The extremely annoying GFS is sticking to its unsettled and cool guns again on the 6z. Let's hope it starts backing down soon. Pretty dreadful fare again from the US model.

Likely the model time settings is wrong as they think we are in Autumn to carry on this but I feel more confident other models pointing the right direction is correct due to the time of the year and expectance of summery charts must shown now.

"Britain to experience heatwave with 16 consecutive days of sunshine" says Daily Mirror. It's coming in June (apparently).

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"Britain to experience heatwave with 16 consecutive days of sunshine" says Daily Mirror. It's coming in June (apparently).

😅😅😅 Thats settled then. Expect floods and tornadoes and snow throughout June.

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Well if the lrf's in The Mirror are as useless as those in the Express, then yes, without a doubt.

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GFS 12z still pretty poor and GEM has backtracked to very unsettled tonight too. ECM please pull something out of the bag. This May will go down in history as one of the very worst.

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Pretty solid 12z from the ECM tonight into the mid term with HP building from the SW across all parts.
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU12_240_1.png 

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Pretty solid 12z from the ECM tonight into the mid term with HP building from the SW across all parts.
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU12_240_1.png

 

The signal continues. 

Fingers tightly crossed! 

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This mornings GFS now attempts to ridge in the Azores High and makes a reasonable attempt at doing so.
This time, GEM remains disturbed, cool and unsettled. Over to ECM again. This has a long way to run. Two steps forward, two back.

 

Edit: God, its like pulling teeth. ECM remains cool and unsettled after the promise of yesterday. Not looking great at all.

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16-dayer shows warmer weather creeping north in week 2, but still nowhere near Britain. Focus of rain, as yesterday, shifts from S UK and C Europe week 1 to N Uk and Scandi week 2

Jetstream much as yesterday, running S of UK week 1, moving N and flowing across UK from NW week 2, soem suggestion of weakening towards end of that week.

GFS cool with generally LP from Atlantic t start with but new feature of much deeper depression Fri 21st 975mb off N Ireland, moving Ewards across Uk and filling over the weekend. Then  a long period with HP on the Atlantic to Wed 2nd but with Britain just too far east to gain benefit, still more affected by LP over N Sea or Baltic and N-ly winds. If the HP were to settle a couple of hundred miles further east ...

GEFS cool and showery to Thu 27th, then the runs open up - the majority near norm but a significant number including control much warmer (i.e if that HP above settles further east). All runs becoming dry-ish after the 27th.

EcM similar to GFS but slots in another LP Tue 25th 1000mb Scotland before developing the Atlantic HP

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Bit of a mixed bag this morning,  GEFS look pretty good for a sustained pressure rise from about 25th. The Control run shows what could happen if we get lucky. ECM and GFS Ops both have  Scandi trough though so much cooler. 

So no smooth path to a flaming June but baby steps at least.

 

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Signal for high pressure to build west / northwest. Glasgow data table below suggests high pressure having more influence than in the south east, e.g. London which can be viewed from the link. 

 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/premium/gefs-tables.aspx?run=00&fv=MSLP&loc=London&lat=51.5&lon=0&p=&cty=

 

 

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Significant development on the 12z GFS with High pressure slipping in sooner than previously shown. Hopefully a new trend. Over to the GEM and ECM.

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Significant development on the 12z GFS with High pressure slipping in sooner than previously shown. Hopefully a new trend. Over to the GEM and ECM.

Indeed… and GEM backs it!

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Looks like there should finally be a better spell of weather to come next week, how long it lasts though remains to be seen...

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Yep ECM backs GFS and GEM.

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Yep ECM backs GFS and GEM.

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Another stonker in the mid term from ECM 🙂

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16-dayer shows the Atlantic trying to push some warmth towards the UK in week 2 but at that stage only as far as France - but the cold 'bulge' has at least moved off to the east affecting Baltic state, Belarus and even down as far as Turkey. Rain in week 1 generally in Britain and across to N Europe, then drier here week 2 while new band sets up across Biscay to Alps.

GFS - the current diffuse area of LP over the UK becomes focused Fri 21st 985 mb N Ireland, slowly filling and moving NE, with a W-ly pattern until Thu 27th when the forecast HP from the Atlantic moves in after a short back-edge blast from the N. Today's version of the HP (unlike yesterday's, so not nailed on) shows it 1040mb centred NW Britain Sat 29th,some cooler E-lies for the S, eventually declining and moving to a 'normal' summer pattern with HP across the S of the UK and increasing W-ly influence further N by Thu 3rd.

GEFS remaining cool in most runs to Thu 27th when divergence sets in but with an increased proportion of warmer runs compared to yesterday raising the mean to  seasonal norm (op run is pessimistic for a few days longer). Generally drying up after 27th but still a few runs showing showers, more so in N. 

ECM similar to GFS but Friday's low takes longer to clear, still affecting UK Mon 25th, but HP in place Fri 28th albeit with more of a NE-ly for the S.

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Now looking like the high pressure next week will be likely more to the NW of us rather than centred over us, so will probably stay cool but at least it should be mostly dry.

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GFS seems to be backtracking, delaying HP arrival*. If one can forecast by backtracking charts, then fine, settled weather probably won't arrive. 


*btw, I'm using https://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/panels.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&lid=OP.