16-dayer showing W Europe generally below seasonal norm for next two weeks while C/E Europe is above. BBC last night suggested some mitigation as the strongest N-lies moved away to the east while some marginally less cold air worked in from the NW. Rainfall pattern (not excluding hill snow) is for pptn over N Scotland week 1, continuing there and a new area of rain over S England/France week 2.
GFS - consistently holding to a two-stage drop in temp; HP over Ireland keeping N-lies weak until Mon 5th when the HP moves away to W allowing Arctic blast under control of LP over Norway. Although that fills, a new LP develops in the N-ly flow to sit over the Scottish borders 985mb by Sat 10th affecting all of Britain. That disappears almost as quickly as it arrived and HP moves in from the S to be centred over Ireland 1035mb Thu 15th with accompanying plume of warm air. But at end of run Sat 17th the chart is suspiciously like that for Sat 3rd - a repeat performance possible?
GEFS - good agreement on a two-stage dip in temp as above, lowest around 10C below norm on Tue 6th, after which a less agreed-on recovery to a little below norm Mon 12th after which no confidence in any outcome. Small amounts of pptn from Mon 5th onwards, rain in the S (maybe even a sprinkling of snow on Tue), snow likely for most of the week the 5th in Scotland. The reload on Sat 10th in GFS shows up in the op and control if you look hard, but not in many other runs.
ECM - like GFS at first; at time of posting only the 12z from yesterday available after T+144 but that also suggests a new LP developing in the N-ly flow, however a day or two earlier than GFS
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Chichester 12m asl