I see GFS and the other models have played their favourite game of swapsies this morning and we now have GFS settling things down nicely from Thursday onwards while GEM, ECMWF and UKMO bring in the dartboard southerly tracking lows, 2012 style.

Just as GFS was getting its act together too…

I side with GFS because now it almost 2 weeks of unsettled weather with jet way south to France now where the phantom LP sit.  Surely they need to move back north and well over due warm and settled weather must return while we still on prime high summer time now.  If other fools showing LP coming in they are fools anyway as it been wrong every single day on ground surface as I get is overcast skies, some rain and cold temperatures despite 1020mb HP over us.  Also very wrong to say weak lows because they re very powerful and damaging one than zonal LP cells.

it’s not ending soon for U.K. southerners Jires also signs of quite a deep lower pressure hitting the N/W with unsettled conditions later on.

also of very much interest  hopefully for members here is that I came across this the other day which hopefully will be of interest for weather folk and gives a basic insight of gfs for the next 10 days

http://wxmaps.org/animations.php

btw Thanks Dew as always 

 

 

I side with GFS because now it almost 2 weeks of unsettled weather with jet way south to France now where the phantom LP sit.  Surely they need to move back north and well over due warm and settled weather must return while we still on prime high summer time now.  If other fools showing LP coming in they are fools anyway as it been wrong every single day on ground surface as I get is overcast skies, some rain and cold temperatures despite 1020mb HP over us.  Also very wrong to say weak lows because they re very powerful and damaging one than zonal LP cells.

Looking at the ECM mean ,the Op is very much more unsettled.  So hope it's gone off on one this morning. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=1&run=0&time=240&lid=AVG&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref

 

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Looking at the ECM mean ,the Op is very much more unsettled.  So hope it's gone off on one this morning. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=1&run=0&time=240&lid=AVG&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref

 

That's the hope, but given other models are also pretty poor, I think ECM will be close to the mark.

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That's the hope, but given other models are also pretty poor, I think ECM will be close to the mark.

I think its a worse case scenario,  more likely low pressure ends up more to the NW.  

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I think its a worse case scenario,  more likely low pressure ends up more to the NW.  

Yes, but that's how Moomin forecasts the weather. Whatever model is showing the worst of conditions that's what he plumps for. 

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That's the hope, but given other models are also pretty poor, I think ECM will be close to the mark.

The GFS op run shows the next week (and beyond) as drier and warmer than average for about two thirds of the country.

Cue the dismissal of the output that doesn’t meet certain agendas.

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The GFS op run shows the next week (and beyond) as drier and warmer than average for about two thirds of the country.

Cue the dismissal of the output that doesn’t meet certain agendas.

I won't dismiss the GFS. Its a possibility, but given all the other models are more unsettled, I would think that is the favoured option at the moment.

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That's the hope, but given other models are also pretty poor, I think ECM will be close to the mark.

I disagree with this too. ECM is heavily outweighed by much warmer and settled output across the board. Sadly this has become the doom mongering thread since Spring.

I won't dismiss the GFS. Its a possibility, but given all the other models are more unsettled, I would think that is the favoured option at the moment.

The other models are slightly more unsettled but generally warmer and drier than average for many northern parts. Admittedly it looks more unsettled further south (but I did not suggest otherwise).

On the latest GFS op run so far (06z) the next week also looks reasonable for many areas. Largely warm and not overly wet away from some southern areas.

The ECM op, as has been mentioned, is in the minority this morning.

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The other models are slightly more unsettled but generally warmer and drier than average for many northern parts. Admittedly it looks more unsettled further south (but I did not suggest otherwise).

On the latest GFS op run so far (06z) the next week also looks reasonable for many areas. Largely warm and not overly wet away from some southern areas.

The ECM op, as has been mentioned, is in the minority this morning.

For many in the southern half of the UK, this looks pretty horrendous. Enjoy your summer you lucky northern people 🙃😊

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OK. For balance, this is 3 or maybe 4 GFS runs in a row now that are showing a significant improvement into July with a proper spell of nationwide dry and summery weather setting in, which will prove tough to shift.
Passing interest in this, given the consistency of the last few runs on GFS, but will need to see the other big 3, ECM, GEM and UKMO to start backing this up.

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Looks like GFS is starting to come to its senses with a generally unsettled average sort of pattern on the 12z more in line with the other models and the expectations of many on this forum.

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GFS 12z still isn’t that bad, and better than some of the other runs on offer.

Real uncertainty at the moment, once the rain fest of the next 3 days is done. Sometimes - like in April with the cold blocking, May with the southerly jet or early June with the warm zonality - you pretty much know where things are headed and it’s just about the details. But now we are unclear whether even next weekend will be warm and dry or the start of a 2012 apocalypse.

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Much better   ECM by the end its scorchio!

 

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Much better   ECM by the end its scorchio!

 

Still looks fairly poor to me until you get to the end of the run where there's a plume setting up, but unsettled before then.

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Much better   ECM by the end its scorchio!

 

that’s more like it

Good ECM.

Signal for a pattern change around 6 July.

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Good ECM.

Signal for a pattern change around 6 July.

Yeah I think there will be some type of pattern change around then and expecting a more mobile pattern to take hold, GEFS show a drop in pressure and 850s around then with more precipitation spikes.

 

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Yeah I think there will be some type of pattern change around then and expecting a more mobile pattern to take hold, GEFS show a drop in pressure and 850s around then with more precipitation spikes.

 

That’s too far away to be taken seriously or indeed for any level of forecasting reliability, but at least it is generally positive before then.

 

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