Really odd that nobody is looking at the ECM charts instead of that CFS stuff!

https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/products/extended-zonal-mean-zonal-wind?area=nh&base_time=202010220000

https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/products/extended-anomaly-t?base_time=202010220000&projection=opencharts_europe&valid_time=202012070000

The latter link is the weekly temperature anomaly forecasts out to December. Close to or slightly below average then, as winter starts, average to above average for England at least. Not very exciting TBH, but worth keeping an eye on.

On one of Gavs longer range look at the models , CFS had November being Atlantic dominated and not having any blocking , this is the 2nd run on the trot the model shows a HP around our shores

Really odd that nobody is looking at the ECM charts instead of that CFS stuff!

https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/products/extended-zonal-mean-zonal-wind?area=nh&base_time=202010220000

https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/products/extended-anomaly-t?base_time=202010220000&projection=opencharts_europe&valid_time=202012070000

The latter link is the weekly temperature anomaly forecasts out to December. Close to or slightly below average then, as winter starts, average to above average for England at least. Not very exciting TBH, but worth keeping an eye on.

 

I don't know why people spend so much time with it either. If people want to use the NCEP suite the GEFS35 is now a better option.

Do ECM have weekly 850hPa temp anomalies? I had a quick look and couldn't find anything.

I'd like to compare them with the GEFS ones (weekly selection here https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/gefs-europe.aspx) because I have reservations about the 2m anomaly plots.

 

I don't know why people spend so much time with it either. 

Indeed, the default these days seems to be a big frosty cold tease in November, to be followed by 3 months of westerlies.

Ive no reason to suspect this year will be any different.

 

I don't know why people spend so much time with it either. If people want to use the NCEP suite the GEFS35 is now a better option.

Do ECM have weekly 850hPa temp anomalies? I had a quick look and couldn't find anything.

I'd like to compare them with the GEFS ones (weekly selection here https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/gefs-europe.aspx) because I have reservations about the 2m anomaly plots.

Because you can actually use the comment of Just For Fun at it and it throws up some eye candy charts that are few and far between , its a " look at what you could have won " model 

The links Darren provided are very good , I wouldn't have had a clue where to find them 

Thank you Darren 

 

Indeed, the default these days seems to be a big frosty cold tease in November, to be followed by 3 months of westerlies.

Ive no reason to suspect this year will be any different.

Our time will come , I am convinced of that 

Do ECM have weekly 850hPa temp anomalies? I had a quick look and couldn't find anything.

I'd like to compare them with the GEFS ones (weekly selection here https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/gefs-europe.aspx) because I have reservations about the 2m anomaly plots.

Here you go - they only plot them for selected locations. Reading is one of them:

https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/products/mofc_multi_eps_family_plumes?base_time=202010220000&city=Reading

EDIT: Doesn't look too dissimilar, especially in the short range. Bear in mind ECM only updates on Thursdays and Mondays, so the ECM charts are a bit out of date already!

EDIT 2:

https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/products/extended-anomaly-t?base_time=202010220000&projection=opencharts_europe&valid_time=202011020000

Click a spot on the map there and you'll get the 2M temp plumes from the weekly forecast.

The links Darren provided are very good , I wouldn't have had a clue where to find them

There are some undocumented ones too.

https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/products/medium-mslp-wind850?base_time=202010250000&projection=opencharts_europe&valid_time=202010250000

Click on the map and you'll get a meteogram for the location you clicked!

(That was the "holy grail" of charts back when ECMWF used to pick one at random as a freebie!)

 

There are some undocumented ones too.

https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/products/medium-mslp-wind850?base_time=202010250000&projection=opencharts_europe&valid_time=202010250000

Click on the map and you'll get a meteogram for the location you clicked!

(That was the "holy grail" of charts back when ECMWF used to pick one at random as a freebie!)

Cheers for that Darren 

 

Here you go - they only plot them for selected locations. Reading is one of them:

https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/products/mofc_multi_eps_family_plumes?base_time=202010220000&city=Reading

EDIT: Doesn't look too dissimilar, especially in the short range. Bear in mind ECM only updates on Thursdays and Mondays, so the ECM charts are a bit out of date already!

EDIT 2:

https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/products/extended-anomaly-t?base_time=202010220000&projection=opencharts_europe&valid_time=202011020000

Click a spot on the map there and you'll get the 2M temp plumes from the weekly forecast.

 The only thing I would conclude from the ECM and GEFS extended range forecasts is that things look fairly normal. It will be interesting to see if one or both pick up on a cold / very cold period at 30 days.  (GEFS is about 24 hours out of date when the update finishes)

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/gefs-35-day.aspx?loc=Reading

 

There are some undocumented ones too.

https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/products/medium-mslp-wind850?base_time=202010250000&projection=opencharts_europe&valid_time=202010250000

Click on the map and you'll get a meteogram for the location you clicked!

(That was the "holy grail" of charts back when ECMWF used to pick one at random as a freebie!)

The nearest available 'grid point' from me is just 3 km away. Very useful, and almost renders the use of the actual maps almost useless, except maybe for quick 'at a glance' bigger picture. 

The 80's were superb here , did so well .

1991 stands out and does 2010 and a few after and of course the Beast from The East a few years ago.

Banbury seems to do ok from the West ( due to a breakdown ) and we are far enough South East to benefit also from the continent .

BUT from a straight Northerly , a waste of  time 

I will never understand how December 2010 could have been the coldest December in the Met Office record by over a whole degree celcius, yet I seem to be the only person in the whole of Britain who was out there day after day revelling in the weeks of unprecedented cold, snow and ice which that statistic implies.

No one alive had been blessed with a December anything like that. Even the one December slightly colder in the CET record came long after Dickens' death, so even the man himself never experienced a Dickensian December remotely as cold as the one this country did just a decade ago.

But, you know. Global warming, our climate's heated up beyond redemption, and all that.

I will never understand how December 2010 could have been the coldest December in the Met Office record by over a whole degree celcius, yet I seem to be the only person in the whole of Britain who was out there day after day revelling in the weeks of unprecedented cold, snow and ice which that statistic implies.

If I recall correctly we had one significant fall of snow here in December 2010. The period mid Dec 2009 to mid Jan 2010 was far better with 3 big snow events. The truth is that in my locality December 2010 was statistically notable for the cold but nothing else. 

 

If I recall correctly we had one significant fall of snow here in December 2010. The period mid Dec 2009 to mid Jan 2010 was far better with 3 big snow events. The truth is that in my locality December 2010 was statistically notable for the cold but nothing else. 

Probably the same one as here.

18th December 2010 - short but heavy snow Saturday lunctime for about 2 hours and the only time London has had a red SWW from the Met Office to my knowledge. Icing on the cake for a memorable bitterly cold month

 weeks of unprecedented cold, snow and ice which that statistic implies.

And I can't understand how people think what they had applies to everyone. Here's my weather log from December 2010. The columns are max, min, grass min, snow or sleet falling, snow depth at 9AM (in cm) and comments.

01-Dec    2.7    1.1   -0.1    Yes    3    
02-Dec   -0.4   -1.7    1.2    Yes    17    max 18cm
03-Dec   -0.4   -8.6   -9.7    Yes    16    Over 60 hours of continuial snowfall
04-Dec    5.4    3      1.1           5     Rain AM & again PM
05-Dec    3     -2     -1.5           remnants    
06-Dec   -0.4   -2.2   -2             remnants    
07-Dec    2.8    0.8    0.6           remnants    
08-Dec    2.6   -2.1   -3.6           remnants    
09-Dec    3.7    1.6   -0.2           remnants    
10-Dec    7.3    4.1    2.5           remnants    
11-Dec    8.4    2      1.3            
12-Dec    5.9    0.2   -0.1            
13-Dec    3.3    2.6    2.3            
14-Dec    3.8    1.3    0.9            
15-Dec    4.5    3.2    2.7            
16-Dec    7.3   -3.3   -6.3    Yes          Temp fell from 6.8C @3 to 3.3C @4
17-Dec   -0.2   -6.7   -9.9                 Snow showers at work, none at home.
18-Dec    1     -6.3   -8.9    Yes          7cm @ 3PM -10C grass temp at 6:27AM
19-Dec    2     -8.6  -10.2    Yes    6                
20-Dec    0.7    0.3   -1      Yes    5    
21-Dec    3.2    1.6    0.7    Yes    9    thaw set in overnight 20/21
22-Dec    2.9    0.5    0.2           4    
23-Dec    2.6    1.1    0.4    Yes    Remnants    A few flakes mixed in with the rain
24-Dec    2.6   -1.5   -1.9           Remnants    
25-Dec   -0.1   -2.8   -4.5           Remnants    
26-Dec    1.9   -2.2   -3.9           Remnants    
27-Dec    3.2    2      1.1           Remnants    
28-Dec    5      5      4.6    Yes    Remnants    A few flakes mixed in with the rain
29-Dec    8.3    3.8    4.1            
30-Dec    5.5    3.5    3.5            
31-Dec    5.7    5      4.4            

Retron: I don't doubt your figures for a second.

But if there were hotspots such as yours on the Kent coast, it just goes to show how incredibly cold the bulk of the country must have been to record such a low final average for the month. 

My gripe is that the bulk of the country seems to have erased that experience from its collective consciousness. It's now taken as read that UK winters have been rubbish for 35 years, and will be for evermore. Every episode of wintriness, or month of record-breaking national cold, is just dismissed as merely localized or the wrong kind of snow.

Retron: I don't doubt your figures for a second.

But if there were hotspots such as yours on the Kent coast, it just goes to show how incredibly cold the bulk of the country must have been to record such a low final average for the month. 

My gripe is that the bulk of the country seems to have erased that experience from its collective consciousness. It's now taken as read that UK winters have been rubbish for 35 years, and will be for evermore. Every episode of wintriness, or month of record-breaking national cold, is just dismissed as merely localized or the wrong kind of snow.

I've not! One of the most remarkable spells of winter I can remember. 

However, for much of it, I was panicking we wouldn't get snow here. We had experienced heavy snow in late Nov - but that was on a day out to York. IMBY it had been Baltic but bone dry (save some freezing fog and the odd rime), and potential PPN bands for here that appeared in models were downgraded by the day itself. When one was modelled for Friday 17th, I kept everything crossed, and it delivered in spades. Could enjoy it better and relax once everywhere was white. 

I'd actually put the preceding winter as No1 of the decade, though. A less intense and shorter lived cold spell in the December at least gave us a good covering of snow on the ground for Xmas, then a thaw from Boxing Day, before winter returned, bringing the deepest snow here I can remember (a couple in my childhood may have been deeper, but I never measured back then) that lasted on the ground almost a month.

We had a very snowy Jan & Mar 2013, too (although all were within short-lived cold snaps). In fact, all falls since (we've had at least a half a cm covering every? subsequent winter) have been in frustratingly brief snaps, barring the BftE spell in 2018, and that was annoyingly dry here, with just a couple of 1cm falls, and it wasn't that even cold in this region.

Good to read, Saint.

The March episodes are a good illustration of the sort of thing I meant. March 2013 was cold but bone-dry down here in the West Country. A non-event. While March 2018 was extraordinary - well over six inches of snow on 1 March, rather spoilt by a thick layer of frozen rain on top. But then several more inches again on the 19th, and utterly perfect that time. And all this at just 32 m asl.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RwWPlT371I8

If I were of a certain inclination, I'd simply dismiss March 2013, 'cos it didn't snow here, while 1 March 2018 was useless because of the freezing rain, and 19 March was obviously too late to be any good, so I shouldn't have been out sledging the way I was. And there we go. We'll never have a proper winter again.