16-dayer even in week 2 still showing bulge of cool weather from Uk across to Poland even while Spain and E Russia heat up (Poland and Germany look well below average). Rainfall for UK week 1 after which it moves off E-wards
GFS - current LP slowly filling for the rest of this week, new LP then moving in from Atlantic 995 mb N Ireland Mon 17th drifting across UK to Baltic Thu 20th. HP with brief warmth from the south Sat 22nd (APS is definitely an optimist!) but even this tussling with the Atlantic which tries to displace the warmth with a w-ly flow from LPs 975mb Rockall Mon 24th and N Ireland Thu 27th.
GEFS - mean temps close to or a little below norm to Thu 27th, good agreement to Sat 22nd after which warm outliers (op run) and cold outliers (control run) both appear, variation greatest in the S. Showery pattern of rain throughout
ECM - like GFS but places the small LP Mon 17th over England, but then a deeper LP Fri 21st 990mb Western Isles. No sign of any high pressure developing.
Edited by user
11 May 2021 07:29:34
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Reason: Not specified
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Chichester 12m asl