GFS op run has eastern promise at the end, who knows if Feb will deliver

Yes, always the tease at the end to keep us hanging. Would like to see it coming forward 24 hours each day though instead of always being at 384!

Is that so? That's surprising as the Meteociel ppn charts appear much more detailed with the parallel run. Maybe they are interpolating somehow.

I think the GFS chart you posted was plotted using the low resolution 1.0 degree data sets. It will make the snow and rain areas look bigger.

 

I think the GFS chart you posted was plotted using the low resolution 1.0 degree data sets. It will make the snow and rain areas look bigger.

The individual areas on the snow depth charts are much smaller and smoother on the parallel, though. On the older GFS they are larger and more blocky, suggesting lower resolution: you can see the individual squares where there are small patches, almost like a mosaic effect. Maybe it's just an artifact of the way they are smoothed but the GFSP snow depth charts certainly give the impression of being much more detailed.

 

The individual areas on the snow depth charts are much smaller and smoother on the parallel, though. On the older GFS they are larger and more blocky, suggesting lower resolution: you can see the individual squares where there are small patches, almost like a mosaic effect. Maybe it's just an artifact of the way they are smoothed but the GFSP snow depth charts certainly give the impression of being much more detailed.

TBH I think it is an artefact of the data set. It's actually very ease to cheat if you want to make the charts look smoother and more detailed. You can simply regrid the data set to a much higher resolution. It's like a professional foul in football or a trick of the trade depending on how you view it. I don't do that on TWO and the Mciel charts you posted are labelled as 1 degree so they aren't doing it either.  

Edit: If I get bored later this week I'll try and regrid a GFS plot to a very high resolution to illustrate

 

Yes, always the tease at the end to keep us hanging. Would like to see it coming forward 24 hours each day though instead of always being at 384!

yes with some good Synoptics in the right place the high over Europe has scuppered as usual

I don't know, but the ones posted from here (the snow depth used above) are clearly labelled as 1 degree. 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=16

Perturbation 9 please ....... JFF....WNH

The 6Z GEFS is noticeably colder (for London) in the upcoming cool/cold spell, with the mean now dropping to -6C around the 24th and some runs not far off the -10C line.

The op run is fairly representative of the mean for much of the run, for once, while the control run is on the mild side.

Again, a general dip towards the end of the run, with a few going quite cold (and one proper freeze-up)

CFS monthly anomaly charts going for a roughly average Feb but a rather cold March, with heights over Greenland dominant.

Meteociel - Modèle Numérique américain CFS (par mois)

The long range CFS model has plenty of eye candy from mid Feb onwards though. Only 654 hours out so probably just about nailed on I would say. 

CFS monthly anomaly charts going for a roughly average Feb but a rather cold March, with heights over Greenland dominant.

 

The long range CFS model has plenty of eye candy from mid Feb onwards though. Only 654 hours out so probably just about nailed on I would say. 

 

Pfff....There’s too much involving winds sourced from the Sahara with that! 

Ok.... can someone please tell me why I can never post links in any of the forums here?

I couldn’t post any links myself. It gets reported as spam.

even now when I quoted another persons post in my reply it got rejected as spam.

only when I removed the link from his post did it get accepted.

many thanks in advance from a forum noob

Deleted - duplicate post

The latest ECM ensemble run for 10hPa suggests the chance of another wind reversal at the end of the month:

CFS monthly anomaly charts going for a roughly average Feb but a rather cold March, with heights over Greenland dominant.

Meteociel - Modèle Numérique américain CFS (par mois)

 

The long range CFS model has plenty of eye candy from mid Feb onwards though. Only 654 hours out so probably just about nailed on I would say. 

 

Wouldn't this be the sort of timescale where we should see the effects of this month's sudden stratospheric warming propagating down to these charts?

I'd always had it in mind that you need to wait 6 weeks to see the effects of a SSW, but this one seems to have been written off after a fortnight for some reason.

 

 

Pfff....There’s too much involving winds sourced from the Sahara with that! 

With the snow that southern Europe has had - yes i include Spain and southern Italy, Greece and of course north Africa including Sahara desert then maybe that's where we would want the wind direction coming from. 

Talking of Feb 1978, there was a situation earlier during that January that produced a blizzard in Scotland.  It was synoptically not a million miles  away from that presented by this week's storm.  That particular storm moved slowly into the North Sea producing similar conditions on its northwest flank to those forecasted for late Wednesday into Thursday. Some may remember a story about a chap that was trapped by this storm in his car under a deep drift in the Highlands.  He survived suffocation because he was lucky enough to have tube in the car that he was able to push through the window and up through the snow.

fhttps://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?map=1&model=noaa&var=1&jaar=1978&maand=01&dag=28&uur=1200&h=0&tr=360&nmaps=24#mapref 

The latest ECM ensemble run for 10hPa suggests the chance of another wind reversal at the end of the month:

Yes, however we are already in a -AO/NAO and a had a SSW as well minor SW as two reversal of zonal winds which have all failed to provide us and proper sustained cold and snow - how many reversal of zonal winds to we need? We already had HLB prior to this SSW anyway - i just feel since the SSW we have seen anything but cold and more wetter and the SSW has (if anything) ruined things as we already had blocking over Greenland. I was speaking to to Aidan McGivern on Twitter re the last SSW on 5th January asking him why since the SSW we are seeing milder weather and a reduction in HLB: - Here is what he had to say:

CFS monthly anomaly charts going for a roughly average Feb but a rather cold March, with heights over Greenland dominant.

Meteociel - Modèle Numérique américain CFS (par mois)

 

The long range CFS model has plenty of eye candy from mid Feb onwards though. Only 654 hours out so probably just about nailed on I would say. 

 

I am sure Madrid will again goes round 2 snow storms while UK either sunny/cloudy cold and dry or cold rain.

 

Yes, however we are already in a -AO/NAO and a had a SSW as well minor SW as two reversal of zonal winds which have all failed to provide us and proper sustained cold and snow - how many reversal of zonal winds to we need? We already had HLB prior to this SSW anyway - i just feel since the SSW we have seen anything but cold and more wetter and the SSW has (if anything) ruined things as we already had blocking over Greenland. I was speaking to to Aidan McGivern on Twitter re the last SSW on 5th January asking him why since the SSW we are seeing milder weather and a reduction in HLB: - Here is what he had to say:

Aidan McGivern

 

@aidanweather

22h

Replying to

@SeanMoo88403784

Hi - there was a study last year that looked at past SSWs. In the past, when there was a Greenland high during onset of an SSW, there is often SW'ly winds a couple of weeks later. Very small sample size though, so caution needed, it just goes to show...

 

Every situation is different and you don't always get freezing easterlies. There has been a response in our weather from the SSW, it's just not been a 'beast from the east' style response. More of a southward-displaced jet stream.

My understanding is that we have not yet experienced any effects from SSW, this will show its hand around the end of the month.