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Quantum
30 June 2021 12:44:51

The UK record, for example, set during 2019 was impressive. But again not that unusual when compared to the pool of record winners. The mild wet winter of 2015, though, is a bit more like the Canada record.


King vs king of kings.


 


Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Gandalf The White
30 June 2021 12:56:51


 


Well considering it was less than 100 years ago when 45C was being recorded in Canada, i don't think this is a once in 1000 year event. Canada is a large country with vast emptiness, and i don't doubt for one minute that similar temperatures have occurred there but simply being missed due to the vastness. 


Originally Posted by: picturesareme 


I think that demonstrates a remarkable lack of grasp of what is happening to this planet.


But applying your logic even the record could also have been broken in many places across Canada, surely? 


 


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Gandalf The White
30 June 2021 13:06:17


 


Indeed. Looks like you could blame maybe 2C of it on climate change. But look how unremarkable the area is for the local effect of Global warming. If this kind of thing was going to happen anywhere you would think Russia or somewhere in the arctic.


The difficulty, I suppose, is acessing the impact of global warming on the likelyhood of this synoptic situation happening. I mean we can't rule out these synoptics actually being less likely due to climate change rather than more likely.


Making Sense of 'Climate Sensitivity' – Climate Change: Vital Signs of the  Planet


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


But there's also the potential impact of climate change on synoptic patterns. It is also possible that this high pressure belt might not have been so extensive or so stable.


The unarguable fact is that new maximum temperature records are falling across the globe whilst there are very very few new record lows being seen. That skewing is also a strong indicator that something significant is happening. Plus, that's with CO2 at 415ppm. We're heading for 500ppm within 30-40 years.


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Chunky Pea
30 June 2021 13:08:25


It is very unusual for a country to have its highest ever recorded temperature in June.


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Is it? I would have though, given that June is, on average, the least humid of all the summer months, that 'dry heat', which builds quicker, and higher would be more the norm. For example, the all time highest temperature here in Ireland occurred in June 1887. 


Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 


"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Chunky Pea
30 June 2021 13:14:58


 


I think that demonstrates a remarkable lack of grasp of what is happening to this planet.


 


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


Weather has always happened. 


Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 


"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Gandalf The White
30 June 2021 13:16:42


 


Is it? I would have though, given that June is, on average, the least humid of all the summer months, that 'dry heat', which builds quicker, and higher would be more the norm. For example, the all time highest temperature here in Ireland occurred in June 1887. 


Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 


But surely the primarily reason for July being warmer than June is the ocean lag?  If you're inland on a large continental landmass with negligible airflow isn't the latter part of June going to produce the maximum solar input and therefore have the greatest potential for high temperatures?  I know there are other factors such as soil moisture.


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Gandalf The White
30 June 2021 13:17:50


 


Weather has always happened. 


Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 


Whoosh...


A classic pointless sound bite, I'm afraid.  


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Chunky Pea
30 June 2021 13:24:00


 


But surely the primarily reason for July being warmer than June is the ocean lag?  If you're inland on a large continental landmass with negligible airflow isn't the latter part of June going to produce the maximum solar input and therefore have the greatest potential for high temperatures?  I know there are other factors such as soil moisture.


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


The NW quadrant of the US, and I can only assume by that that the the SW of Canada has been exceptional dry for many months now, so it is doubtless that soil moisture (or lack thereof) played no small part in this event. 


Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 


"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Chunky Pea
30 June 2021 13:26:18


 


Whoosh...


A classic pointless sound bite, I'm afraid.  


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


Not pointless at all. Records were meant to be broken, just as they always have been. 


Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 


"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
picturesareme
30 June 2021 13:28:07


 


But surely the primarily reason for July being warmer than June is the ocean lag?  If you're inland on a large continental landmass with negligible airflow isn't the latter part of June going to produce the maximum solar input and therefore have the greatest potential for high temperatures?  I know there are other factors such as soil moisture.


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


And what a surprise that this has happened on a large continental landmass with the highest temperatures being located within a valley in the rocky mountains. Sitting a similar distance inland from the sea as death valley.

Hungry Tiger
30 June 2021 13:28:42

 


May be an image of body of water and text that says 'CANADA Lytton, BC 49.6C 29 June 2021 GETTY'


 


Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


Hungry Tiger
30 June 2021 13:39:41

May be an image of wrist watch


Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


Gandalf The White
30 June 2021 16:14:52


 


Not pointless at all. Records were meant to be broken, just as they always have been. 


Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 


And another whoosh....


Records are going to be broken but like a die that keeps landing on 'six' when 99% of the records are being broken in one direction then there's clearly something significant going on.   In this case we're busy loading the atmosphere with greenhouse gases.


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Gandalf The White
30 June 2021 16:15:53


 


The NW quadrant of the US, and I can only assume by that that the the SW of Canada has been exceptional dry for many months now, so it is doubtless that soil moisture (or lack thereof) played a small part in this event. 


Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 


Fixed for you.


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Col
  • Col
  • Advanced Member
30 June 2021 16:21:51


My view is that this is probably something like a once in a 1000 year event. It will be, probably, the most extreme weather event any of us have ever observed anywhere on the planet during our entire lifetimes. I cannot think of any weather event anywhere that comes close to this on its rarity.


Climate change will have helped by shifting the entire distribtution along a couple of degrees, but even without a background global warming the record would not have been in doubt and it would still be extreme beyond belief.


Think about this. A place in Canada, which did not hold the record before, just broke the record for the entire country, for the entire year, three times in a row. the 49.6C Lynton record is so extreme that Canada has just jumped from being rank 50 to rank 25 in terms of countries ranked by highest recoreded temperature. And that occured in June, not July or August. It is very unusual for a country to have its highest ever recorded temperature in June. Here's a challenge, find some examples that didn't occur during this heatwave. The event was so extreme that I can pretty much guarantee about 90% of all northern hemisphere June temp records happened during this heatwave.


It is simply the most extreme weather event we have or will ever see. More unlikely than Hurricane Patricia in 2015


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


I was thinking about that. Not a great many countries will have ever recorded 50C. certainly not in Europe or even very close, think the record is around 48C. But now Canada has overtaken anywhere in Europe and I guess may even get 50C, don't know if the heat has even peaked yet.


Col
Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg
Quantum
30 June 2021 16:23:41


 


Is it? I would have though, given that June is, on average, the least humid of all the summer months, that 'dry heat', which builds quicker, and higher would be more the norm. For example, the all time highest temperature here in Ireland occurred in June 1887. 


Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 


Yeh I looked into this a few years back.


Excluding regions near the equator (which don't really have seasons like the rest of us), for the NHem July is the most common hottest month and the most common for heat records, August is not far behind though with plenty of all time records of its own. Beyond that you very occasionally see September and June but its really really rare.


 


Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Quantum
30 June 2021 16:27:21

Because of this single heatwave we now have a bunch of locations along the west coast all reporting June as their record breaking month.


Again I expect the number of locations like this on the entire planet has gone up more than 10 fold in the last week.


 


Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Devonian
30 June 2021 17:04:09


 


Weather has always happened. 


Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 


That is a statement on a par with 'dogs can bark'.

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
30 June 2021 17:22:37
It’s all fairly uncontroversial I think. We know global temperatures have warmed by around 1-1.5C and continental mid latitude temperatures by 2-3C. We also know this was a freakish weather pattern and would have caused record threatening temperatures in the absence of climate change.

It was 49.6C yesterday in Lytton. All things being equal the same pattern might have given 47C a hundred years ago.

The only more complex bit is whether climate change makes the synoptic pattern itself more likely, or indeed preconditions for extreme heat (through greater évapotranspiration in the preceding weeks). The jury’s out on that stuff.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Bolty
30 June 2021 17:30:08


 


I was thinking about that. Not a great many countries will have ever recorded 50C. certainly not in Europe or even very close, think the record is around 48C. But now Canada has overtaken anywhere in Europe and I guess may even get 50C, don't know if the heat has even peaked yet.


Originally Posted by: Col 


It is just incredible that a country like Canada, which is so often famed for its cold weather in winter can essentially record 50°C. Even casting aside global warming for a second, it just shows the sheer vastness of the country and just how remarkable and extreme the continental climate can be.


In six months time, that part of the world will be a good 70-80°C colder than it is today.


Scott
Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.
My weather station 
Jiries
30 June 2021 17:48:48


 


Lytton is at 225m above sea level so fairly high.


The diurnal variation in temperature has also been very high. Temperatures have fallen to just above 20C on each of the past few nights.


The diurnal variation for 29th June was 28.8C.


The latest overnight reading shows the 09z temperature was still at 29.3C. That is 2.2C above the reading for the same time yesterday.


Originally Posted by: Global Warming 


Make me wonder how the 53C heat in Death Valley managed to go very far north to Canada without slowly dropping temps as it goes north but remain strong all the way.  It around 2000 miles from Death Valley region to Canada.

Chunky Pea
30 June 2021 19:15:05


 


That is a statement on a par with 'dogs can bark'.


Originally Posted by: Devonian 


One of the warmest summer's on record in this part of the world (1976) occurred when the modern climate was in a cooler state, but how is this so? Could it been have been helped along in no small way by the preceding dry spring? (as you know, anomalously dry soils heat more quickly in the sun which thus helps to increase air temps more than the would normally)


Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 


"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Gandalf The White
30 June 2021 19:16:00


 


It is just incredible that a country like Canada, which is so often famed for its cold weather in winter can essentially record 50°C. Even casting aside global warming for a second, it just shows the sheer vastness of the country and just how remarkable and extreme the continental climate can be.


In six months time, that part of the world will be a good 70-80°C colder than it is today.


Originally Posted by: Bolty 


Actually it won’t: in late December it is likely to be about 50c colder, ie daytime max around 0c.


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Gandalf The White
30 June 2021 19:21:53


 


One of the warmest summer's on record in this part of the world (1976) occurred when the modern climate was in a cooler state, but how is this so? Could it been have been helped along in no small way by the preceding dry spring? (as you know, anomalously dry soils heat more quickly in the sun which thus helps to increase air temps more than the would normally)


Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 


The lack of rainfall was indeed acknowledged to be a factor. Obviously the extent and duration of the heat contributed to the very low soil moisture levels.


It’s worth noting that climate change is also predicted to bring more extreme rainfall and droughts - typically a function of blocked weather patterns in our latitude, where mobility tends to be the norm.


 


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Gandalf The White
30 June 2021 21:50:53


 


Make me wonder how the 53C heat in Death Valley managed to go very far north to Canada without slowly dropping temps as it goes north but remain strong all the way.  It around 2000 miles from Death Valley region to Canada.


Originally Posted by: Jiries 


The extreme heat over Oregon, Washington State and parts of western Canada is not related to, or linked with, the heat in Death Valley.


Almost reached 50c today. Quite unreal.


There are now concerns about how bad the forest fire season might be given the heat and drought.  There are also concerns about crop yields and, indeed. Whether some crops will even survive the exceptional, brutal heat.


A specialist from the Met Office says that their analysis shows that this level of heat simply wouldn't have been possible without the effects of higher concentrations of GHGs. 


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


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