter of 2015, though, is a bit more like the Canada record.


King vs king of kings.


 


Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Gandalf The White
30 June 2021 12:56:51

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 


 


Well considering it was less than 100 years ago when 45C was being recorded in Canada, i don't think this is a once in 1000 year event. Canada is a large country with vast emptiness, and i don't doubt for one minute that similar temperatures have occurred there but simply being missed due to the vastness. 



I think that demonstrates a remarkable lack of grasp of what is happening to this planet.


But applying your logic even the record could also have been broken in many places across Canada, surely? 


 


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Gandalf The White
30 June 2021 13:06:17

Originally Posted by: Quantum 


 


Indeed. Looks like you could blame maybe 2C of it on climate change. But look how unremarkable the area is for the local effect of Global warming. If this kind of thing was going to happen anywhere you would think Russia or somewhere in the arctic.


The difficulty, I suppose, is acessing the impact of global warming on the likelyhood of this synoptic situation happening. I mean we can't rule out these synoptics actually being less likely due to climate change rather than more likely.


Making Sense of 'Climate Sensitivity' – Climate Change: Vital Signs of the  Planet



But there's also the potential impact of climate change on synoptic patterns. It is also possible that this high pressure belt might not have been so extensive or so stable.


The unarguable fact is that new maximum temperature records are falling across the globe whilst there are very very few new record lows being seen. That skewing is also a strong indicator that something significant is happening. Plus, that's with CO2 at 415ppm. We're heading for 500ppm within 30-40 years.


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Chunky Pea
30 June 2021 13:08:25

Originally Posted by: Quantum 


It is very unusual for a country to have its highest ever recorded temperature in June.



Is it? I would have though, given that June is, on average, the least humid of all the summer months, that 'dry heat', which builds quicker, and higher would be more the norm. For example, the all time highest temperature here in Ireland occurred in June 1887. 


Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 


"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Chunky Pea
30 June 2021 13:14:58

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


 


I think that demonstrates a remarkable lack of grasp of what is happening to this planet.


 



Weather has always happened. 


Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 


"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Gandalf The White
30 June 2021 13:16:42

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 


 


Is it? I would have though, given that June is, on average, the least humid of all the summer months, that 'dry heat', which builds quicker, and higher would be more the norm. For example, the all time highest temperature here in Ireland occurred in June 1887. 



But surely the primarily reason for July being warmer than June is the ocean lag?  If you're inland on a large continental landmass with negligible airflow isn't the latter part of June going to produce the maximum solar input and therefore have the greatest potential for high temperatures?  I know there are other factors such as soil moisture.


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Gandalf The White
30 June 2021 13:17:50

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 


 


Weather has always happened. 



Whoosh...


A classic pointless sound bite, I'm afraid.  


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Chunky Pea
30 June 2021 13:24:00

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


 


But surely the primarily reason for July being warmer than June is the ocean lag?  If you're inland on a large continental landmass with negligible airflow isn't the latter part of June going to produce the maximum solar input and therefore have the greatest potential for high temperatures?  I know there are other factors such as soil moisture.



The NW quadrant of the US, and I can only assume by that that the the SW of Canada has been exceptional dry for many months now, so it is doubtless that soil moisture (or lack thereof) played no small part in this event. 


Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 


"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Chunky Pea
30 June 2021 13:26:18

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


 


Whoosh...


A classic pointless sound bite, I'm afraid.  



Not pointless at all. Records were meant to be broken, just as they always have been. 


Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 


"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
picturesareme
30 June 2021 13:28:07

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


 


But surely the primarily reason for July being warmer than June is the ocean lag?  If you're inland on a large continental landmass with negligible airflow isn't the latter part of June going to produce the maximum solar input and therefore have the greatest potential for high temperatures?  I know there are other factors such as soil moisture.



And what a surprise that this has happened on a large continental landmass with the highest temperatures being located within a valley in the rocky mountains. Sitting a similar distance inland from the sea as death valley.

Hungry Tiger
30 June 2021 13:28:42

 


May be an image of body of water and text that says 'CANADA Lytton, BC 49.6C 29 June 2021 GETTY'


 


Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


Hungry Tiger
30 June 2021 13:39:41

May be an image of wrist watch


Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


Gandalf The White
30 June 2021 16:14:52

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 


 


Not pointless at all. Records were meant to be broken, just as they always have been. 



And another whoosh....


Records are going to be broken but like a die that keeps landing on 'six' when 99% of the records are being broken in one direction then there's clearly something significant going on.   In this case we're busy loading the atmosphere with greenhouse gases.


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Gandalf The White
30 June 2021 16:15:53

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 


 


The NW quadrant of the US, and I can only assume by that that the the SW of Canada has been exceptional dry for many months now, so it is doubtless that soil moisture (or lack thereof) played a small part in this event. 



Fixed for you.


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Col
  • Col
  • Advanced Member
30 June 2021 16:21:51

Originally Posted by: Quantum 


My view is that this is probably something like a once in a 1000 year event. It will be, probably, the most extreme weather event any of us have ever observed anywhere on the planet during our entire lifetimes. I cannot think of any weather event anywhere that comes close to this on its rarity.


Climate change will have helped by shifting the entire distribtution along a couple of degrees, but even without a background global warming the record would not have been in doubt and it would still be extreme beyond belief.


Think about this. A place in Canada, which did not hold the record before, just broke the record for the entire country, for the entire year, three times in a row. the 49.6C Lynton record is so extreme that Canada has just jumped from being rank 50 to rank 25 in terms of countries ranked by highest recoreded temperature. And that occured in June, not July or August. It is very unusual for a country to have its highest ever recorded temperature in June. Here's a challenge, find some examples that didn't occur during this heatwave. The event was so extreme that I can pretty much guarantee about 90% of all northern hemisphere June temp records happened during this heatwave.


It is simply the most extreme weather event we have or will ever see. More unlikely than Hurricane Patricia in 2015



I was thinking about that. Not a great many countries will have ever recorded 50C. certainly not in Europe or even very close, think the record is around 48C. But now Canada has overtaken anywhere in Europe and I guess may even get 50C, don't know if the heat has even peaked yet.


Col
Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg
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