This weekend looks terrible and continuing next week too for London and the southern England. What a terrible spring this has turned out to be and once again a forecast of a cold plunge. Hopefully June may show an improvement?

This weekend looks terrible and continuing next week too for London and the southern England. What a terrible spring this has turned out to be and once again a forecast of a cold plunge. Hopefully June may show an improvement?

Yep, and after a fleeting glimpse of spring on the pub run last night, its once again back to square one, and then some, with a truly horrendous 0z GFS. This relentless run of cold and unsettled weather is not likely to end any time soon.

I fear for summer, and nothing I've seen changes my opinions.

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For whatever reason we cant get rid of the northern blocking.  Until that happens its going to be a struggle to get warm sunny conditions.  When it happens the Azores high has a good chance to move over us. Maybe in 10 to 15  days if we are lucky.

 

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For whatever reason we cant get rid of the northern blocking.  Until that happens its going to be a struggle to get warm sunny conditions.  When it happens the Azores high has a good chance to move over us. Maybe in 10 to 15  days if we are lucky.

 

I agree, this is the best we can hope. We can now very safely write off May and indeed write off spring as one of the worst we have seen.

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Credit to ECM for picking up the northerly at this time yesterday, while on GFS it was no more than a hint of what is now predicted, though curiously it is now GFS most keenly promoting it.

 

16-dayer: still that bulge of cold air holding over W Europe (the 'blues' are even back over the Alps in week 2; fresh powder skiing if it wasn't for Covid!) while serious heat ramps up E of the Black Sea and advecting N-wards. Those looking for serious warmth in the Med will be disappointed but Portugal, esp in the S, offers a chance of hot weather. Rain over UK and NW Europe in week 1 moves into C Europe week 2, but still not completely drying up here, contrary to earlier dry forecasts.

GFS: continues with the theme of LPs crossing the UK implying damp and showery weather, and aligning themselves to draw down N-lies repeatedly on the back edge (though not as dramatic as some of the posts above) but disappointingly not to bring up any warm air on the leading edge. The following centres are noted with the common theme as above; Sun 16th 995mb S Ireland; Fri 21st 1000mb E Anglia (this one sticks around and brings a steady N-ly with the help of C Atlantic HP); Thu 27th 1000 mb E Scotland. No sign of HP across the UK as shown yesterday which got our optimists' juices flowing.

GEFS: continuing below norm throughout, with only a few runs breaking ranks and showing improvement after Sat 29th. Typically 2-6C below in S (coolest around Tue 25th and this includes op & control, perhaps as much as 10C below on E  coast!), less extreme in Scotland, closer to but not above norm for the most part, and the cold patch 'only' 3-4C below norm at that date. A showery pattern of rain persists, if anything most showers around Fri 21st, fewer later on.

ECM: follows GFS though LPs are less well defined, and pressure is just generally low continuously

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You've been incredibly lucky. Every evening this week has been deluged (apart from 10C breezy cloudy tonight)

Decent mornings but dross apart from that.
Nothing 'usable' at all.

Makes a nice change.

We’ve had the fairly usable pattern of - beautiful morning, clouds bubble up by mid morning, a few showers late afternoon, then a dry and pleasant evening. Averageish temps. 

I’ve managed a lunchtime walk every day and we had a meal and drinks out Thursday night , completely dry. 

As for this morning’s models - yet more HLB as far as the eye can see. In fact a classic “Griceland” High could be on the cards. What a winter spell this could have been! 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU00_240_1.png 

 

 

 

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I agree, this is the best we can hope. We can now very safely write off May and indeed write off spring as one of the worst we have seen.

In your neck of the woods perhaps, Kieran. Cool temperatures aside, it has actually been a decent spring where I live and there has been a more than decent amount of sun too. OK it hasn't matched many recent springs when it comes to warm weather, but I have seen much worse than this in the past.

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In your neck of the woods perhaps, Kieran. Cool temperatures aside, it has actually been a decent spring where I live and there has been a more than decent amount of sun too. OK it hasn't matched many recent springs when it comes to warm weather, but I have seen much worse than this in the past.

So far here Spring has been-

March - Non descript , Mild

April - cold , very dry

May - chilly,  wet.

 

 I think for the cold weather to last into June/July we'd have to be very unlucky.  When was the last time we had 4 colder than average months in a row?

 

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For whatever reason we cant get rid of the northern blocking.  Until that happens its going to be a struggle to get warm sunny conditions.  When it happens the Azores high has a good chance to move over us. Maybe in 10 to 15  days if we are lucky.

 

Surely it have to end at some point as it been now nearly 2 months and down to just less than 5 weeks for longest day.  Surely the HP over north have to end as HP normally reside more further south than north?   Heating had been on every single day in May and never use heating this month only once or twice in the past but not continuedly.

 

Seasonals have been strongly signalling warmer than average temps this summer. In fact the risk of problematic heatwaves is considered much higher than normal according to some.

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Seasonals have been strongly signalling warmer than average temps this summer. In fact the risk of problematic heatwaves is considered much higher than normal according to some.

Do you know if the same sources indicated the current and recent cold than average temperatures?

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Starting to feel a bit like covid, this spell of cold. Every time you think the end may be near, and the GH is on the run, some new variant pops up in the charts and condemns us to a few more weeks indoors.

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Glimmer of hope from the ECM mean this morning very strong signal for high pressure  in the 8 -10 day period. Lower pressure over Greenland as well.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=1&run=0&time=240&lid=AVG&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref

 

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I know that the GFS 0Z ops run is at the lower end of the ENS but that has to be the worst run I've ever seen for late May. Any hope of a Bank Holiday weekend redemption seems to be fading fast. Truly depressing.

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The last 2 days have been horrendous here. Cold, concrete skies and varying amounts of rain. Max temp today 10.9C so far and 12.2C yesterday. 

Cold & dull in Sheffield too. What a miserable climate! 

Cold & dull in Sheffield too. What a miserable climate! 

Already the wettest May I have experienced since I started taking measurements in 2000. 101mm now this month and still 16 days to do. Simply abysmal.

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Do you know if the same sources indicated the current and recent cold than average temperatures?

Most went average or above average. JMA had no bias towards a particular outcome. Therefore, I would say they have been poor for the UK. As ever it is difficult to be as confident about the bigger picture. For example, I can't easily say how accurate they were for Germany, let alone somewhere further afield. 

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Most went average or above average. JMA had no bias towards a particular outcome. Therefore, I would say they have been poor for the UK. As ever it is difficult to be as confident about the bigger picture. For example, I can't easily say how accurate they were for Germany, let alone somewhere further afield. 

Thanks Brian. 

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Glimmer of hope from the ECM mean this morning very strong signal for high pressure  in the 8 -10 day period. Lower pressure over Greenland as well.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=1&run=0&time=240&lid=AVG&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref

 

 

This signal has been there for a while now. Sometimes GFS picks it up, then drops it, then picks it up again. ECM has it this morning. Whether it occurs remains to be seen, but the signal has been there for a few days now.

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https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMAVGEU00_240_34.png 

Having said that the t850s may not be that important in terms of how things feel if we get high pressure and sunshine.

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