Isn't this just sodding typical of this country. In December to February, these charts will downgrade, but you just know these will continue to ramp up cold to delivery a thoroughly miserable Easter.

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This one is fairly funny. Even in April that would give an ice day to many northern parts.

 

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Isn't this just sodding typical of this country. In December to February, these charts will downgrade, but you just know these will continue to ramp up cold to delivery a thoroughly miserable Easter.

 

I haven't seen the GFS for a while now as I am in spring mode and especially after that failed easterly back in February after the models showed so much potential but delivered little I lost interest.

I do occasionally check this forum and had a quick look at GFS. I can't find the parallel run. So I assume it's been taken down or heard rumours the operational is the new parallel? Anyway. I agree with you. It's sods law we get a prior northerly over Easter....just wish these charts occurred in the winter months. I bet this colder spell will get upgraded as well. Just when we don't want cold weather. But on the flip side this use to be quite normal I remember in the 00s and 90s we had snow over Easter. I remember April 1998/April 1999 very well and also the snowfall in early April 2008 during the Olympic torch run in London. It is fair to say that have perhaps been spoilt with warm springs over the recent years.

Back to the models (if they verify!) Having seen the ENS - we could be in for a long cold spell early April which will be a shock to wildlife after potential of reaching 20c Wednesday. 

I just wish we could see charts like this in the winter but NO they get downgraded of course. 🙄

 

 

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HERE'S WINTER!!!!!!!

H

 

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16-dayer showing a resurgence of cold air over Scandi and to a lesser extent over UK in week 2, and main rain area as yesterday transferring from N of UK to S of it.

GFS - troughs moving through ATM but massive bulge of HP, a plume even, by Tue 30th 1035mb N France, but just as quickly slips away to mid Atlantic ushering in N-lies by Thu 1st, weak at first and converting to E-lies Sun 4th as pressure drops over France and then some colder NE-lies Wed 7th (not a N-ly as yesterday). The direct feed drops off but cold air remains over UK as LPs move in from the Atlantic and sit off Cornwall from Sat 10th. The deep Lp over Scandi is in place from Wed 7th and still a possible menace through to Mon 12th.

GEFS - for the S - ridiculously mild ca Tue 30th followed by a drop >15C overnight and then consistently cold (ca 5C below norm) through to Sun 11th - and good agreement, too. Small amounts of rain from time to time. Similar in Scotland, a little less consistent and rather more rain - or maybe snow, the snow row figures even for Edinburgh are high teens for a week or so either side of Thu 8th.

ECM - Similar to GFS up to Sun 4th, but then sticking with the original and very cold direct N-ly Mon 5th which persists.

Note: clocks go forward tonight so owing to domestic circumstances I may not always be able to wait for ECM 00z to load when posting this review, for the period of BST (ECM 00z appears in stages, & doesn't finish before 0700 GMT)

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Rather extreme for April I would have thought:

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Rather extreme for April I would have thought:

Yes - and as Moomin said - imagine that sort of set up occurring in Dec, Jan, Feb!?

I can't remember the last time we saw uppers of -10c covering a large part if not the whole country in April.

I do  remember the weekend 2nd week of April 1998 I think it was 9th-12th April 1998 when a low pressure system came in and dumped 2-3" of heavy wet snow in many south western areas - although melted within a day it was memorable: but even during that cold blast in April we never saw such cold uppers of -10c covering most of or the whole of the country: - Here is the chart 09th April 1998 - I picked at random between that time and it was memorable:

 

 

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A stunning chart for sure 

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Going off the 06Z, this could be one of the coldest first weeks of April in a good few number of years. I can't say I've ever seen charts that extreme at this time of year before - they are proper midwinter charts, not mid-spring charts. It's also been a while since I've seen a cold spell modelled from so far out.

We are due quite a cold April though, unfortunately. We've been spoilt with warm and sunny Aprils in recent years, so I suppose we can't moan that a cold one is potentially looking on the cards this year.

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A general rule of thumb is that -14C at the T850 level guarantees an ice day regardless of the time of year.

For the extreme north we arn't that far off.

 

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Christ on a bike some of these solutions are insane.

This would be a near record breaking northerly even in the heart of winter. In April I have no doubt this is a record breaker.

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Here's another one with the -20 T850 line nearly touching shetland.

 

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ANOTHER one with the -20C line near shetland and the -18C line to the south of it

 

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This is beyond insane. Maxima quite widely below 0C in northern England and below -2C in the far north of Scotland.

This would easily smash the April minimax record and amazingly it does it without frontal precipitation.

 

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A stunning chart for sure 

Yes remarkable - however we have been spoilt by the warmer than average springs/April in particular over the past few years as Bloty agreed too.

I remember April 1996, April 1997, April 1998, April 1999 and April 2000 all delivered a northerly and snow and April 2008 and April 2009 as well as April 2010 delivered snow too. Since then Aprils have largely been above average and drier than average.

9th April 1998

13th April 1999:

13th April 2000:

6th April 2008: - I remember this as there was snow in the capital during the Olympic Torch rally in London - can anyone else remember this? Below was the weather pattern. 2cm's of snow fell on the capital early hours of Sunday 6th April.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/archive/2008/noaa/NOAA_1_2008040606_1.png

The most closely matched similar pattern/set up to the one we may get next weekend (as the computer models are showing) is that of April 2008 in terms of where the blocking sits and that's if it verifies of course.

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Couple of observations: first, if the cold plunge in the week after Easter happens as modelled then most of the French, German, Swiss and North Italian (and possibly Spanish) wine industry is facing another year of massive frost damage. Budburst has already happened in most regions South of Champagne and the modelled minima - let alone those in frost pockets - are hitting -4 or -5C in a number of wine regions: Burgundy and Beaujolais, Jura, Northern Rhone, Valais and Vaud, Alsace, Mosel and Rheingau, Piedmont, with less severe but still pretty bad frost around -2 to -3C in Provence and Languedoc, much of the Loire and Bordeaux. The crop in the midi could be decimated. 

Champagne and the English vineyards may be spared as budburst has been quite late because of the snow in Feb and the cold March. Still likely to be some damage though. 

Second, a few ensemble members are now avoiding the cold plunge altogether. I'm not sure it's yet 100% nailed on. Just needs the warmth to cling on a bit longer next week and then for the Northerly to topple in TWO fashion, and we end up with cool and frosty but unremarkable high pressure. It's more of a Northerly in the models now, rather than an Easterly, and they tend to be a bit less predictable in my experience.

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Couple of observations: first, if the cold plunge in the week after Easter happens as modelled then most of the French, German, Swiss and North Italian (and possibly Spanish) wine industry is facing another year of massive frost damage. Budburst has already happened in most regions South of Champagne and the modelled minima - let alone those in frost pockets - are hitting -4 or -5C in a number of wine regions: Burgundy and Beaujolais, Jura, Northern Rhone, Valais and Vaud, Alsace, Mosel and Rheingau, Piedmont, with less severe but still pretty bad frost around -2 to -3C in Provence and Languedoc, much of the Loire and Bordeaux. The crop in the midi could be decimated. 

Champagne and the English vineyards may be spared as budburst has been quite late because of the snow in Feb and the cold March. Still likely to be some damage though. 

Second, a few ensemble members are now avoiding the cold plunge altogether. I'm not sure it's yet 100% nailed on. Just needs the warmth to cling on a bit longer next week and then for the Northerly to topple in TWO fashion, and we end up with cool and frosty but unremarkable high pressure. It's more of a Northerly in the models now, rather than an Easterly, and they tend to be a bit less predictable in my experience.

If this cold spell verifies as it's been implied then this could cause some serious damage - That's the last thing anyone needs what with the Coronavirus Pandemic.

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If this cold spell verifies as it's been implied then this could cause some serious damage - That's the last thing anyone needs what with the Coronavirus Pandemic.

You just know that it will verify almost 100%!

Why? Because noone really wants this and the law of sod will dictate that unlike in winter, these charts will be spot on. 

They look absolutely terrible for April and a lot of wildlife will be affected, not to mention the flora and fauna that will be damaged or destroyed.

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It is highly unlikely to verify as shown in the GFS 06z op run but for information the 500-1000hPa thickness here at 228hr was a remarkable 507dam!

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It is highly unlikely to verify as shown in the GFS 06z op run but for information the 500-1000hPa thickness here at 228hr was a remarkable 507dam!

That is truly unbelievable. I guess if it's going to hit us, it may as well be record breaking. Personally I want this like a bullet in the head, but what will be will be.

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