This thread is for all comments, discussion and analysis of temperatures in the UK during October, with particular emphasis on the Central England Temperature (CET), for the simple reason that it is the longest running temperature series in the world with over 360 years of data. But you can comment on any interesting temperature statistics or data from across the UK, including your own back yard. 

For those taking part in the competition all CET predictions for October should be sent directly to me via the forum private message system. Do not post them directly into the thread. 

Historic CET summary for October

1971-2000 10.4C (30 years) 

1981-2010 10.7C (30 years) 

2000-2019 11.2C (last 20 years) 

The warmest October in recent times was 13.3C in 2001, the warmest of record. 13C was also reached in 2005 and 2006. 2011, 2013, 2014 and 2017 all saw the CET close to 12.5C. 2003 was the coldest recent year at 9.2C. 2008 and 2012 were also below 10C. Last year was on the cool side at 10.0C.

Here is a chart of the October CET for all years since 1961

Direct link to larger version of the chart

Current model output  

GFS 850s consistency below average for the whole of the first half of October. Quite a striking trend there. Surface temperatures struggling to reach 14C in London on average.

GFS 850 https://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?model=gfs&var=2&geoid=49069&lid=ENS&bw=

GFS T2m https://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=gfs&var=5&run=12&lid=ENS&bw=

ECM looks no better based on the De Bilt data. 

ECM ENS http://cdn.knmi.nl/knmi/map/page/weer/waarschuwingen_verwachtingen/ensemble/detail/ensemble-verwachtingen-detail10.png

Met Office contingency planners outlook

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/forecast-temp-son-v2.pdf

Probability forecast for October suggesting something slightly above average is the most likely scenario but not much above 10C. The three month outlook seems much closer to average suggesting cooler conditions in late Autumn.

Rainfall for October looks average with wetter conditions beyond that.

Thanks GW.

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Thanks as ever GW, much appreciated, is the constant continuity of this execllent competition.

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I've gone for a sub-10°C month. I think we are due quite a cool October and the models at least for the time being, tend to keep us in cooler air. Of course that doesn't say anything concrete, as we've seen with this month for instance, but just a feeling...

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October actually hasn't been especially warm in recent years. Since 2014 we have only had one very mild one (2017) whereas prior to that they had been two bob a dozen for about a decade.
I'm sure the mild will return to the month but agreed, maybe not this year

Met Office Hadley             10.7c.        Anomaly        -1.4c. Provisional to 1st.

Metcheck                          10.23c       Anomaly        -0.28c

Netweather                       10.88c       Anomaly         0.49c 

Peasedown St John          10.12c      Anomaly         -0.35c.        

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When you look at the range of years GW has posted though on the graph, in the first half of that period, only 2 Octobers (1968 and 9) were >12°C.

Then in the second half, there are 8 >12°C. Half of those have been within the last decade. 

Prior to GWs graph only 1959 topped 12 since 1921!

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The period 1995-2014 saw a quite phenomenal number of very warm Octobers.
I still think we will smash 2001 one year though. It was quite a disappointing "record warm month" in many ways due to being very dull and wet. IIRC it was the warm nights that pushed it over the line.
Not this time though!

Met Office Hadley         10.8c        Anomaly         -1.3c Provisional to 2nd.

Metcheck                      11.20c      Anomaly         0.69c

Netweather                   11.38c      Anomaly         0.99c

Peasedown St John      11.1c         Anomaly        0.65c. 

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Met Office Hadley         11.1c.        Anomaly      -1.1c     Provisional to 3rd

Metcheck                      10.99c       Anomaly      0.48c

Netweather                   11.83c       Anomaly      1.44c

Peasedown St John      10.2c       Anomaly        -0.27c.  

 

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Here is the list of predictions for October

Table 1

Here is the latest October CET tracker

A cool start but the CET looks like staying fairly stable over the coming days so by mid-month it is moving closer to average but still below at that stage.

Chart 1

Table 1

Met Office Hadley             11.2c.        Anomaly       -1.0c. Provisional to 4th.

Metcheck                          10.93c       Anomaly       0.42c

Netweather                       11.48c       Anomaly       1.09c

Peasedown St John          10.6c         Anomaly       -0.13c

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Oh my goodness!  I’ve gone way above everyone else this month!  

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Met Office Hadley             11.4c.        Anomaly        - 0.9c Provisional to 5th.

Metcheck                          11.08c       Anomaly         0.57c

Netweather                       11.64c       Anomaly         1.25c

Peasedown St John         10.7c          Anomaly        0.23c.  

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Met Office Hadley           11.6c         Anomaly        -0.7c Provisional to 6th

Metcheck                        11.13c       Anomaly        0.62c

Netweather                     11.73c       Anomaly        1.34c

Peasedown St John        10.53c      Anomaly        0.6c.                 

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Met Office Hadley          11.7c       Anomaly         -0.5c provisional to 7thh.

Metcheck                       11.36c     Anomaly         0.85c

Netweather                    11.76c     Anomaly         1.37c

Peasedown St John       11.2c      Anomaly        0.73c.

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Met Office Hadley          11.7c       Anomaly        -0.4c Provisional to 8th

Metcheck                       11.14c     Anomaly        0.65c

Netweather                    11.87c     Anomaly        1.48c

Peasedown St John       11.15c     Anomaly         0.68c   

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Here is the latest October CET tracker

A cool start but the CET looks like staying fairly stable over the coming days so by mid-month it is moving closer to average but still below at that stage.

IMAGE. Members enable at bottom of page

Chart 1

IMAGE. Members enable at bottom of page

Table 1

 

Hadley aren't taking any notice! The CET keeps rising 

 

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Hadley aren't taking any notice! The CET keeps rising 

 

The nights have stayed mild (especially the night before last). Cooler weather has arrived now across England. It's looking quite unsettled and breezy so I'm not expecting nights to be especially cold but with suppressed daytime temperatures the CET should start to fall at least for a few days. Beyond about 7 days is still anyone's guess 

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