Pub run tonight and tomorrow am charts will hopefully clarify the situation.

Big upgrade on the ICON.

Doesn't get there but the ICON12z was the worst of the bunch.

I'm looking for four small improvements:

a) Higher heights to the north around Iceland

b) Stronger trough disruption into the Med

c) More southward penetration of cold core low in E europe

d) More negitive tilt on approaching depression.

ICON18Z only improves a) with b-d being the same.

If we can improve all of them just slightly it would be enough even at this range.

Atlantic coming through on the 18z.

Following a crap Icon, the 18z GFS now turns the weekend's potential snowy breakdown into a complete bust for England (apart from perhaps the far north and with altitude)

Saturday's front fizzles over Wales, but topples the block enough so that Sunday's front bumps into less cold air. The result is brief wet snow from N Mids northwards, quickly turning to sleet then rain.

Typical. 

That was our last chance at snow in an otherwise shite cold snap. 

GFSP although marginally worse than the GFSP12Z is still going to get there.

And ICON18z is a big upgrade (despite not getting there) while GFS/GFSP are downgrade and slight downgrade respectively.

It takes a tiny tiny change to improve things.

I don't think we have this sorted yet.

The overriding theme over the last 48 hours has been for all models to show a mild break at the weekend.

There have been occasional delays in this, mainly from the GFS but 18z does push the Atlantic through

GEM / ECM been more consistent on the breakdown over last 48 hours. GFS follows FOR NOW

Block looks to sit over Central Europe which allows a milder flow to establish

Things may change of course

However a severe spell like we’re experiencing now would be unlikely again this winter.

March has done well for cold in the last 15 years but it’s been a cold winter so maybe spring will make an appearance. I’m not aware of many cold winters that also have cold springs or March?

To get 1 average month and 2 below average months this winter was not expected

The GFSP taken completely literally never gets mild for central and eastern areas.

And yes its a new model though its due to go live in a week. Perhaps it sees something the other's don't.

Would these type of synoptics produced something much more severe in decades past, I wonder ?

Maybe 

it’s not a foregone thing that mild will win out but it looks more to me that it will end less cold as opposed to establishing more deep cold 

Cant name them, but many a winter within the CET record lasted for 4 or 5 months. Not something in the modern era mind.

More severe weather in recent decades...hard one to say. By UK standards this winter will potentially end up pretty cold if the low temps this week hit the CET hard. Agreed some of the cold spells have been muted and could have been severe for only minor fractions but I would say most winters we just miss out or are unfortunate. However that’s more down to our geographical position than “past decades”

Severe spells happen each decade. Even the 90s had severe spells and I thought the 90s were all mild when you hear people talk. Feb 91 and 96 was colder than this Feb or if anything this Feb may get close to 91/96

Keep fighting the fight, but I'm 80/20 in favour of a breakdown. For how long is the key imo.

March 05, 13, 18 is pretty good for a spring month. 13 consecutive days of snow in March 05 which broke the 62 record 

I thought it wasn’t replacing the current GFS until mid March at the earliest?

There was talk of it not going live at all. 

But were any of them following a 3 month cold winter? Sometimes even November was cold, cold enough to to rival some of our current winter months. Sometimes also followed by a cold March.

It isn't over until all the ensembles show it.

18Z suite seems to be an upgrade over the 12Z despite the OP being a downgrade.

GEFS members of note. By 144.

P1: Mild air does not make it. Surface cold with a SErly

P3: Some trough disruption with a cold SErly lingering in the E.

P6: Bitterly deep cold. -12C uppers

P8: Very close like P3. Slightly worse.

P13: Very cold at surface. Cold uppers returning in SE. This run looks like it will be insanely cold later (even colder than P6).

P18: Surface cold SErlies. Trough disruption. Mild air does not make it

P20: More surface cold and SErlies. Cold air to stay

P21: Similar but a bit worse to the above. Cold just hanging on

P24: As above but better this time.

P26: Again but more like P21

P27: Cold uppers returning. Like P13 but a bit delayed. Very promising later on.

P30: Another P20 type run.

I mean that's more than 1/3....

https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfsp/runs/2021021018/gfs-0-144.png?18 

Lovely Springlike run from the GFS this morning. 

Yes. Perfect gardening weather down here by the looks of it. If the ground can dry out