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Theres no confusion the outlook is fairly mild in the south apart from a brief chilly spell. Here's London forecasts temps.8c, 12c, 11c, 10c , 8c, 7c, 7c,10c, 11c, 11c, 11c, 10c,10c, 10c,
Theres no confusion the outlook is fairly mild in the south apart from a brief chilly spell. Here's London forecasts temps.
8c, 12c, 11c, 10c , 8c, 7c, 7c,10c, 11c, 11c, 11c, 10c,10c, 10c,
Forecast using what model as that's not what the GFS run you were talking about shows, which is as below. If you're going to comment about it being mild whilst referencing a particular model run, by all means clarify that you're in fact using other information to come to that conclusion otherwise it's just misleading. For London that shows a few mild days then generally below average for the next 9-10 days.
Now if you mean fairly mild to be not cold and snowing then yes, it's fairly mild. If you're talking about versus the weather you'd expect for the time of year based on the long term averages then no it's not a mild picture for the next 9-10 days as per the GFS and broadly other model output.
Despite a lot of talk about SSWs and model confusion the reality is the NWP has been performing pretty well recently. Beyond about 7 days there is ALAWAYS uncertainty. I remain of the view that a lot of nonsense is spouted about SSWs in general. That's NOT to say they aren't an important player and should be ignored. However, looking at the 500hPa level remains the best way of forecasting short to medium term in the UK. Anything beyond that involves rolling a dice or looking at longer term forcing and recent climatology.
Are you only permitted to travel 3 miles?😂😎
Are you only permitted to travel 3 miles?
😂😎
Yes, about that, maybe 5 at most.
Forecast using what model as that's not what the GFS run you were talking about shows, which is as below. If you're going to comment about it being mild whilst referencing a particular model run, by all means clarify that you're in fact using other information to come to that conclusion otherwise it's just misleading. For London that shows a few mild days then generally below average for the next 9-10 days. Now if you mean fairly mild to be not cold and snowing then yes, it's fairly mild. If you're talking about versus the weather you'd expect for the time of year based on the long term averages then no it's not a mild picture for the next 9-10 days as per the GFS and broadly other model output.
I wasn't talking about the gfs. I was talking about ECM. The temps I quoted are from the bbc Meteogroup normally fairly accurate certainly better than the GFS which is normally 2 or 3c below actual.
Could not agree more Brian !!
I've been looking for the MetO press release about their HITOP (High top?) model and how it would improve forecasts. It was published several years ago. Can anyone locate it please?
Was it this Brian? https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-19584302
GFS 6z has 13c on 26th and 14c widely on the 27th. Remember you can normally add 2 or 3c to these.
I tend to agree with your comments in the context of what most people are looking for in this thread i.e cold enough for snow. There is a short spell of below average temperatures with little chance of snow and not much in the way of frosts. Then till the end of the runs it trends milder , become average or above average (which these days seems to be quoted as the heady 8C !) but with a degree of uncertainty although a fairly high certainty (as much as there ever is at that range!) of it not being particularly cold.
And you can normally discount it or at least treat with a massive pinch of salt when it is so synoptically different to the previous run and 8 days away.
Apologies just checked your original mild post and you you didn't specifically reference the GFS or any of the models, just stated it was looking mild.
The general point still stands though IMO but we'll have to agree to disagree
I linked this the other day but this site is quite good if you want to play around with the ECM data ECMWF 14-day ensemble weather forecast for Tunbridge Wells District | Meteologix.com You can get an idea of where the Op sits in the ens, along with upper and lower scatter etc. and as with the more widely available GFS ens data can check the T2M temps in similar format to the GFS charts.
The 2-3c underestimate of temps is sometimes true but FWIW the last cold spell was generally the other way round IMBY - lots of forecasts of 5-6c and ground temps of 0-3c instead. Given the generally chilly nature of the last few weeks I'd have said less moderation would occur than normal and there's less likelihood of the temps being under estimated than normal but that's purely a guess on my part.
Apologies just checked your original mild post and you you didn't specifically reference the GFS or any of the models, just stated it was looking mild.The general point still stands though IMO but we'll have to agree to disagreeI linked this the other day but this site is quite good if you want to play around with the ECM data ECMWF 14-day ensemble weather forecast for Tunbridge Wells District | Meteologix.com You can get an idea of where the Op sits in the ens, along with upper and lower scatter etc. and as with the more widely available GFS ens data can check the T2M temps in similar format to the GFS charts. The 2-3c underestimate of temps is sometimes true but FWIW the last cold spell was generally the other way round IMBY - lots of forecasts of 5-6c and ground temps of 0-3c instead. Given the generally chilly nature of the last few weeks I'd have said less moderation would occur than normal and there's less likelihood of the temps being under estimated than normal but that's purely a guess on my part.
No worries, I dont want a row it is only the weather after all.
Yes I'd agree the 2 or 3c under estimate which the ECM also has only really occurs when the weather is mild or warm. Not such a problem with cold spells.
Perfect. It's a good piece actually and I'd recommend people to read it.
OT but as I understand the rules in Scotland, you are allowed to start and finish your daily exercise up to 5 miles outside the boundary of your local council area (and there is no limit on how far you can go from that start point). It would still be a bit of a stretch to reach the mountains from 5 miles outside Aberdeen city limits...
I really doubt it! So temps of 15- 16c? - or maybe this is the met off 's new "wintry hazards" they were on about They didn't mention any return to prolonged mild weather or state anywhere that it will become very mild or warm.
Its definitely possible, there's going to be a big warm up in Spain and southern France and it could waft our way around the 26th/27th.
Hope this is a mild outlier?
I hope it does Tally, if it isn't going to snow then I want it as mild as possible.
That said, sometimes, exceptional mildness is a forerunner to something significantly colder, and even if this does materialise I don't think that spells curtains for winter, although I believe the cold will come in early March if at all.