A more westerly 12Z GFS but actually a bit colder than the 6Z.

More Greenland less arctic influence.

 

Getting the cold with a bit of a westerly component would be good - get decent snowfall at Glencoe hopefully which looks like the only realistic chance of lift served turns again this season, even after the biblical rainfall of the past few days. Now back below freezing on the mountain, so the old snow will be glacial. Apologies for typos, for some reason I can not see what I am typing but. the word count is going up! 

16-dayer showing W Europe generally below seasonal norm for next two weeks while C/E Europe is above. BBC last night suggested some mitigation as the strongest N-lies moved away to the east while some marginally less cold air worked in from the NW. Rainfall pattern (not excluding hill snow) is for pptn over N Scotland week 1, continuing there and a new area of rain over S England/France week 2.

GFS - consistently holding to a two-stage drop in temp; HP over Ireland keeping N-lies weak until Mon 5th when the HP moves away to W allowing Arctic blast under control of LP over Norway. Although that fills, a new LP develops in the N-ly flow to sit over the Scottish borders 985mb by Sat 10th affecting all of Britain. That disappears almost as quickly as it arrived and HP moves in from the S to be centred over Ireland 1035mb Thu 15th with accompanying plume of warm air. But at end of run Sat 17th the chart is suspiciously like that for Sat 3rd - a repeat performance possible?

GEFS - good agreement on a two-stage dip in temp as above, lowest around 10C below norm on Tue 6th, after which a less agreed-on recovery to a little below norm Mon 12th after which no confidence in any outcome. Small amounts of pptn from Mon 5th onwards, rain in the S (maybe even a sprinkling of snow on Tue), snow likely for most of the week the 5th in Scotland. The reload on Sat 10th in GFS shows up in the op and control  if you look hard, but not in many other runs.

ECM - like GFS at first; at time of posting only the 12z from yesterday available after T+144 but that also suggests a new LP developing in the N-ly flow, however a day or two earlier than GFS

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It does look like a cold start to April with perhaps significant snow for Scottish hills. But realistically it's just nuisance value everywhere else. Temps between 6c and 9c isnt very exciting from a cold perspective. 

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Bbc last night had a chilly day Monday 8 degrees in the South thereafter back to double figures in the South colder in the North . Nothing remarkable for April.

a few insane ens members still at such close range. 

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Bbc last night had a chilly day Monday 8 degrees in the South thereafter back to double figures in the South colder in the North . Nothing remarkable for April.

The BBC forecast for Monday and Tuesday is a max of 2°C with snow showers. Noteworthy for April, albeit not unprecedented. Probably about the equivalent of highs of 20°C or so for warmth. 

This t850hPa deviation chart from the ECM 00z shows the level of the cold:

By the nature of northerlies, I suspect some in the south may barely notice beyond “it’s a bit cool in the shade/wind” (unless they get hit by a shower).

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It does look like a cold start to April with perhaps significant snow for Scottish hills. But realistically it's just nuisance value everywhere else. Temps between 6c and 9c isnt very exciting from a cold perspective. 

You rarely see significant snow down here in April apart from transient heavy showers. The 2008 event was the last I saw here although some got some action back in 2013.

The interesting thing will be potent convection given the steep lapse rates early next week. I will be deeply disappointed if I don't see snow/hail and even thunder as things respond to daytime heating 

 

You rarely see significant snow down here in April apart from transient heavy showers. The 2008 event was the last I saw here although some got some action back in 2013.

The interesting thing will be potent convection given the steep lapse rates early next week. I will be deeply disappointed if I don't see snow/hail and even thunder as things respond to daytime heating 

Yes hopefully the showers should be potent . Nothing that unusual for early April though for the southern third of the UK at least. 

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ICON6Z briefly manages -12C T850 in the Midlands with the -10C line getting to the south coast. Edit: a pixel of -12C also manages to get to London in the next chart.

 

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second push of the deep cold 

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Remember that dismall period in December where we had the right synoptics but couldn't get the deep cold! You can't make this up.

 

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You rarely see significant snow down here in April apart from transient heavy showers. The 2008 event was the last I saw here although some got some action back in 2013.

The interesting thing will be potent convection given the steep lapse rates early next week. I will be deeply disappointed if I don't see snow/hail and even thunder as things respond to daytime heating 

Yes, it seems that the start of April allows snow to fall at the highest air temperatures but it settles the least. I think it must be something to do with those rainbows ;-)

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In the depths of winter when these charts are modelled, you can virtually always guarantee that all sorts of shortwave features will scupper the cold spell or the main blast will trend further East leaving us with nothing.
Sod's law dictates that now, in midst of spring with all the flora and fauna blossoming and growing, that this blast, rather then trending away from us, has been rock solid for well over a week, and will cause untold damage to tender plants and some young animals. You couldn't make it up. Not wanted as far as I'm concerned.

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Snow rare in April? 1966 I got stuck in snow on Portsdown Hill (above Portsmouth) on I think April 22nd. Had to wait for the snowplough. This after an Easter weekend warm enough to be dinghy sailing in Poole Harbour in shorts!

Meanwhile, Southend had no snow at all.

Not to dissimilar to this year in fact - albeit a couple of weeks later.

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April 8th 2008 around 7am started to snow heavily dumping around 5 inches by 9am.. Then the sun came out and it was all gone by midday.

 

By the nature of northerlies, I suspect some in the south may barely notice beyond “it’s a bit cool in the shade/wind” (unless they get hit by a shower).

We might get a touch of frost to ;) 

Still some extreme members showing up

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Still some extreme members showing up

 

-20. Hello there my old friend.

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Snow rare in April? 1966 I got stuck in snow on Portsdown Hill (above Portsmouth) on I think April 22nd. Had to wait for the snowplough. This after an Easter weekend warm enough to be dinghy sailing in Poole Harbour in shorts!

Meanwhile, Southend had no snow at all.

Not to dissimilar to this year in fact - albeit a couple of weeks later.

Statistically it snows more often at Easter than Christmas and even late Easters are not safe.

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Statistically it snows more often at Easter than Christmas and even late Easters are not safe.

I've always said that if we could swap Christmas and Easter around then we'd stand a better chance of experiencing white Christmases. 

It is looking likely that there'll be some back edge snow as the rain belt associated with the cold front move southwards over the UK on Easter Monday, to be followed by scattered wintry showers and hard & widespread night frosts for the next couple of days. 

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