Quantum
30 June 2021 16:23:41

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 


 


Is it? I would have though, given that June is, on average, the least humid of all the summer months, that 'dry heat', which builds quicker, and higher would be more the norm. For example, the all time highest temperature here in Ireland occurred in June 1887. 



Yeh I looked into this a few years back.


Excluding regions near the equator (which don't really have seasons like the rest of us), for the NHem July is the most common hottest month and the most common for heat records, August is not far behind though with plenty of all time records of its own. Beyond that you very occasionally see September and June but its really really rare.


 


Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Quantum
30 June 2021 16:27:21

Because of this single heatwave we now have a bunch of locations along the west coast all reporting June as their record breaking month.


Again I expect the number of locations like this on the entire planet has gone up more than 10 fold in the last week.


 


Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Devonian
30 June 2021 17:04:09

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 


 


Weather has always happened. 



That is a statement on a par with 'dogs can bark'.


"When it takes nearly 900,000 votes to elect one party’s MP, and just 26,000 for another, you know something is deeply wrong."

The electoral reform society, 14,12,19
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
30 June 2021 17:22:37
It’s all fairly uncontroversial I think. We know global temperatures have warmed by around 1-1.5C and continental mid latitude temperatures by 2-3C. We also know this was a freakish weather pattern and would have caused record threatening temperatures in the absence of climate change.

It was 49.6C yesterday in Lytton. All things being equal the same pattern might have given 47C a hundred years ago.

The only more complex bit is whether climate change makes the synoptic pattern itself more likely, or indeed preconditions for extreme heat (through greater évapotranspiration in the preceding weeks). The jury’s out on that stuff.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Bolty
30 June 2021 17:30:08

Originally Posted by: Col 


 


I was thinking about that. Not a great many countries will have ever recorded 50C. certainly not in Europe or even very close, think the record is around 48C. But now Canada has overtaken anywhere in Europe and I guess may even get 50C, don't know if the heat has even peaked yet.



It is just incredible that a country like Canada, which is so often famed for its cold weather in winter can essentially record 50°C. Even casting aside global warming for a second, it just shows the sheer vastness of the country and just how remarkable and extreme the continental climate can be.


In six months time, that part of the world will be a good 70-80°C colder than it is today.


Scott
Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.
My weather station 
Jiries
30 June 2021 17:48:48

Originally Posted by: Global Warming 


 


Lytton is at 225m above sea level so fairly high.


The diurnal variation in temperature has also been very high. Temperatures have fallen to just above 20C on each of the past few nights.


The diurnal variation for 29th June was 28.8C.


The latest overnight reading shows the 09z temperature was still at 29.3C. That is 2.2C above the reading for the same time yesterday.



Make me wonder how the 53C heat in Death Valley managed to go very far north to Canada without slowly dropping temps as it goes north but remain strong all the way.  It around 2000 miles from Death Valley region to Canada.

Chunky Pea
30 June 2021 19:15:05

Originally Posted by: Devonian 


 


That is a statement on a par with 'dogs can bark'.



One of the warmest summer's on record in this part of the world (1976) occurred when the modern climate was in a cooler state, but how is this so? Could it been have been helped along in no small way by the preceding dry spring? (as you know, anomalously dry soils heat more quickly in the sun which thus helps to increase air temps more than the would normally)


Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 


"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Gandalf The White
30 June 2021 19:16:00

Originally Posted by: Bolty 


 


It is just incredible that a country like Canada, which is so often famed for its cold weather in winter can essentially record 50°C. Even casting aside global warming for a second, it just shows the sheer vastness of the country and just how remarkable and extreme the continental climate can be.


In six months time, that part of the world will be a good 70-80°C colder than it is today.



Actually it won’t: in late December it is likely to be about 50c colder, ie daytime max around 0c.


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Gandalf The White
30 June 2021 19:21:53

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 


 


One of the warmest summer's on record in this part of the world (1976) occurred when the modern climate was in a cooler state, but how is this so? Could it been have been helped along in no small way by the preceding dry spring? (as you know, anomalously dry soils heat more quickly in the sun which thus helps to increase air temps more than the would normally)



The lack of rainfall was indeed acknowledged to be a factor. Obviously the extent and duration of the heat contributed to the very low soil moisture levels.


It’s worth noting that climate change is also predicted to bring more extreme rainfall and droughts - typically a function of blocked weather patterns in our latitude, where mobility tends to be the norm.


 


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Gandalf The White
30 June 2021 21:50:53

Originally Posted by: Jiries 


 


Make me wonder how the 53C heat in Death Valley managed to go very far north to Canada without slowly dropping temps as it goes north but remain strong all the way.  It around 2000 miles from Death Valley region to Canada.



The extreme heat over Oregon, Washington State and parts of western Canada is not related to, or linked with, the heat in Death Valley.


Almost reached 50c today. Quite unreal.


There are now concerns about how bad the forest fire season might be given the heat and drought.  There are also concerns about crop yields and, indeed. Whether some crops will even survive the exceptional, brutal heat.


A specialist from the Met Office says that their analysis shows that this level of heat simply wouldn't have been possible without the effects of higher concentrations of GHGs. 


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Charmhills
01 July 2021 08:50:22

Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 


 


May be an image of body of water and text that says 'CANADA Lytton, BC 49.6C 29 June 2021 GETTY'


 



Very impressive for so far north.


Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
springsunshine
01 July 2021 10:20:09

That level of heat is dangerous and life threatening. We might moan about the climate here in the uk but thank god its impossible to get those sort of temperatures here,i just can`t imagine what 50c would feel like and would never want to.

Gandalf The White
01 July 2021 12:16:55

Originally Posted by: Charmhills 


 


Very impressive for so far north.



I think a better word would be 'catastrophic' given that the area has now been engulfed by a forest fire as a direct consequence of the heat and drought.


I find these record breaking events are absolutely nothing to celebrate; quite the opposite.


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Jiries
01 July 2021 21:30:41

Originally Posted by: springsunshine 


That level of heat is dangerous and life threatening. We might moan about the climate here in the uk but thank god its impossible to get those sort of temperatures here,i just can`t imagine what 50c would feel like and would never want to.



I want to experience that as we have plans to go to Las Vegas in summer and take a tour bus from there to Furnace Creek to experience the heat and stand to take picture of the famous white temperature box station.  Someone stood next to it at 132F highest.

02 July 2021 04:07:23

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


 


I think a better word would be 'catastrophic' given that the area has now been engulfed by a forest fire as a direct consequence of the heat and drought.


I find these record breaking events are absolutely nothing to celebrate; quite the opposite.



It is heartbreaking to read about what has happened in Lytton. About 90% of the village has been destroyed by fire according to the local MP. Multiple injuries reported. These devastating fires are only going to keep increasing in frequency across the whole of the western side of the US and Canada, as temperatures continue to rise.

Jiries
02 July 2021 05:54:28

Originally Posted by: Global Warming 


 


It is heartbreaking to read about what has happened in Lytton. About 90% of the village has been destroyed by fire according to the local MP. Multiple injuries reported. These devastating fires are only going to keep increasing in frequency across the whole of the western side of the US and Canada, as temperatures continue to rise.



Looking at the forecast the heat won't move to Toronto area as it show rain and normal summery average temps there. Likely the heat will fizzle out eventually if not move east as cold weather does.  Meanwhile Cyprus will have a heatwave with forecast of 43-44C today so there lot of heat around but UK remain the coolest spot in NH.  It the matter of time UK have to get a much welcome and much needed heatwave with low 30's. days.  No heatwave this year as anything below 30C is not a heatwave but very warm spell. 

Charmhills
02 July 2021 09:19:09

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


 


I think a better word would be 'catastrophic' given that the area has now been engulfed by a forest fire as a direct consequence of the heat and drought.


I find these record breaking events are absolutely nothing to celebrate; quite the opposite.



Yes I'm aware of that but its still interesting from a weather perspective as this sort of heat doesn't happen in the Pacific NW very often.


Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
lanky
02 July 2021 17:05:58

Originally Posted by: Charmhills 


 


Yes I'm aware of that but its still interesting from a weather perspective as this sort of heat doesn't happen in the Pacific NW very often.



I took a look at the daily temperature records for the record-holding town (Lytton BC at 49.6C) and the nearby town of Merritt BC (max 46.0C) using the GHCN daily data from the 1960's, Merrtt has a continuous record from 1969 to 2019 but that for Lytton is split into several sites


What is interesting is that this period at the end of June for both sites is well off the hottest period of the year on average. They are both usually about 4C cooler now than between Mid July and Mid August so presumably if this synoptic pattern had occurred later in the year it could easily have topped 50C at Lytton at least


I tried to calcuate return periods for these temperatures on the basis that the daily history is a normal distribution (but it is hard to tell exactly)


By detrending the data I looked at both the return period now and what it would have been without Global Warming since the 1960's


For the current temperature regime the return period in the hottest period of the year is beteeen 130-150 years and without Global Warming it is 380-560 years


In this part if the world the hottest period has warmed by about 1.5C since 1969


For this to occur outside the hottest period of the year (as it has in this case) the return periods are 750-790 years and without warming 4600-15000 years


 


Martin
Richmond, Surrey
Jiries
02 July 2021 21:27:54

Originally Posted by: lanky 


 


I took a look at the daily temperature records for the record-holding town (Lytton BC at 49.6C) and the nearby town of Merritt BC (max 46.0C) using the GHCN daily data from the 1960's, Merrtt has a continuous record from 1969 to 2019 but that for Lytton is split into several sites


What is interesting is that this period at the end of June for both sites is well off the hottest period of the year on average. They are both usually about 4C cooler now than between Mid July and Mid August so presumably if this synoptic pattern had occurred later in the year it could easily have topped 50C at Lytton at least


I tried to calcuate return periods for these temperatures on the basis that the daily history is a normal distribution (but it is hard to tell exactly)


By detrending the data I looked at both the return period now and what it would have been without Global Warming since the 1960's


For the current temperature regime the return period in the hottest period of the year is beteeen 130-150 years and without Global Warming it is 380-560 years


In this part if the world the hottest period has warmed by about 1.5C since 1969


For this to occur outside the hottest period of the year (as it has in this case) the return periods are 750-790 years and without warming 4600-15000 years


 



What the hottest record for Lytton before? 


I know Toronto only mere 40.5C because it hard to get extreme hot due next to the cold Lake Ontario so any heat from the south have to cross over it like us in the English channel so that would modify the temps.  Lytton don't have any big lakes to reduce the temperatures.  Also the heatwave came in a right time just after the longest day so maybe Lytton might not reach 50C later if this heatwave come much later?  

ozone_aurora
02 July 2021 21:56:54

Could it be due to Fohn effects?

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